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Thread: Adam Dunnís 2007: Month by month

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    Red's fan mbgrayson's Avatar
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    Adam Dunnís 2007: Month by month

    Many in RedsZone have debated whethert the Reds should pick up Adam Dunn’s 2008 option. I thought a quick look at his 2007 stats, broken down month by month, might add some fuel to this debate(as if it needs any....).

    Home runs: 35
    April: 6
    May: 8
    June: 9
    July: 4
    August: 8

    OBP: .373
    April: .363
    May: .355
    June: .352
    July: .376
    August: .427

    Walks/Strikeouts/ BB-K rate: 76/144/.53
    April: 14/32/.44
    May: 16/41/.39
    June: 9/25/.36
    July: 19/28/.68
    August: 18/18/1.0

    Slugging Percentage: .557
    April: .511
    May: .573
    June: .617
    July: .455
    August: .638

    OPS: .929
    April: .874
    May: .928
    June: .969
    July: .831
    August: 1.065

    Strikeout rate: 32.6%
    April: 31.4%
    May: 34.5%
    June: 24.3%
    July: 26.2%
    August: 20.7%

    I don’t know exactly why, but Dunn’s strikeout rate has been dropping since May. I thought I had noticed this, and the stats bear it out.

    When we see that including 2007, Dunn’s career strikeout rate is 32.7%, we can see that when he cuts down on strikeouts his OBP numbers take a nice upward turn. Not the striking out a fourth of the time is good, but is better than a third of the time.

    Last year, Dunn’s hitting dropped dramatically in August and September. So far, no sign of a repeat. It will be interesting to see if the reduced K rate continues through the end of the year. If this trend continues, it may signal a change in approach by Dunn. If not, it probably just signifies a ‘hot streak’.
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    Member JaxRed's Avatar
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    Re: Adam Dunnís 2007: Month by month

    Nice research
    The lowest acceptable payroll amount for ownership to show they are not greedy pigs is 15 million more than they are currently paying. No matter what that currently is.

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    Re: Adam Dunnís 2007: Month by month

    good stuff.
    "Even a bad day at the ballpark beats the snot out of most other good days. I'll take my scorecard and pencil and beer and hot dog and rage at the dips and cheer at the highs, but I'm not ever going to stop loving this game and this team and nobody will ever take that away from me." Roy Tucker October 2010

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    Re: Adam Dunnís 2007: Month by month

    For me, Dunn's performance lately has answered 1 of 2 big questions I had about him after last year:

    1. Does he get worn done and need more rest?
    Answer, 2007: Not necessarily.

    2. Does he struggle in a pennant race?
    Answer, 2007: What's a pennant race?

    I think he's improving now -- great to see. I really hope the Reds see the same thing and decide to keep him over Griffey. VERY interesting that Votto has been in RF in Louisville recently...........
    "Baseball is a very, very complex business. It's more of a people business than most businesses." - Bob Castellini

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    2009: Fail Ltlabner's Avatar
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    Re: Adam Dunnís 2007: Month by month

    Wait a sec....I thought it was proven beyond a shadow of a doubt that Dunn went on vacation in August and September and that's why no GM want's any part of him.
    a super volcano of ridonkulous suckitude.

    I simply don't have access to a "cares about RBI" place in my psyche. There is a "mildly curious about OBI%" alcove just before the acid filled lake guarded by robot snipers with lasers which leads to the "cares about RBI" antechamber though. - Nate

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    High five! nate's Avatar
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    Re: Adam Dunnís 2007: Month by month

    Quote Originally Posted by Ltlabner View Post
    Wait a sec....I thought it was proven beyond a shadow of a doubt that Dunn went on vacation in August and September and that's why no GM want's any part of him.
    Hello?

    Its greed-driven production.

    I'll bet his SPI's plummet this month.
    "Bring on Rod Stupid!"

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    The Lineups stink. KronoRed's Avatar
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    Re: Adam Dunnís 2007: Month by month

    I like that his OBP is taking anice upward turn
    Go Gators!

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    Mon chou Choo vaticanplum's Avatar
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    Re: Adam Dunnís 2007: Month by month

    Quote Originally Posted by lollipopcurve View Post
    2. Does he struggle in a pennant race?
    Answer, 2007: What's a pennant race?
    Touche

    What is it about Adam Dunn in June? I'm too lazy to look it up, but isn't that consistently his monster month?

    Although I love the fact that he consistently plays 160 games a year, it does make me wonder if he shouldn't sit a little more often late in the season. That's not a brain surgeon statement, I guess.
    There is no such thing as a pitching prospect.

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    Red's fan mbgrayson's Avatar
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    Re: Adam Dunnís 2007: Month by month

    [Updated stats through September 15th, 2007]

    Home runs: 39
    April: 6
    May: 8
    June: 9
    July: 4
    August: 9
    September: 3

    OBP: .387
    April: .363
    May: .355
    June: .352
    July: .376
    August: .443
    September: .472

    Walks/Strikeouts/ BB-K rate: 94/158/.59
    April: 14/32/.44
    May: 16/41/.39
    June: 9/25/.36
    July: 19/28/.68
    August: 26/23/1.13
    September: 10/9/1.11

    Slugging Percentage: .564
    April: .511
    May: .573
    June: .617
    July: .455
    August: .621
    September: .643

    OPS: .951
    April: .874
    May: .928
    June: .969
    July: .831
    August: 1.065
    September: 1.115

    Strikeout rate: 26.5%
    April: 31.4%
    May: 34.5%
    June: 24.3%
    July: 26.2%
    August: 20.35%
    September: 17.3%

    Dunn’s strikeout rate has continued dropping since May.

