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Thread: People's feelings about them may have changed but the Reds haven't....

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    Five Tool Fool jojo's Avatar
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    People's feelings about them may have changed but the Reds haven't....

    Hey all. This was posted by Lance McAllister on his blog today:

    Quote Originally Posted by lance"the counting stats guy"
    This Reds job is now more attractive to potential managers than it was two months ago. I was told at the time of Narron's firing that two unemployed "potential" candidates would not touch this situation during the 2007 season because of how big a mess it was. That mess isn't as messy now.
    I've enjoyed every second of the Pete Mackanin era so far but I don't think '08 is any brighter now than it was for the team before PM took the helm. I'd argue that the Reds situation today hasn't changed at all from what it was 2 months ago with the exception that now their W-L record is in line with their pythag record. It's the same personnel, same farm, same FO, same prevailing philosophy and MO.

    In general we as fans make way too much of results in relatively small time frames. This team after July 3rd is no more fixed/turning a corner this year than the roster that was 12 games over .500 during the first half of the '06 season had turned a corner last season. In essence we're seeing that happy side of random. (BTW, RMR authored a great post on true skill level and randomness here)

    I'd submit that any managerial candidate that now would consider the job when he wouldn't have 2 months ago should automatically be crossed off of the list of potential candidates because to have that view necessitates an approach to player evaluation that would make them closer to part of the problem than part of the solution.

    So what do you think?
    Last edited by jojo; 08-26-2007 at 05:47 PM.
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

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  3. #2
    Your killin' me Smalls! StillFunkyB's Avatar
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    Re: People's feeling may have changed but the Reds haven't....

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post
    Hey all. This was posted by Lance McAllister on his blog today:



    I've enjoyed every second of the Pete Mackanin era so far but I don't think '08 is any brighter now than it was for the team before PM took the helm. I'd argue that the Reds situation today hasn't changed at all from what it was 2 months ago with the exception that now their W-L record is in line with their pythag record. It's the same personnel, same farm, same FO, same prevailing philosophy and MO.

    In general we as fans make way too much of results in relatively small time frames. This team after July 3rd is no more fixed/turning a corner this year than the roster that was 12 games over .500 during the first half of the '06 season had turned a corner last season. In essence we're seeing that happy side of random. (BTW, RMR authored a great post on true skill level and randomness here)

    I'd submit that any managerial candidate that now would consider the job when he wouldn't have 2 months ago should automatically be crossed of the list of potential candidates because to have that view necessitates an approach to player evaluation that would make them closer to part of the problem than part of the solution.

    So what do you think?
    I agree with you.

    Though this does feel better than 2 months ago.
    "And the fact that watching him pitch is like having someone poop on your soul." FCB on Gary Majewski

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    BobC, get a legit F.O.! Mario-Rijo's Avatar
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    Re: People's feelings about them may have changed but the Reds haven't....

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post
    Hey all. This was posted by Lance McAllister on his blog today:



    I've enjoyed every second of the Pete Mackanin era so far but I don't think '08 is any brighter now than it was for the team before PM took the helm. I'd argue that the Reds situation today hasn't changed at all from what it was 2 months ago with the exception that now their W-L record is in line with their pythag record. It's the same personnel, same farm, same FO, same prevailing philosophy and MO.

    In general we as fans make way too much of results in relatively small time frames. This team after July 3rd is no more fixed/turning a corner this year than the roster that was 12 games over .500 during the first half of the '06 season had turned a corner last season. In essence we're seeing that happy side of random. (BTW, RMR authored a great post on true skill level and randomness here)

    I'd submit that any managerial candidate that now would consider the job when he wouldn't have 2 months ago should automatically be crossed off of the list of potential candidates because to have that view necessitates an approach to player evaluation that would make them closer to part of the problem than part of the solution.

    So what do you think?
    Oh I agree whole heartedly, if he can't see the forest for the trees what kind of guide is he?

    One thing I do disagree with in that paragraph is that the Reds have changed. They are Narronless at the helm which should be good enough in itself for about 3-4 more wins, and with a guy like Pete he is good enough for another 2-3 assuming he continues to use the same approach if he get's another year at it. So all in all switching managers improved this team another 5-7 wins which makes them a changed team IMHO.
    "You can't let praise or criticism get to you. It's a weakness to get caught up in either one."

