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Thread: Thoughts on tonight's game

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    Thoughts on tonight's game

    We cannot win with our current starting rotation unless we score 10 runs a game. We currently have multiple starting pitchers on the roster and in AAA who can not pitch quality starts on a regular basis. I like Maloney, but I am starting to miss Kyle Lohse. He would not always give you a quality start, but he would always give you 6 innings. The current 3rd to 5th starters can't do that. We have several good pitchers in the bullpen in Bray, Burton, and Weathers; and a lot of questions after that. Either Edwin or Gonzalez will be traded in the off-season to make room for Keppinger. Keppinger has been given every opportunity to show he is a fluke, and he has done well. It is time to start Votto at first base starting in September, and see if he can hit MLB pitching; Votto has nothing to prove at AAA. It might be a possibility to trade Votto if Cantu can show he is the player was in 2005. Unless the Reds are going to start Jay Bruce in left field next year, they need to pick up Dunn's option. I expect Bruce will take over for Griffey in 2009, however. Bray or Burton are capable of closing games, and we will not need a FA closer in the future. It would be best if the Reds could pick up 2 quality SP free agents to fill the void between now and whenever Bailey and Cueto are ready. I like Wayne, but he needs to learn that you do not give multiple year contracts to 30+ plus veterans if you can help it. It is much better to invest in near MLB level rookies who can help you for a long time. My game thoughts have gone longer than I planned, but feel free to add your own or make legitimate points to show where I am wrong

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    Member SMcGavin's Avatar
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    Re: Thoughts on tonight's game

    A couple of thoughts to add:

    I'm glad you miss Lohse, I think he got a lot more crap around here than he deserved. He wasn't good but he was roughly league average, and league average starters don't grow on trees. That being said the Maloney trade was a good one - we are going nowhere this season and Lohse would not have been a good target for a multi-year deal.

    If there is one guy I look to move for pitching it's probably Votto. Not that I don't like the guy, but 1B seems like an easier position to fill and if we are gonna get a decent SP back, you have to give up something of value. Right now it's Harang, Arroyo, ???, ???, and Belisle. Maybe Bailey fills one of the openings next spring, maybe not. Either way it would be best to add a SP of moderate talent and I think Votto could bring that back. I think if you are the Reds you have to look at dealing Votto or EE for a starter, and I'd prefer it be Votto. I would not go to the free agent SP pool because you are not going to get any kind of reasonable deals there.

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    Re: Thoughts on tonight's game

    Lohse was too inconsistent. What good is a pitcher that is just as likely to go 9 ip 1 er 3 hits one start and then follow it up with 3.2ip 4 hits 4bb and 6 runs.

    I would be much happier with running a guy that gives up 5 or 6 ip of 5 earned every 5 than have to deal with Jekyll and Hyde Lohse giving us unpredictably.

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    Re: Thoughts on tonight's game

    We got exactly what we deserved trotting out two stiffs like Tom Shearn and Phil Dumatrait.

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    Re: Thoughts on tonight's game

    Quote Originally Posted by Muggerd View Post
    Lohse was too inconsistent. What good is a pitcher that is just as likely to go 9 ip 1 er 3 hits one start and then follow it up with 3.2ip 4 hits 4bb and 6 runs.

    I would be much happier with running a guy that gives up 5 or 6 ip of 5 earned every 5 than have to deal with Jekyll and Hyde Lohse giving us unpredictably.
    Exactly.

    With Lohse, you're guaranteed to win 1 out of 3 games, guaranteed to lose one of 3 games, with a high probability to lose the third out of every 3 games. He just couldn't keep the Reds in the game in a lot of his starts.

    I thought the trade was for Maloney was great. Lohse wouldn't have been here next year anyway, and the Reds picked up a decent arm.

    Now, would I rather have Lohse than some of the current arms the Reds are throwing out on the mound right now? Yes. But, do I think it would've made a big difference in the standings this year? No.
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    Re: Thoughts on tonight's game

    Quote Originally Posted by SMcGavin View Post
    A couple of thoughts to add:

    I'm glad you miss Lohse, I think he got a lot more crap around here than he deserved. He wasn't good but he was roughly league average, and league average starters don't grow on trees. That being said the Maloney trade was a good one - we are going nowhere this season and Lohse would not have been a good target for a multi-year deal.

    If there is one guy I look to move for pitching it's probably Votto. Not that I don't like the guy, but 1B seems like an easier position to fill and if we are gonna get a decent SP back, you have to give up something of value. Right now it's Harang, Arroyo, ???, ???, and Belisle. Maybe Bailey fills one of the openings next spring, maybe not. Either way it would be best to add a SP of moderate talent and I think Votto could bring that back. I think if you are the Reds you have to look at dealing Votto or EE for a starter, and I'd prefer it be Votto. I would not go to the free agent SP pool because you are not going to get any kind of reasonable deals there.
    I think it's that point that may make it tough to get a good starting pitcher back in return. We might be able to get a decent but overpriced pitcher for votto if we take on some cash. But I like you're idea and if we could trade votto and get a good starting pitcher I'm definitly on board. But we all know that as soon as we trade Votto he'll turn out to be a stud because we are Reds fans and that always happens.
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    Member SMcGavin's Avatar
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    Re: Thoughts on tonight's game

    Quote Originally Posted by Muggerd View Post
    Lohse was too inconsistent. What good is a pitcher that is just as likely to go 9 ip 1 er 3 hits one start and then follow it up with 3.2ip 4 hits 4bb and 6 runs.