    As of now, mid-September, I think it is clear that Adam Dunn has changed his hitting approach. This is more than just a power streak, which we have seen before from Adam. It now looks to be a season long trend of improvement: better average, better K rate, better OPS each month.

    He has also been routinely going the other way with the ball, and consciously putting the ball in play more with runners on base.

    This is a very encouraging trend.
    Last edited by mbgrayson; 09-16-2007 at 11:59 AM.
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    Re: Adam Dunnís 2007: Month by month

    A little off-topic but...I was just looking at the boxscore from last night's game and I noticed that they said Dunn was HBP instead of giving him a walk. That is a terrible scoring. The 3-0 pitch was inside but it clearly didn't hit him. It was a good four inches from hitting him. So instead of him now having 95 walks he's still at 94. That could end up costing him a 100 walk season. It's not a huge deal but it's still a minor milestone you would like to see him reach.

    Great post, mbgrayson. Adam Dunn was a great, great hitter before but these last few months he's really elevated his status to superstar level. Everytime he steps up to the plate you feel he is a lock to reach base. If this carries over into next season, you could be looking at a MVP.

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    Member OnBaseMachine's Avatar
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    Re: Adam Dunnís 2007: Month by month

    Adam Dunn

    Pre ASB: .258 BA/.356 OBP/.549 SLG - .905 OPS

    306 AB, 55 runs, 13 2B, 24 HR, 58 RBI, 45 BB/105 K

    Post ASB: .286 BA/.431 OBP/.587 SLG - 1.018 OPS

    196 AB, 45 runs, 14 2B, 15 HR, 45 RBI, 49 BB/53 K

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    Please come again pedro's Avatar
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    Re: Adam Dunnís 2007: Month by month

    Quote Originally Posted by OnBaseMachine View Post
    A little off-topic but...I was just looking at the boxscore from last night's game and I noticed that they said Dunn was HBP instead of giving him a walk. That is a terrible scoring. The 3-0 pitch was inside but it clearly didn't hit him. It was a good four inches from hitting him. So instead of him now having 95 walks he's still at 94. That could end up costing him a 100 walk season. It's not a huge deal but it's still a minor milestone you would like to see him reach.

    Great post, mbgrayson. Adam Dunn was a great, great hitter before but these last few months he's really elevated his status to superstar level. Everytime he steps up to the plate you feel he is a lock to reach base. If this carries over into next season, you could be looking at a MVP.
    It did hit his shirt.
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    Re: Adam Dunnís 2007: Month by month

    If people take a look and notice, Dunn's hit rates per PAs have jumped around and show no real trend despite his strikeout rate trending down. His walk rate, however, has jumped up in the past few months, meaning what we knew all along is correct in that a reduction in strikeouts will likely lead to an increase in walks (not really an increase in hits). The increase in walks directly increases OBP, and it also cuts down on the number of AB, which in turn raises BA, SLG and OPS.

    At any rate, hopefully Dunn's new surge was soon enough for the Reds to actually be able to commit to a new deal with him. Either pick up the option and extend him for three more years after 2008, or scrap the option and extend him four more years. The Reds need to make sure Dunn's locked up through 2011, as that type of deal would carry Dunn right through his peak years and have him under the Reds' control next to Harang and Arroyo.

    FWIW, here's Dunn since August 1st ...
    Code:
      G   PA  AB  R   H  2B 3B HR RBI  BB IBB  SO HBP  SH  SF GDP  SB CS   BA   OBP   SLG   OPS
    +---+---+---+---+---+--+--+--+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+--+-----+-----+-----+-----+
      40 168 129  35  38  7  0 12  36  36   4  32   2   0   1   2   1  0  .295  .452  .628 1.080
    Last edited by Cyclone792; 09-16-2007 at 01:48 PM.
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    SERP Emeritus paintmered's Avatar
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    Re: Adam Dunnís 2007: Month by month

    Quote Originally Posted by OnBaseMachine View Post
    Adam Dunn

    Pre ASB: .258 BA/.356 OBP/.549 SLG - .905 OPS

    306 AB, 55 runs, 13 2B, 24 HR, 58 RBI, 45 BB/105 K

    Post ASB: .286 BA/.431 OBP/.587 SLG - 1.018 OPS

    196 AB, 45 runs, 14 2B, 15 HR, 45 RBI, 49 BB/53 K

    Maybe Marty is doing us all a favor by shouting to the world all of Adam's faults and keeping his perceived value low. If the league catches wind of these numbers, $13 million/year will start to look like a steal.

    When will the Reds announce if his option is picked up?
    What if this wasn't a rhetorical question?

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    Five Tool Fool jojo's Avatar
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    Re: Adam Dunnís 2007: Month by month

    I think we fans make way too much out of small samples so I'm a skeptic that we're watching any transformation.

    However as cyclone indicated, Dunn has all but forced the Reds to pick up his option and his second half could have implications for the Reds roster for the next several years.
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner


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