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Thread: Where does the Reds farm system rank?

  1. #16
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    Re: Where does the Reds farm system rank?

    Bailey, Cueto, Votto, Bruce, Maloney, Dorn, Rosales, Roenicke.

    Incredibly thin at the upper levels. Totally agree.
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  3. #17
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    Re: Where does the Reds farm system rank?

    Quote Originally Posted by SteelSD View Post
    Rick Asadoorian at age 27 in AA has a "legit shot" at producing in the Show soon? Juan Francisco and his .297 OBP/.751 OPS at Dayton has "an argument" for the top 10? If Francisco carries that kind of clout, then the Reds farm system is even worse than I think it is. Guys like that are "C-level" or worse prospects. Ditto Stubbs and a bunch of what would make up a Reds top 10 list at this point.
    Steel, you do know that Asadoorian is pitching for the first time in his career and he is having success in AA right? I don't care about his age, he has a mid 90s fastball. Out of the bullpen, thats a real good start. As for Francisco, I said he has an arguement, and he does. Not everything is in the stats Steel, especially when it comes to prospects. A player in his 19/20 season who has 25 home runs has a lot of potential. He is raw right now in certain aspects of his game, but that has nothing to do with his potential. As for Stubbs being a C level prospect, I think you are sadly mistaken in your judgement of Drew Stubbs and how most baseball people view him.... and in the end, that is all that is going to matter with Stubbs. Scouts like him, and for the better part of the year, he has produced while hurt (outside of June, he has 3 out of 4 months with .850 or higher OPS's).
    Right now, the Reds have Bruce, Votto, Bailey (if they haven't destroyed him), Cueto, Waring, Valaika, and Frazier who are potential "A" to "B" prospects. The Reds are incredibly thin at the upper levels and have little in the way of quality depth at any position. Overall starting pitching depth and quality is non-existent. It's nice to see guys like Viola, Roenicke, and Guevara produce in AA, but they're not exactly fast comers at ages 24, 25, and 25 respectively.
    I wouldn't put Waring near the other guys at this point in terms of prospects. Roenicke is in his first full season and is in AA. He was drafted at age 24. Viola is in his first full season in this country, and also at AA. Guevara has no chance, because the Reds see him as a trick pitch kind of guy. Fast comers, slow comers, it doesn't matter as long as you get there and produce. That said, I would say Viola and Roenicke are fast comers considering its their first full seasons and are in AA.
    This is not a strong farm system. Every team has a draft every year and I don't see much of anything of distinction beyond that.
    Steel, I don't know what kind of 'depth' you want to see, but the Reds have some quality depth in their system. Not every team can be full of 22 year old studs, and no one has a system like that. But if you want to give me a system where Danny Dorn and Adam Rosales aren't top 10 prospects but are both in AA at reasonable ages with over .900 OPS's and then tell me that the system doesn't have much depth... well then you are entitled to your opinion, I just think you are flat out wrong.

    For what its worth though, Jim Callis at BA had Francisco as the Reds #6 prospect as recently as last month, and while I disagree with that slightly, I can see the argument being made for it. If he figures out to not swing at everything, the hitting is already there.

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    Re: Where does the Reds farm system rank?

    Quote Originally Posted by Blue View Post
    Bailey, Cueto, Votto, Bruce, Maloney, Dorn, Rosales, Roenicke.

    Incredibly thin at the upper levels. Totally agree.
    You forgot about Michael Griffin, 23 years old, hitting .329/.368/.497 in AA (also hit over .300 in Sarasota in the first half), Pedro Viola, 24 years old, combined 1.42 ERA in 82.1 innings where he has allowed 55 hits and struck out 94, Tyler Pelland, 23 years old, now in AAA with a 3.18 ERA, 1.06 WHIP and 27 strikeouts in 22.2 innings of relief. Of course there is asl older semi prospects with Chris Dickerson and Buck Coats in AAA....

  5. #19
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    Re: Where does the Reds farm system rank?

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    Steel, you do know that Asadoorian is pitching for the first time in his career and he is having success in AA right? I don't care about his age, he has a mid 90s fastball. Out of the bullpen, thats a real good start.
    Yeah, I know and I don't at all care. At this point he's a 27-year old project rather than a prospect.

    As for Francisco, I said he has an arguement, and he does. Not everything is in the stats Steel, especially when it comes to prospects. A player in his 19/20 season who has 25 home runs has a lot of potential. He is raw right now in certain aspects of his game, but that has nothing to do with his potential.
    The guy hasn't performed. Couldn't care less about power potential if he can't do anything else well. And he hasn't.

    As for Stubbs being a C level prospect, I think you are sadly mistaken in your judgement of Drew Stubbs and how most baseball people view him.... and in the end, that is all that is going to matter with Stubbs. Scouts like him, and for the better part of the year, he has produced while hurt (outside of June, he has 3 out of 4 months with .850 or higher OPS's).
    Yeah, his turf toe has allowed him to run "like a gazelle" as you've often noted. Nice to see that you'll remove an entire month of performance in order to position Stubbs as a potential plus offensive player, but that month actually happened. And here we sit with Drew Stubbs at a .783 OPS in low A ball. Wow. That's awesome.

