Where does the Reds farm system rank?

[D-Man]

Where the Reds system ranks isn't really worth debating.

I would say that the topic is worth debating because the top farm systems, almost universally, turn their big league clubs into championship contenders. And frequently, the best farm systems form the foundation of championship teams within three to four years, like the 1985-88 Reds farm did, or the 1992-96 Yankeees farm did, or the 2000-2002 White Sox farm did. So it is certainly a topic worthy of debate.

Regarding the state of the Reds, I would say that the farm system is in better overall shape than it was last year, although I agree that it is a pretty significant dropoff after the top four.

Thanks to good health (generally speaking), the pitching depth is nice, particularly in upper-level relievers. The Reds need to sort through the keepers and the chaff in short order because the major league club can't carry fifteen relievers. I hope to see several of these guys shipped out for major league players because their value will likely diminish in the next year or so.

I don't see any Jay Bruce-like breakout candidates on the horizon on the offensive side of the ledger, although there are several intriguing candidates in the low minors. Offensive player depth is generally scarce. On the other hand, BP's Kevin Goldstein thought the first-half Dayton club was loaded with talent, and I generally agree with him.

Regarding Dorn: his .815 OPS in Sarasota didn't match Bruce's or Rosales' performance. However, it was actually quite good when adjusted for the league. His OPS was 10th best in the circuit, which is what you would hope to see.

http://www.minorleaguebaseball.com/e...l_bat&sid=milb

What the club is missing are prospects that can both hit and defend. I think Frazier and/or Stubbs could provide that mix, but we'll have to see about Frazier's glove and Stubbs' bat.

I liked the 2007 draft for its value approach (Frazier and Cozart were both likely first rounders coming into the year). I'm not anticipating that Mesoraco is on the fast track, however.

The system is definitely short on "sure thing" prospects (or even near-sure thing ones), but I like that it has a fairly wide collection of interesting talent. That is more than we could have said for most of the the 2000s.

[dougdirt]

dougdirt at redreporter.com, March 29th 2007:

Now as for the rest of the Farm system he <Dan O'Brien> brought in Travis Wood, Sam Lecure, Johnny Cueto, Paul Janish, Milton Loo and Cody Strait who are all within the Reds top 11 prospects.

Baseball America ranked Cody Strait at #11. I ranked him at #23. They liked him quite a bit more than I did.

As for Janish, we will have to agree to disagree on that one. He will be a starter someday and an above average one.

My apologies for incorrectly positioning your opinion of Strait. You haven't stated he was a sure starter- just one of the Reds' top 11 prospects coming into the season. However, you were pretty clear on Janish.

But if that list of players comprised the bulk of the Reds' top 11 prospects in March, 2007 then maybe you can begin to understand why I'm not entirely fired up about the overall quality of the Reds' system? Just maybe?

So I was wrong about Janish. So were a lot of people, including baseball america and baseball prospectus. I still don't know what that has anything to do with the current system, 9 months after we all came out with those lists where an entire season has been played in between there Steel.

And yeah, we must have a real differing opinion of what a strong system is. You want a strong system to be a top 3 system in baseball or its not strong.

[dougdirt]

The system is definitely short on "sure thing" prospects (or even near-sure thing ones), but I like that it has a fairly wide collection of interesting talent. That is more than we could have said for most of the the 2000s.

4 Top 40 prospects in all of baseball all in AA or AAA is being short on 'sure or close to sure thing' prospects?

I mean really, only the Yankees can match that, and only the Red Sox have that many guys in the top 75.

[lollipopcurve]

I think M2's take is pretty fair. A few responses below...

In general, and I've been following the Reds' minor leagues closely for about 25 years, I think the system is probably the strongest it's been since the Davis-Daniels-O"Neill-Jones days.

From M2:

Bruce is an enfant terrible and Frazier can flat out hit (I'm thinking he could have a Youkilisian future)

When you've got perhaps the best hitter in the minors, your system isn't weak -- just to dispense with that little bit of semantical nonsense.
As for Frazier, the comp to Youkilis is interesting, but I do think it should be noted that Frazier is quite a bit more athletic. He offers a lot of positional flexibility, and I do think his power potential eclipses Youk's pretty significantly. Needless to say, if he ends up as productive a player as Youk that'll be a good thing. I tend to wait on BA's league prospect lists before going all-in on a prospect, but if Frazier tops the Pioneer League I'll join the lovefest. For now, I say he's a nice grab in the supplemental first round.

Homer Bailey seemed like a sure thing and now he's going haywire for reasons that have not been made apparent (though I tend to think it's because he's 21 and not ready to compete at the levels into which the organization pushed him, now he doesn't trust his stuff).

