Turn Off Ads?
Page 1 of 2 12 LastLast
Results 1 to 15 of 23

Thread: Should the Reds go Moose hunting?

  1. #1
    Lark11 11BarryLarkin11's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jun 2005
    Location
    Earth
    Posts
    244

    Should the Reds go Moose hunting?

    There's an interesting situation unraveling in the Bronx with Mike Mussina. If the Yankees decide to stick with Ian Kennedy, then there is a good chance that Mussina will be dealt, as he is not a viable an option in the bullpen. In his entire MLB career, Mussina has never pitched even a single inning as a reliever. Given the possibility that the Yankees want to move Mussina and the Reds perpetual need for another quality starting pitcher, the situation begs the question of whether the Reds should attempt to acquire Mussina.


    THE TRADE IDEA

    Given that the waiver trade deadline is approaching, it would seem to make sense for the Reds to attempt to acquire Mussina now. Given his lower level of performance in 2007 and his high salary, Mussina would likely clear waivers. That would enable him to be traded before the deadline on August 31.

    The Yankee bullpen currently lacks lefthanded pitching. Given that, the Reds could try to trade Mike Stanton to the Yankees for Mike Mussina. Mike Stanton also is likely to clear waivers, as his performance does not justify his salary. Also, Stanton has a long history of pitching for the Yankees, so he might prove to be an attractive option.

    The Yankees would be able to shed payroll in the deal and *possibly* improve their bullpen, by adding an left-hander with substantial post-season experience to the team. Given that the Yankees are pushing for the playoffs, Stanton is someone who could improve their chances of reaching the post-season.

    Maybe the Reds would have to add something else to the deal (a second tier prospect?) for it to make sense for the Yankees, but I think those should be the two principle players. Both teams subtract a player they don't need, improve their salary situation, and add a player who may be able to help them reach their respective goals.

    Given that the structure of the deal makes some degree of sense, the question then becomes, is Mike Mussina a good bet to bounce back in 2008?

    MUSSINA'S PERFORMANCE

    Mussina's performance in 2007 has not been stellar, but is it indicative of a poor 2008 season?

    Year:___ERA__WHIP__BB/9____K/9___GB/FB___HR/9
    2007:___5.53__1.49____2.1___5.5____1.09____1.02
    2006:___3.51__1.11____1.6___7.8____1.07____1.00
    Career:__3.70__1.19____2.0___7.1____1.14____0.97

    Mussina has maintained his walk rate, groundball/flyball ratio, and his homerun rate. His ERA and WHIP have skyrocketed because his strikeout rate has fallen. His K/9 is currently about 1.5 strikeouts per nine innings below his career rate. A 5.5 K/9 is still high enough for a pitcher to maintain long-term success, but clearly Mussina would like to miss a few more bats.

    Given that Mussina's strikeout rate has fallen by ~1.5 K/9, you would expect some increase in hits allowed. However, Mussina is giving up almost 3 more hits per nine innings than before, which seems too high.

    Year:___H/9__Strand Rate
    2007:__11.29___63.5%
    2006:__8.39___72.1%
    Career:__8.67__71.9%

    That said, Mussina is suffering from some poor hit luck. Mussina's BABIP for 2007 is high at .348. Another problem with his 2007 performance is his 63.5% Strand Rate, which is well below his career rate of 71.9%. If BABIP is a measure of how many balls in play will fall in for hits, then Strand Rate is a measure of how those hits are distributed. Obviously, clusters of hits will result in more runs allowed than a more well dispersed pattern. Mussina has suffered from both poor hit luck and poor distribution of hits in 2007.

    If you look at his pitch data, his 2007 season has seen him throw a similar amount of both strikes (66%) and first pitch strikes (64%). He's also been consistent in the types of counts in which he has worked, as 2% of the Plate Appearances he has seen have been 3-0 counts and 19% have been 0-2 counts. All of those rates are in line with his career performance, but the one statistic that stands out is his Contact Rate.