    I would be much happier with running a guy that gives up 5 or 6 ip of 5 earned every 5 than have to deal with Jekyll and Hyde Lohse giving us unpredictably.
    You would be much happier with a pitcher with a ERA in the 7.50-9.00 range than Lohse?

    Lohse was good sometimes and bad sometimes, it's better than guys who are pretty much always bad. Like half of the Reds current rotation. There are not enough good pitchers to go around MLB, just wait til Lohse gets a ridiculous free agent contract to hammer home that point. I don't want us going out to re-sign him to a longterm contract but Lohse this season for $4M was a good deal.

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    Re: Thoughts on tonight's game

    Quote Originally Posted by mound_patrol View Post
    I think it's that point that may make it tough to get a good starting pitcher back in return. We might be able to get a decent but overpriced pitcher for votto if we take on some cash. But I like you're idea and if we could trade votto and get a good starting pitcher I'm definitly on board. But we all know that as soon as we trade Votto he'll turn out to be a stud because we are Reds fans and that always happens.
    Well you might be right. But if I'm WK I at least shop him around and see what's there. Votto was pretty highly touted around baseball before this season and he had a very good year at AAA. I don't necessarily think we will be getting a guy with top of the rotation potential, I'm looking for a an Arroyo type (throws a good amount of innings at a mid-4 ERA level). The Livingston injury was a big loss, our rotation is really counting on Bailey to be good next year and that is a scary proposition.

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    Re: Thoughts on tonight's game

    Quote Originally Posted by SMcGavin View Post
    You would be much happier with a pitcher with a ERA in the 7.50-9.00 range than Lohse?

    Lohse was good sometimes and bad sometimes, it's better than guys who are pretty much always bad. Like half of the Reds current rotation. There are not enough good pitchers to go around MLB, just wait til Lohse gets a ridiculous free agent contract to hammer home that point. I don't want us going out to re-sign him to a longterm contract but Lohse this season for $4M was a good deal.
    its easier to play the game and tweak things when you know what you are getting is my point.

    Lohse is the equivalent of a batter that hits 40 homers in a month, goes 0-everything the next month. Over the course of the season the numbers look good but did it help you that much?

    of course i exaggerated a little

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    Re: Thoughts on tonight's game

    Quote Originally Posted by SMcGavin View Post
    You would be much happier with a pitcher with a ERA in the 7.50-9.00 range than Lohse?

    Lohse was good sometimes and bad sometimes, it's better than guys who are pretty much always bad. Like half of the Reds current rotation. There are not enough good pitchers to go around MLB, just wait til Lohse gets a ridiculous free agent contract to hammer home that point. I don't want us going out to re-sign him to a longterm contract but Lohse this season for $4M was a good deal.
    I couldn't agree more. Lohse now has a 4.54 ERA this year, with peripherals that say he should be pitching at that level. All pitchers are going to have bad games, and inconsistent stretches. This year, Lohse has been a league average starter, and therefore, a bargain at 4.2 million. Next year, he won't be such a bargain, when he gets one of the most valuable free agent contracts handed out this winter, but he will still be a league average starter that gives you a chance to win fairly often.

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    Re: Thoughts on tonight's game

    lohse was to up and down. Yes when he was very good he was very good. but you never knew when that would be and how much it would show up in a 162 game season. We need consistency.

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    Re: Thoughts on tonight's game

    Quote Originally Posted by captainmorgan07 View Post
    lohse was to up and down. Yes when he was very good he was very good. but you never knew when that would be and how much it would show up in a 162 game season. We need consistency.
    Of course we do, if we could get 5 Aaron Harangs we would do it. But we live in the real world for a small market team and that's not happening. So the Kyle Lohses of the world are actually very valuable.

    Lohse 2007 with Reds (21 starts): 102 ERA+
    2007 with Phils (6 starts):104 ERA+
    2006 with Reds (11 starts): 105 ERA+
    2005 with Twins (30 starts): 105 ERA+

    He's basically the definition of a league average starter. Give me three Kyle Lohses to stick behind Harang and Arroyo and this team may be winning the division. Now I don't want him at the crazy price he'll get in free agency, but I think WK's trade for Lohse when he only cost $4M was a win for the Reds.

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    Re: Thoughts on tonight's game

    It seems my point about Lohse struck a nerve. He will give you a lot of innings, but he will be inconsistant about it. He might give up 1 earned run 1 start, and 6 in 6 innings another. He was open to a contract extension with the Reds, but I guess they thought he was going to be too expensive to re-sign We traded Lohse for the best return we could get, and I hope Maloney is a quality starter in the future.. As for Votto, we really have no other first base prospects except for Cantu. Cantu would need to show he was the hitter he was in 2005 before I would think a trade for pitching would be advantageous.

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    Re: Thoughts on tonight's game

    Quote Originally Posted by SMcGavin View Post
    Well you might be right. But if I'm WK I at least shop him around and see what's there. Votto was pretty highly touted around baseball before this season and he had a very good year at AAA. I don't necessarily think we will be getting a guy with top of the rotation potential, I'm looking for a an Arroyo type (throws a good amount of innings at a mid-4 ERA level). The Livingston injury was a big loss, our rotation is really counting on Bailey to be good next year and that is a scary proposition.
    I think the best option for trading Votto would be to package him with Edwin if the organization feels keppinger can play third all year. I think that could bring us a quality pitcher. I really like both of these young guys but we really need pitching so i'd be willing to trade those two for the right deal.
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    Re: Thoughts on tonight's game

    Then we could play Griffey at first, and have Bruce be a starting outfielder.
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