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Thread: The Anomoly that is the 2007 Diamondbacks

  1. #1
    Porkchop Sandwiches DoogMinAmo's Avatar
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    The Anomoly that is the 2007 Diamondbacks

    RS: 570
    RA: 607

    Pythag: 64-71
    Actual: 75-60

    To go from a 7 game under projected record to a 15 game over record, has any team played that far over its pythag heads in recent history?

    (FYI, they just recently have lost 3 of 4, so the preojection had an even larger disparity 4 days ago.)
    "I'm a Cucumber, I'm a cucumber. I'm a cucumber, I'm a cucumber. I'm a cucumber, I'm a cucumber. Please don't send me to the pickle farm, bum." - Brak

    Record In Games Attended, 2007: 2-1 (1-0 GAB, 1-1 Jake)

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    High five! nate's Avatar
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    Re: The Anomoly that is the 2007 Diamondbacks

    Yeah, I noticed that the other day when they were playing 13 games over their Pythag.

    I wonder which teams have gotten away with that kind of performance and won the division?
    "Bring on Rod Stupid!"

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    Danger is my business! oneupper's Avatar
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    Re: The Anomoly that is the 2007 Diamondbacks

    I think the Twins were World Champions with a negative run differential. Probably read it here or something.
    "A person is smart. People are dumb, panicky, dangerous animals and you know it."

    http://dalmady.blogspot.com

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    Churlish Johnny Footstool's Avatar
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    Re: The Anomoly that is the 2007 Diamondbacks

    Quote Originally Posted by oneupper View Post
    I think the Twins were World Champions with a negative run differential. Probably read it here or something.
    Yep. 1987 Twins: Scored 786 runs, Allowed 806 runs. Pythagorean W-L: 79-83
    "I prefer books and movies where the conflict isn't of the extreme cannibal apocalypse variety I guess." Redsfaithful

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    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: The Anomoly that is the 2007 Diamondbacks

    For what it's worth, one of the analysis sites did a write-up on this a week or two ago. The basic premise was that the D'Backs can sustain their winning % above their pythag b/c of the way their bullpen talent is distributed and used.

    Basically, they're very good in close games because of the great players they use in those situations and they're very bad in games that get away from them because of the crappy players they use in those situations. They don't have many mediocre pitchers, just good and bad ones.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

  7. #6
    Box of Frogs edabbs44's Avatar
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    Re: The Anomoly that is the 2007 Diamondbacks

    Just shows that the theory has its flaws, just like any other.

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    Churlish Johnny Footstool's Avatar
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    Re: The Anomoly that is the 2007 Diamondbacks

    During Brandon Webb's astonishing streak of scoreless innings, the D-Backs outscored their opponents 19-0. So there's one contribution to the Pythag discrepancy.
    "I prefer books and movies where the conflict isn't of the extreme cannibal apocalypse variety I guess." Redsfaithful

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    Member SteelSD's Avatar
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    Re: The Anomoly that is the 2007 Diamondbacks

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    For what it's worth, one of the analysis sites did a write-up on this a week or two ago. The basic premise was that the D'Backs can sustain their winning % above their pythag b/c of the way their bullpen talent is distributed and used.

    Basically, they're very good in close games because of the great players they use in those situations and they're very bad in games that get away from them because of the crappy players they use in those situations. They don't have many mediocre pitchers, just good and bad ones.
    http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/ar...ge-in-arizona/

    I think that's the article you note. Could Arizona's over-performance this season be due to a combination of an inordinate amount of one-Run victories and being on the wrong end of too many blowouts? Sure. Could be.

    So let's take a look at some other pythag overages...

    1969 NYM: +8 Wins

    Run Diff: +91
    1-Run: 41-23
    Blowout: 21-12

    1987 MIN: +6 Wins

    Run Diff: -20
    1-Run: 24-22
    Blowout: 22-31

    1997 SFG: +10 Wins

    Run Diff: -9
    1-Run: 23-17
    Blowout: 18-23

    2001 SEA: +7 Wins

    Run Diff: +300
    1-Run: 26-12
    Blowout: 34-10

    2004 NYY: +12 Wins

    Run Diff: +89
    1-Run: 24-16
    Blowout: 27-28

    2004 CIN: +9 Wins

    Run Diff: -157
    1-Run: 25-20
    Blowout: 11-35

    2005 SDP: +5 Wins

    Run Diff: -42
    1-Run: 29-20
    Blowout: 21-23

    2007 ARZ: +11 Wins

    Run Diff: -37
    1-Run: 30-16
    Blowout: 13-23

    Wish I had time to follow through with an analysis here, but work calls. Anyone else, feel free.
    "The problem with strikeouts isn't that they hurt your team, it's that they hurt your feelings..." --Rob Neyer

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    Member cincrazy's Avatar
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    Re: The Anomoly that is the 2007 Diamondbacks

    I think I read somewhere that the D-backs had lost three games by a 30-0 score, or something of that sort. It's been a really strange baseball season as far as statistics are concerned, and I love it!

  11. #10
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: The Anomoly that is the 2007 Diamondbacks

    One important thing with Pythag is that it has a standard deviation of something like 4 games. We would pretty much expect at least 1 team a year to be two standard deviations or more off their pythag. So, while it's unlikely for any particular team to be so far off, it's quite likely that there will be teams who vary significantly.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

  12. #11
    post hype sleeper cincinnati chili's Avatar
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    Re: The Anomoly that is the 2007 Diamondbacks

    It's a good theory, as Rick suggests. There are always outliers in good theories.

    Last year's Cleveland Indians - 78-84, Scored 870 runs, Allowed 782 runs (Pythagorean W-L: 89-73).

    They were a good bet to improve their record this year.
    How, then, are those people of the future—who are taking steroids every day—going to look back on baseball players who used steroids? They're going to look back on them as pioneers. They're going to look back at it and say "So what?" - Bill James, Cooperstown and the 'Roids

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    Will post for food BuckeyeRedleg's Avatar
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    Re: The Anomoly that is the 2007 Diamondbacks

    Quote Originally Posted by cincinnati chili View Post
    It's a good theory, as Rick suggests. There are always outliers in good theories.

    Last year's Cleveland Indians - 78-84, Scored 870 runs, Allowed 782 runs (Pythagorean W-L: 89-73).

    They were a good bet to improve their record this year.
    This was the reason I laid down $20 last offseason in Vegas for the Indians to win this year's World Series.

    I got the Indians at 40-1 odds and the Brewers for 75-1 odds. I was counting on a healthy Sheets when I gambled on the Brewers. I guess they still have a shot.

  14. #13
    Member Cedric's Avatar
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    Re: The Anomoly that is the 2007 Diamondbacks

    I think either a dominant bullpen or a bad bullpen sways a Pythagorean. The Indians of last year fit that.
    This is the time. The real Reds organization is back.


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