    This season, Mussina has just been more hittable. He is getting fewer swings and misses than in years past. In 2007, when batters have swung at Mussina's pitches they have made contact 86% of the time, which is up from his 81% career and 81% 2006 mark. It's difficult to be successful in the majors if you aren't missing more bats than that, so it is cause for concern.

    So, the $10M question is whether the decreasing strikeout rate is a sign of father time catching up to him or is it something that he can bounce back from?


    CONTRACT IMPLICATIONS

    In the offseason, the Yankees signed Mike Mussina to a two year contract extension. The terms of the contract included salaries of $11,000,000 in 2007 and $11,000,000 in 2008.

    The Reds signed Mike Stanton to a contract which included a $2,000,000 salary in 2007, a $3,000,000 in 2008, and a $2,500,000 club option for 2009. The 2009 option comes with a $500,000 buyout.

    So, if the Reds could use Mike Stanton and his contract to reduce the amount of money and the inherent risk in acquiring Mike Mussina. If the Reds swapped Stanton for Mussina, then they would save around $3.75M on Stanton, which would reduce their net salary obligation on Mussina to $7,250,000 for 2008. Given the contracts handed out to free agent pitchers last offseason, $7.25M could be a bargain for a pitcher of Mussina's caliber.

    By lowering the amount owed to Mussina in 2008, the Reds would also be reducing the inherent risk that he won't provide the amount of production needed for his salary. The lower the salary, the more likely the Reds will get their money's worth out of Mussina.

    LEAGUE COMPARISON


    Another factor at work in determining the risk on Mussina is the switch from the AL East to the NL Central. Given the payroll explosion in the AL East and the existence of the DH, there are some strong offenses in that division. By moving from the AL East to the NL Central, Mussina would be facing weaker offensive lineups and his numbers would likely improve.

    In 2007, the non-Yankee AL East teams have scored 4.8 runs per game (2528/528). The non-Reds NL Central teams have scored 4.5 runs per game (2981/657). A switch from the Yankees to the Reds would allow Mussina to face offenses that score fewer runs per game. It worked with Bronson, maybe it'll work again with Moose.


    FINAL THOUGHTS

    Given the needs of both teams, this might be a deal worth considering. The offseason free agent starting pitcher pool is weak and the Reds may need to look elsewhere to fill out their rotation. The Yankees have three young starters in Phillip Hughes, Joba Chamberlain, and Ian Kennedy who could be ready to fill out the rotation with Andy Pettite and Chien-Ming Wang in 2008. Accordingly, they may not have much need for Mike Mussina. However, the Yankees could be interested in fan favorite Mike Stanton as a situational lefty to help them out in October.

    Mike Mussina does have no trade protection, but with some convincing maybe he'd be willing to hang his hat in Cincy. It'll be interesting to see what happens to Mussina as the waiver trade deadline approaches, but a 1-2-3 of Harang, Mussina, and Arroyo could be a big improvement in Cincy in 2008.

    For the Reds, it all depends on risk and Mussina would seem to be a lesser risk than throwing ~$10,000,000 at a league average starting pitcher in free agency.
    Last edited by 11BarryLarkin11; 08-31-2007 at 12:25 AM.

  2. Turn Off Ads?
  3. #2
    Pitching is the thing WVRedsFan's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2000
    Location
    Rainelle, WV
    Posts
    8,110

    Re: Should the Reds go Moose hunting?

    NO.

    I'd rather take my chances with Beslile developing and a couple of the kids coming up. $11 million? No way. Getting rid of Stanton sounds good, but I'd eat his salary before I'd trade him for Mike M.

  4. #3
    Member schroomytunes's Avatar
    Join Date
    Sep 2002
    Location
    wilmington n.c.
    Posts
    957

    Re: Should the Reds go Moose hunting?