While I've been far more optimistic about Homer than most, I am concerned after watching him pitch this year and I lack confidence in the Reds' developmental track record with starters, obviously. So, who is this Tom Brown guy they've got working with him? Important for the organization to note that Clay Buchholz threw his no-hitter shortly after turning 23. I think it may not realistic to hope for anything real good out of Homer until 09, when he turns 23. There's just too much work to be done on the secondary stuff. I have no idea why he was called up -- I suspect ownership was involved to an extent -- but it was clearly a mistake. Along with the injury to Wood, I think you have to say that the hope for getting rotation help from the minors has dimmed a little in 07.

Johhny Cueto may be a better prospect or maybe he's just the flavor of the day and his 2008 will mirror Bailey's 2007.

I am confident that Cueto will offer the team something useful, whether it's as a starter or reliever. His minor league performance has not shown the every-now-and-then blow-ups Bailey's did. He's been consistently strong, which bodes well. The issue with Cueto may be that he's a short, flyball pitcher. Damn those fences at GAB....

Roenicke and Viola may be the best actual pitching prospects in the pipeline. Asadoorian didn't really distinguish himself this year. I would put him decidedly behind Roenicke, Viola, Salmon, McBeth and Guevara at the moment. I'd probably take Dushan Ruzic over Asadoorian.

Don't forget Pelland. He's looking good out of the pen at AAA. Hard-throwing lefty, young for level, performing well = nice to have in system.

After them in the high minors you've got a lot of filler - Dickerson, Rosales, Dorn, Castro and Henry are the best of the lot.

Filler matters. You can fashion cheap, useful platoons and bench help out of these guys. I think Michael Griffin may end up a 24th/25th guy, as may Buck Coats, Tatum and Perez still have time to establish themselves as back-up types, and Cumberland has upside. Dorn is intriguing to me at the moment -- he's done well at AA in just his first full season. In my view, the high minors have been transformed from a repository of veteran mercenaries to a scrum of hungry young-enough players. In other words, it's healthy.

Valaika, Heisey and Francisco have all got OB issues. Francisco doesn't have OB issues so much as a lack of ability. He seems to be cut from the Tony "Gormingo" Blanco mold. Heading into today Stubbs had a .775 OPS. That's not pretty. Cozart's struggled mightily. Justin Turner might just be the best of the option outside of Frazier.

Have always liked Turner. He'll be a Red, in some capacity, if he stays healthy. I'm going to disagree with the assessment of Francisco. Best power-hitting prospect in the Midwest League -- a tough hitters league -- according to BA. To me, that counts for something, though certainly not a guarantee. Give this kid time, he's real young, and 25 taters in that league is a big number. Plate discipline can be learned, if not mastered.

I've said many times I'd give Stubbs' bat 2-3 years. He's been in pro ball a year and a half. I know there aren't a lot of comps for him that forecast success, but I do think there are always new players under the sun. He's a big-time tools guy with good plate discipline. I'm still pretty optimistic about him, given that he rebounded well from a bad first half. I'm guessing a lot of teams would take him as their 5th-8th best prospect.

We'll see about the guys in the rookie leagues when they get to full season ball. Waring had a huge season in Billings, but we'll see how sea level treats him. Soto's interesting, but he hasn't done anything Willy Jo Ronda didn't in the GCL.

I'm not wild about Waring, as some are, but I certainly consider him interesting. Don't agree with the Soto-Ronda comp at all -- Soto's got a lot of EBH power in that RH bat. I'm very curious to know why he stopped playing the last few weeks -- I think he's got a chance to be a better hitter than both Frazier and Waring, health permitting. Also, I think Mesoraco's presence desrves mention. A high-ceiling catcher is something the organization hasn't had forever. A long way for this kid to go, but he does offer what most would call "depth" at perhaps the thinnest postion in pro ball.

[SteelSD]

Baseball America ranked Cody Strait at #11. I ranked him at #23. They liked him quite a bit more than I did.

Then why did you position Strait as being among the top 11 prospects in March when you apparently didn't think much of him?

So I was wrong about Janish. So were a lot of people, including baseball america and baseball prospectus. I still don't know what that has anything to do with the current system, 9 months after we all came out with those lists where an entire season has been played in between there Steel.

Did you ever wonder why BA and BP may have missed on Janish? Have you considered that having so many ranked players who project to drop off a "top 10" (or "top 11") list in such a short time might be indicative of overall organizational weakness rather than the "strength" of players who are swapping slots with them on someone's ranking board?