    I wouldn't put Waring near the other guys at this point in terms of prospects.
    I see. You'd consider Juan Francisco as a potential top 10 prospect based on nothing but his power potential but wouldn't consider Waring why? Because Waring is a whole year older than Francisco?

    Roenicke is in his first full season and is in AA. He was drafted at age 24. Viola is in his first full season in this country, and also at AA. Guevara has no chance, because the Reds see him as a trick pitch kind of guy. Fast comers, slow comers, it doesn't matter as long as you get there and produce. That said, I would say Viola and Roenicke are fast comers considering its their first full seasons and are in AA.
    Sure. 24 and 25-year old players are "fast comers" because they're playing against age-equitable competition. Sorry, but no.

    Steel, I don't know what kind of 'depth' you want to see, but the Reds have some quality depth in their system. Not every team can be full of 22 year old studs, and no one has a system like that. But if you want to give me a system where Danny Dorn and Adam Rosales aren't top 10 prospects but are both in AA at reasonable ages with over .900 OPS's and then tell me that the system doesn't have much depth... well then you are entitled to your opinion, I just think you are flat out wrong.
    Danny Dorn is 23 in high A ball. Adam Rosales (who I've always liked) is no longer a middle infielder at age 24. Considering how you've always pimped Jay Bruce because of his age versus his level, I'm a bit flabbergasted by the fact that you haven't considered the age comps on a good majority of Reds' prospects.

    The Reds don't have a lot of high-level depth in the minors. Sorry, but if you were truly keyed into the Reds minor league system you'd realize that.

    For what its worth though, Jim Callis at BA had Francisco as the Reds #6 prospect as recently as last month, and while I disagree with that slightly, I can see the argument being made for it. If he figures out to not swing at everything, the hitting is already there.
    If Jim Callis had Francisco as the Reds' #6 prospect, I'd consider that a complete indictment of the Reds' minor league system.
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  6. #20
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    Re: Where does the Reds farm system rank?

    SD, I respectfully disagree. A bunch.

    Cincinnati has four ROY candidates for 2008. Votto and Bruce have top end talent and should have enough at-bats for the award. Too, both Bailey and Cueto have shown a propensity for missing bats and are arguably the top one-two punch still in the minor leagues, as far as top end pitchers. Both have ace potential and stuff.

    That's four solid A prospects. Last year, no team in all of baseball had four A prospects. None. Nada. Zip.

    (That would be high end talent.)

    Too, other A to B level talent you accidentally omitted or didn't think about include:
    Danny Dorn
    Has hit everywhere he's been and continues to pound the ball in AA. Good eye, good discipline, good pop. In short, everything a top end prospect should have. He's in AA, BTW. And, if Valaika is a B prospect, Dorn certainly is. He's hit better and at a higher level.

    Adam Rosales
    Speaking of AA, Rosales has had a resurgence at the plate after a poor showing last season in High A. His 71 extra base hits promise serious pop and, even if he can't play SS anymore, he's shown a legitimate bat. He, too, is in AA.

    Darryl Thompson
    Don't like hitters? How about young Mr. Thompson? All he's done is skate through two leagues with a combined 14-5 season and a 3.18 ERA. And he's young as well, at 21. Prospect gurus will be all over him. Or at least they should. He's a solid B prospect.

    Matt Maloney
    Speaking of pitching, let's take a look at Maloney. His fastball doesn't pass the look test, but his numbers are incredible. Want K rate? BB:K ratio? He delivers in spades. Maloney destroyed AA and in a short trial run at AAA, he's shown that same K ability. He's a poor man's Kevin Slowey and he's certainly a B prospect. I'd suspect Maloney will be, too.

    That's eight A-B prospects off the top of my head, even without Stubbs, whom I like much more than you. (Very solid season after a horrid month, combined with speed and great D in CF.) Add on top of that the Waring, Valaika, Frazier troika and that's 11 A and B prospects.

    That's a bunch.

    (And, BTW, a ton of depth.)

    Speaking of depth, here's where all those relievers come in. Cincinnati's pen, as you are well aware, is sorely lacking solid fastballs. Enter Viola, Roenicke, Aasadorian, Guevara, McBeth, and a host of good arms and hope a couple stick each year. It's not sexy, it's not headline grabbing, but it was the one thing Bowden was really, really good at year after year and it's the one thing that's been missing since he took his leather pants on up to the nation's capital. Add a couple good, young arms to a solid bullpen core and hope it works out.

    (Psst, that's more depth.)

    None of this mentions Francisco, who is 20 and has shown a rare ability to hit the ball a long way. He may be Samone Peters, he may be Austin Kearns. Shrug. Who knows? All I know is, people like the long ball, and I suspect he's much higher than a C prospect on most minor league expert cards. Others in the same vein include Fisher, Watson, LeCure, Turner, Soto, and Tyler Pelland.