    No I think Mussina's days are done, Stanton's contract is easier to swallow than Moose's. I too agree I would rather have Belisle in the 5th spot and let him continue to grow as the 5th starter, remember this is only his first year as a full time starter! As far as the rotation goes in 08, I see it as being this:

    1)Harang
    2)Arroyo
    3) Free Agent Acq.
    4)Bailey
    5)Belisle

    I would rather use any $$$ on acquiring a steady guy in the bullpen, and improving our bench depth, and getting that solid #3 starter.

  5. #4
    The Lineups stink. KronoRed's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jun 2003
    Location
    West N. Carolina
    Posts
    55,643

    Re: Should the Reds go Moose hunting?

    Unless the yanks pay 95% of that salary then no thanks.
    Go Gators!

  6. #5
    Member schroomytunes's Avatar
    Join Date
    Sep 2002
    Location
    wilmington n.c.
    Posts
    957

    Re: Should the Reds go Moose hunting?

    I think some good targets/goals this offseason should be:

    1)Find a taker for Freel: we have 2 guys in Hopper and Keppenger that get better production so this makes Freel expendible.

    2)Acquire a guy like Carlos Silva to be the #3 guy in the rotation.

    3)Go hard after Francisco Cordero to be the closer, if unable to land him than shore up the back of the pen with a guy like Troy Percival, yeah he's old but if used right would make a hell of a set-up guy!

    4)Look at a 5th starter/Long relief guy that can spot start on occasion but realizes his role as the long relief guy, a Shawn Chacon type.

    just ideas thoughts?

  7. #6
    One and a half men Patrick Bateman's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2003
    Location
    Calgary, AB
    Posts
    5,874

    Re: Should the Reds go Moose hunting?

    Silva is hardly better than what we have, plus he will cost in the 7-8M range in free agency. Chacon can be replaced by a Ramirez type with ease. Those 2 are just a waste of valuable payroll room.

  8. #7
    Lark11 11BarryLarkin11's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jun 2005
    Location
    Earth
    Posts
    244

    Re: Should the Reds go Moose hunting?

    Quote Originally Posted by Austin Kearns View Post
    Silva is hardly better than what we have, plus he will cost in the 7-8M range in free agency. Chacon can be replaced by a Ramirez type with ease. Those 2 are just a waste of valuable payroll room.
    I agree.

    Carlos Silva is Bobby Livingston in a pitcher friendly park and in front of a much better defense.

    As for Shawn Chacon, I just don't think he's a very good pitcher.

    Given the escalating salaries in MLB, it is becoming more important than ever to get the most bang for your buck. If you aren't getting production that is significantly better than replacement level, then it's not worth handing out huge multiyear contracts.

    As for Mussina, I think he's a solid option at ~$7M and you might be able to get the Yankees to pick up more of his contract. I'm a bit surprised everyone is so quick to dismiss him, but maybe they are seeing something that I'm not. He's having an off year, but he was very strong in 2006.

    In 2006, he posted an ERA of 3.51, a 1.11 WHIP, a 1.6 BB/9, and a 7.8 K/9.

    Given his hamstring problems and his poor hit luck, it's possible that he could bounce back strong in the NL Central.

    Maybe we'd need to get the Yankees to pickup up more of the salary to offset some of the risk, but I think he could be an interesting option. Personally, I'd have much more faith in Moose than Belisle in 2008.
    Last edited by 11BarryLarkin11; 08-31-2007 at 02:10 AM.

  9. #8
    Member penantboundreds's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2002
    Posts
    861

    Re: Should the Reds go Moose hunting?

    no
    For Love of the Game

    "If you aren't first; you're last"

  10. #9
    Member Jpup's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2004
    Location
    Southern KY
    Posts
    6,967

    Re: Should the Reds go Moose hunting?

    of course it would be a good idea, but the Yankees will never do it and I'm not sure he would clear waivers.
    "My mission is to be the ray of hope, the guy who stands out there on that beautiful field and owns up to his mistakes and lets people know it's never completely hopeless, no matter how bad it seems at the time. I have a platform and a message, and now I go to bed at night, sober and happy, praying I can be a good messenger." -Josh Hamilton

  11. #10
    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2006
    Posts
    14,762

    Re: Should the Reds go Moose hunting?

