We have had a huge drop off in productivity this year from Todd Coffey:
MLB Innings: 78.0
ERA- 3.58
Whip- 1.44
K/9- 6.92
BB/K- 3.12
HR/9- .81

MLB Innings: 44.2
ERA- 6.04
Whip- 1.75
K/9- 7.25
BB/K- 3.43
HR/9- 2.22

Home/Road ERA
2006: 3.63/3.52
2007: 7.30/4.50

Home/Road HRs allowed:
2006: 3/4
2007: 8/3

Month by month ERA:
April .60
May 1.80
June 5.84
July 5.59
August 5.79
September 2.46
April 6.57
May 3.18
June 3.12
July 8.74
August 27.00(Only 2 MLB games)
September ??

After carefully analyzing his stats, I have one theory that should be pursued. It looks to me like he has gotten too predictable on throwing his first pitch, either by type of pitch or location. Opposing batters are teeing off on his first pitch. They are putting it in play more often, and are hitting .514 this year when they put that first pitch in play. It seems to me that Todd needs to pitch on the corners or miss more on the first pitch, to keep batters off balance.

1st pitches (1st pitch Abs/Balls In Play/Hits/Strikes/Balls)
2005: 181/40/11/114/27
2006: 225/41/8/144/40
2007: 142/35/18/99/19

2005: 22.1% of first pitches put in play(.275 BAA), 63% strikes, and 14.9% balls.
2006: 18.2% of first pitches put in play(.195 BAA), 64% strikes, and 17.8% balls.
2007: 24.6% of first pitches put in play(.514 BAA), 69.7% strikes, and 13.4% balls.

Todd’s weight:
Coffey was interviewed on Reds Reporter back in 2005. He was asked this question: " I read recently in the Dayton Daily News that you've lost something like 80 pounds since being drafted. What was your motivation to lose that weight? Did the Reds encourage you to slim down?"
Coffey: "Yes, I was 305 and I came in the next spring at 212, and now I'm at 230. It was a lot of hard work but worth it. The reds were like "lose the weight or go play football".

2005 Reds Media Guide: 230
2006 Reds Media Guide: 230
2007 Reds Media Guide: 255
Are these still accurate weights? There is this photo floating around.

So there are these three things I notice: first pitches too predictable, too many HRs, and his weight.

Any other ideas? I thik his velocity is still mid 90s, but I don't have any good data on that.