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    Re: People's feelings about them may have changed but the Reds haven't....

    The big difference is that they are finally playing like a "team." I don't know if it's Mack, I don't know if it's mysterious leadership in the clubhouse, a spark underneath their rear-ends...I don't know. It has certainly made a difference though and it reminds me of the bright spots of the 2006 season.

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    High five! nate's Avatar
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    Re: People's feelings about them may have changed but the Reds haven't....

    Are they better? No, but I think Pete has coax their Pythag out of them. They are most certainly more fun to watch and have made the season enjoyable again.
    "Bring on Rod Stupid!"

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    Member Topcat's Avatar
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    Re: People's feelings about them may have changed but the Reds haven't....

    Quote Originally Posted by fearofpopvol1 View Post
    The big difference is that they are finally playing like a "team." I don't know if it's Mack, I don't know if it's mysterious leadership in the clubhouse, a spark underneath their rear-ends...I don't know. It has certainly made a difference though and it reminds me of the bright spots of the 2006 season.

    I think it is Mack, He is Like Kep and Burton and Majik along with giving a shot to Shearn has reached into the soul of all guys who dream of the Majors and finally getting there shot. Mack is showing faith and trusting his players and the attitude has shaken the vets out of the playing out the string , instead he has instilled pride and faith in the Players and they are rewarding his faith in them.
    2006 Redzone mock Draftee's- 1(st) Daniel Bard(redsox), 1(st sup)( Jordan Walden (Angels), 2(nd) rd.- Zach Britton(Orioles), 3(rd) Blair Erickson(Cardinals), 3(rd) Tim Norton( Yankees),(cuz its a Tim Hortons thing

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    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: People's feelings about them may have changed but the Reds haven't....

    I think they've changed. The team that broke spring training is missing its worst players. Season ending injuries to Freel, Milton and Castro. Dumpings of Moeller, Conine and Lohse. Cormier retires. Saarloos, Coffey and Santos in the minors. That is more than a third of the roster replaced and its the worst guys (except I liked Coffey and Freel has his uses) no longer here. Add in a horrible manager removed and this is quite a different team.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

    Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS

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    Haunted by walks
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    Re: People's feelings about them may have changed but the Reds haven't....

    Why would you hire somebody who's only interested after someone else has turned things around?

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    Mon chou Choo vaticanplum's Avatar
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    Re: People's feelings about them may have changed but the Reds haven't....

    Quote Originally Posted by BCubb2003 View Post
    Why would you hire somebody who's only interested after someone else has turned things around?
    For one of the same reasons directors hire established actors who are used to doing the same thing movie after movie instead of hiring talent that will give a better performance, but require more direction and help. I guess the word might be laziness?

    If the team's recent playing has made it more attractive to good managers, I don't really care if it's smoke and mirrors or not. If a truly good manager wants to come to Cincinnati because of Montgomery Inn, hire a chef and fire up the grill, I say.
    There is no such thing as a pitching prospect.

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    Member paulrichjr's Avatar
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    Re: People's feelings about them may have changed but the Reds haven't....

    I just can't understand how this team is in "such as mess." There was talent on this team in April, May, June, July and still today. A team that has players like Phillips, Grif, Dunn, Harang, Arroyo, and Hamilton should never never never be as bad as they were at the beginning of the year. This team didn't have any leadership and now it does. I don't believe this garbage of a manager is only worth 5 wins or so either. This "might" be true when it comes to in game situations but it is not true when it comes to providing leadership.

    I don't remember who wrote the post earlier in the year about Narron's use of the bullpen (talked about warming guys up all the time and leaving them in for just one batter) but that post more than anything made me realize just how bad Narron was at managing a bullpen. I honestly think his inability to manage a bullpen sucked the life out of a team that is better on paper than any team in the NL Central except maybe Milwaukee. Face the facts guys...This team is not that bad...in fact they might even be decent.
    Tim McCarver: Baseball Quotes
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  12. #11
    Five Tool Fool jojo's Avatar
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    Re: People's feelings about them may have changed but the Reds haven't....