    I'd happily dump Stanton For Mussina. I don't see it ever happening from the Yankees perspective.

    I wouldn't mind the Reds going after Mussina but unless the Yankees would take a PTBNL, I doubt that the Reds have anyone who'd clear waivers that would make their 25 Man Roster.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

    Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS

  12. #11
    I hate the Cubs LoganBuck's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2003
    Posts
    6,144

    Re: Should the Reds go Moose hunting?

    mth123, don't you think that the Yankees would like to add Mike Stanton's "veteran presence"?
    The Sox traded Bullfrog the only player they've got for Shottenhoffen. Four-eyes Shottenhoffen a utility infielder. They've got a whole team of utility infielders.

  13. #12
    Redsmetz redsmetz's Avatar
    Join Date
    Feb 2006
    Location
    Winton Place
    Posts
    11,160

    Re: Should the Reds go Moose hunting?

    Heck, I thought this thread was a call to bring Bob Moose out of retirement - that would be some serious "vet-love" - he'll be 60 in October!



    On a more serious note, if the Yankees ate a significant amount of Mussina's contract, I might be interested. I'd need our obligation to be less than $5 Million.

  14. #13
    Member cumberlandreds's Avatar
    Join Date
    May 2003
    Location
    Sterling VA
    Posts
    9,200

    Re: Should the Reds go Moose hunting?

    Quote Originally Posted by redsmetz View Post
    Heck, I thought this thread was a call to bring Bob Moose out of retirement - that would be some serious "vet-love" - he'll be 60 in October!



    On a more serious note, if the Yankees ate a significant amount of Mussina's contract, I might be interested. I'd need our obligation to be less than $5 Million.
    It would be miraculous to bring Moose back too. He's been dead for a long time. I think he died in a car crash in the 70's.
    Reds Fan Since 1971

  15. #14
    Redsmetz redsmetz's Avatar
    Join Date
    Feb 2006
    Location
    Winton Place
    Posts
    11,160

    Re: Should the Reds go Moose hunting?

    Quote Originally Posted by cumberlandreds View Post
    It would be miraculous to bring Moose back too. He's been dead for a long time. I think he died in a car crash in the 70's.
    Yikes! I'd forgotten that and now my small joke borders on tasteless. But then again, if we could do it, it could cap off a miracle finish.

    I looked it up, he died on his 29th birthday - very sad.

  16. #15
    Rally Onion! Chip R's Avatar
    Join Date
    May 2000
    Location
    Cincinnati, OH
    Posts
    34,377

    Re: Should the Reds go Moose hunting?

    Quote Originally Posted by cumberlandreds View Post
    It would be miraculous to bring Moose back too. He's been dead for a long time. I think he died in a car crash in the 70's.

    Well, cross him off then.
    The Rally Onion wants 150 fans before Opening Day.

    http://www.facebook.com/pages/Rally-...24872650873160


Turn Off Ads?

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •  

Board Moderators may, at their discretion and judgment, delete and/or edit any messages that violate any of the following guidelines: 1. Explicit references to alleged illegal or unlawful acts. 2. Graphic sexual descriptions. 3. Racial or ethnic slurs. 4. Use of edgy language (including masked profanity). 5. Direct personal attacks, flames, fights, trolling, baiting, name-calling, general nuisance, excessive player criticism or anything along those lines. 6. Posting spam. 7. Each person may have only one user account. It is fine to be critical here - that's what this board is for. But let's not beat a subject or a player to death, please.

Thank you, and most importantly, enjoy yourselves!


RedsZone.com is a privately owned website and is not affiliated with the Cincinnati Reds or Major League Baseball


Contact us: Boss | GIK | BCubb2003 | dabvu2498 | Gallen5862 | LexRedsFan | Plus Plus | RedlegJake | redsfan1995 | The Operator | Tommyjohn25