JoJo posted this on the Old Red Guard, and I thought it deserved some attention by us deemed not worthy enough.
"Hey all. This was posted by Lance McAllister on his blog today:
Originally Posted by lance"the counting stats guy"
This Reds job is now more attractive to potential managers than it was two months ago. I was told at the time of Narron's firing that two unemployed "potential" candidates would not touch this situation during the 2007 season because of how big a mess it was. That mess isn't as messy now.
I've enjoyed every second of the Pete Mackanin era so far but I don't think '08 is any brighter now than it was for the team before PM took the helm. I'd argue that the Reds situation today hasn't changed at all from what it was 2 months ago with the exception that now their W-L record is in line with their pythag record. It's the same personnel, same farm, same FO, same prevailing philosophy and MO.
In general we as fans make way too much of results in relatively small time frames. This team after July 3rd is no more fixed/turning a corner this year than the roster that was 12 games over .500 during the first half of the '06 season had turned a corner last season. In essence we're seeing that happy side of random. (BTW, RMR authored a great post on true skill level and randomness here)
I'd submit that any managerial candidate that now would consider the job when he wouldn't have 2 months ago should automatically be crossed off of the list of potential candidates because to have that view necessitates an approach to player evaluation that would make them closer to part of the problem than part of the solution.
So what do you think?"