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    I think they've changed. The team that broke spring training is missing its worst players. Season ending injuries to Freel, Milton and Castro. Dumpings of Moeller, Conine and Lohse. Cormier retires. Saarloos, Coffey and Santos in the minors. That is more than a third of the roster replaced and its the worst guys (except I liked Coffey and Freel has his uses) no longer here. Add in a horrible manager removed and this is quite a different team.
    I think you make a pretty good point about the anchors.
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

  13. #12
    I thought you'd be bigger OldXOhio's Avatar
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    Re: People's feelings about them may have changed but the Reds haven't....

    Quote Originally Posted by paulrichjr View Post
    I just can't understand how this team is in "such as mess." There was talent on this team in April, May, June, July and still today. A team that has players like Phillips, Grif, Dunn, Harang, Arroyo, and Hamilton should never never never be as bad as they were at the beginning of the year. This team didn't have any leadership and now it does. I don't believe this garbage of a manager is only worth 5 wins or so either. This "might" be true when it comes to in game situations but it is not true when it comes to providing leadership.

    I don't remember who wrote the post earlier in the year about Narron's use of the bullpen (talked about warming guys up all the time and leaving them in for just one batter) but that post more than anything made me realize just how bad Narron was at managing a bullpen. I honestly think his inability to manage a bullpen sucked the life out of a team that is better on paper than any team in the NL Central except maybe Milwaukee. Face the facts guys...This team is not that bad...in fact they might even be decent.
    If they're playing better and their record is better, guess what? They're better. No one is saying they've suddenly become world beaters - they've simply been playing a better brand of ball. The OF play has been steadied by having Hamilton back; Keppinger has been a solid fill in while the team's been without Freel and Gonzalez. The pen has improved with the return of Bray and the development of Burton. The rotation, albeit still a huge unknown, is finally getting the pitching it thought it would out of Harang and Arroyo (3.9 era since the AS break) combined. Credit Pete, credit WK...hell credit Jerry Narron if you want to. It's now nearly a 50 game stretch, in mid-season mind you, that they've been doing this. As far as I can tell, they're about one solid SP away from being right there with the Cubs. I agree, they're a decent ballclub. Not great, just not as miserable as they looked in May and June.
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  14. #13
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: People's feelings about them may have changed but the Reds haven't....

    What's changed is that the assets accumulated are asserting themselves. Burton is showing himself a capable reliever as McBeth does the same in AAA. Jay Bruce and Joey Votto are tearing up the minors. Phillips continues to put up sexy numbers, their actual value aside. Dunn is "putting it together", aka doing what he's done for 4 years running. And Harang is finally getting his due as a legitimate ace.

    So, no, from one perspective, things haven't changed since Narron was given the boot. However, I think the organization is maturing, if you will. Perhaps that's due to Mac in part, perhaps not. Bottom line, there are some positive things to work with, they just might not have been as evident to the baseball tonight crowd prior to the last 40 games.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

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    Member Sea Ray's Avatar
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    Re: People's feelings about them may have changed but the Reds haven't....

    Things have changed since Mack took over. The next manager will not have as many holes to fill as previously thought. You can now pencil in roles for next year for Bray, Burton, Keppinger and Hopper. Maybe even Maj. I agree with Lance. This isn't as huge a rebuilding job as it looked before and that'll attract more managers.

  16. #15
    Member paulrichjr's Avatar
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    Re: People's feelings about them may have changed but the Reds haven't....

    Does anyone know how many games we lost in the 8th inning this year? I think the number was insanely high until Mack took over. An awesome, tremendous, 1927 Yankees team could not go through what the Reds went through early this year with the bullpen and not be tremendously affected. It all boils down to a manager using guys in their correct spots and not wasting arms by wearing them down warming up and then presto all of the bad karma went away.

    A great bullpen can make an average team great - (1990 Reds) while an above average to average team can be made to look like the worst team in baseball with a bad one (2007 Reds).
    Tim McCarver: Baseball Quotes
    I remember one time going out to the mound to talk with Bob Gibson. He told me to get back behind the batter, that the only thing I knew about pitching was that it was hard to hit.


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