And yeah, we must have a real differing opinion of what a strong system is. You want a strong system to be a top 3 system in baseball or its not strong.

I want a system that's consistently drafting and feeding the parent club actualized talent. Such a system may, at any point in time, appear to be a "weak" system due to that kind of talent chun. I couldn't care less about "strong" and "weak" as comparative terms. Unfortunately, the Reds aren't churning anywhere but in the mid to bottom ranges of their own prospect "lists".

[Falls City Beer]

Overall starting pitching depth and quality is non-existent.

This really is the tale of the tape. Until this improves, there's really not much to talk about.

If the Reds want to see contention in the next several years, they're going to have to take an alternate route from the one they're currently on: wait on the youngsters. Outside of Bruce, maybe Votto (though I'm not sure he'll ever be able to take a spot on the defensive side of things), and Cueto in relief, the cavalry's not there.

[dougdirt]

Then why did you position Strait as being among the top 11 prospects in March when you apparently didn't think much of him?

I was saying thats where BA ranked him at. I just mistakenly left out that BA ranked him there.

Did you ever wonder why BA and BP may have missed on Janish? Have you considered that having so many ranked players who project to drop off a "top 10" (or "top 11") list in such a short time might be indicative of overall organizational weakness rather than the "strength" of players who are swapping slots with them on someone's ranking board?

Becuase they, like me, expected him to continue to hit in the .260-.270 range and not drop off the face of the Earth offensively this year. It isn't like he performed well and fell because others took his place, he fell off because his OPS dropped nearly 200 points.

I want a system that's consistently drafting and feeding the parent club actualized talent. Such a system may, at any point in time, appear to be a "weak" system due to that kind of talent chun. I couldn't care less about "strong" and "weak" as comparative terms. Unfortunately, the Reds aren't churning anywhere but in the mid to bottom ranges of their own prospect "lists".

So you don't think the Reds can reach down next year and pull out talent next season? Or the next season?

[dougdirt]

This really is the tale of the tape. Until this improves, there's really not much to talk about.

If the Reds want to see contention in the next several years, they're going to have to take an alternate route from the one they're currently on: wait on the youngsters. Outside of Bruce, maybe Votto (though I'm not sure he'll ever be able to take a spot on the defensive side of things), and Cueto in relief, the cavalry's not there.

You see Cueto as a reliever? Based on what?

[flyer85]

I would say that the topic is worth debating because the top farm systems, almost universally, turn their big league clubs into championship contenders.

... it isn't where they rank that determines that, it is the ability to produce players that impact the major league team that will determine that. Rankings will always fluctuate as impact players graduate to the majors.

And the Reds haven't been graduating impact players for quite a long time. Of the 25 man roster, only Dunn is a true Red product. That is amazing when you consider it.

[IslandRed]

Rankings will always fluctuate as impact players graduate to the majors.

Yep. That's why I really like the approach Goldstein takes to his organizational Top 10s on BP -- he goes over the prospects and then meshes them with the under-25 players that have already reached the show, giving a more complete picture of the team's young talent base.

[dougdirt]

... it isn't where they rank that determines that, it is the ability to produce players that impact the major league team that will determine that. Rankings will always fluctuate as impact players graduate to the majors.

And the Reds haven't been graduating impact players for quite a long time. Of the 25 man roster, only Dunn is a true Red product. That is amazing when you consider it.

Edwin was in the Reds system at age 18. He is also a true Reds product. We may not have signed him at 17, but we developed him.

[flyer85]

Edwin was in the Reds system at age 18. He is also a true Reds product. We may not have signed him at 17, but we developed him.

EE was acquired from the Rangers after a very promising first year with them, which does not make him a true Red product in my book.

[lollipopcurve]

EE was acquired from the Rangers after a very promising first year with them, which does not make him a true Red product in my book.

Disagree -- when you bring a player from rookie ball (Billings) all the way through your system with stops at every level, you've developed that player.

[dfs]

Like Betterread, I have nothing to actually contribute to the discussion, but I would like to thank y'all for sharing your thoughts. That's all the voices contributing. It's an interesting thread. Wish the big club was doing enough to stimulate discussion that we weren't talking about prospects in September, but I suspect I'm not alone in that.

[flyer85]

Disagree -- when you bring a player from rookie ball (Billings) all the way through your system with stops at every level, you've developed that player.

He was a 9th round pick of the Rangers and spent a decent chunk of 2001 in the Sally League(where he played well as an 18 year old). The Rangers saw enough to make him a 9th round pick and he showed very well in 2 months in the Sally League. The Reds could have selected him in 2000 if they thought he was all that.