    That's 23 players from the GCL to the International League. That's four A-type prospects, which didn't happen last season for any team, 11 B prospects, and 23 total prospects with some intriguing numbers. Add in Stubbs and the Boy Wonder from Puxatawney and that's 25 prospects.

    Time was, you couldn't find 25 guys to talk about in the Cincinnati pipeline. Many experts said it was last year, in fact. (Psst, they were wrong, then, too.) This year, Cincinnati has had a lot of kids step up and have really solid seasons and four or five have truly outstanding seasons. That's heady stuff.

    And it's hardly a pipeline with little top end talent and no depth.

  7. #21
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    Re: Where does the Reds farm system rank?

    Quote Originally Posted by SteelSD View Post
    Yeah, I know and I don't at all care. At this point he's a 27-year old project rather than a prospect.
    Yeah, lets not worry about a guy with mid 90's heat in his first year as a pitcher because he is old and obviously will never help the big club.

    I see. You'd consider Juan Francisco as a potential top 10 prospect based on nothing but his power potential but wouldn't consider Waring why? Because Waring is a whole year older than Francisco?
    Francisco is a level higher, has nearly the same problem as Waring with high strikeouts and low walks, plays the same position and is a year and a half younger than Waring.

    Sure. 24 and 25-year old players are "fast comers" because they're playing against age-equitable competition. Sorry, but no.
    Age only goes so far. Viola is in his first year as a reliever and his first year in the US and has absolutely DOMINATED the competition he has faced. Roenicke played football in college for UCLA and didn't play much baseball. He has turned his first full season into a very successful AA season.

    Danny Dorn is 23 in high A ball. Adam Rosales (who I've always liked) is no longer a middle infielder at age 24. Considering how you've always pimped Jay Bruce because of his age versus his level, I'm a bit flabbergasted by the fact that you haven't considered the age comps on a good majority of Reds' prospects.
    Dorn is actually OPSing 1.089 in AA as we speak and has been there since late July. Rosales is 24 and is looking pretty good with his .933 OPS in AA and he has actually been playing SS and 3B lately. As for Jay Bruce and age/level, he is a freak.

    The Reds don't have a lot of high-level depth in the minors. Sorry, but if you were truly keyed into the Reds minor league system you'd realize that.
    Yeah, 4 top 75 players in the minor leagues surely is not high level. Maybe if you were more keyed into the Reds minor league system, you wouuld realize that.

    If Jim Callis had Francisco as the Reds' #6 prospect, I'd consider that a complete indictment of the Reds' minor league system.
    Or the fact that scouts love his potential and BA listens to what the scouts say.

  8. #22
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    Re: Where does the Reds farm system rank?

    Heck, scrap irony didn't even mention Devin Mesoraco, Scott Carroll or Kyle Lotzkar, all top 3 round picks this past season in his 'depth chart' he went through.

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    Re: Where does the Reds farm system rank?

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    You forgot about Michael Griffin, 23 years old, hitting .329/.368/.497 in AA (also hit over .300 in Sarasota in the first half), Pedro Viola, 24 years old, combined 1.42 ERA in 82.1 innings where he has allowed 55 hits and struck out 94, Tyler Pelland, 23 years old, now in AAA with a 3.18 ERA, 1.06 WHIP and 27 strikeouts in 22.2 innings of relief. Of course there is asl older semi prospects with Chris Dickerson and Buck Coats in AAA....
    I guess sarcasm doesn't always translate on a message board.
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    Re: Where does the Reds farm system rank?

    Quote Originally Posted by Blue View Post
    I guess sarcasm doesn't always translate on a message board.
    No, I got your sarcasm, I just felt the need to add a little more to it.

  11. #25
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    Re: Where does the Reds farm system rank?

    Quote Originally Posted by Scrap Irony View Post
    SD, I respectfully disagree. A bunch.

    Cincinnati has four ROY candidates for 2008. Votto and Bruce have top end talent and should have enough at-bats for the award. Too, both Bailey and Cueto have shown a propensity for missing bats and are arguably the top one-two punch still in the minor leagues, as far as top end pitchers. Both have ace potential and stuff.
    FOUR Rookie of the Year candidates? No. And those are the guys I have some hope for.

    Too, other A to B level talent you accidentally omitted or didn't think about include:
    The omissions you speak of weren't accidental.

    Danny Dorn
    Has hit everywhere he's been and continues to pound the ball in AA. Good eye, good discipline, good pop. In short, everything a top end prospect should have. He's in AA, BTW. And, if Valaika is a B prospect, Dorn certainly is. He's hit better and at a higher level.
    The reason I consider Valaika a "B" prospect (and he's on the low edge of "B") is that he's what Dorn isn't- a middle infielder. Dorn had a great start at Billings and his 90 AB run at AA is super while alternating between LF and DH. But in the middle is a line of .281 BA/.359 OBP/.456 SLG at Sarasota. He's not going to continue a HR rate near one every ten AB going forward and may be a man without a position.

    Adam Rosales
    Speaking of AA, Rosales has had a resurgence at the plate after a poor showing last season in High A. His 71 extra base hits promise serious pop and, even if he can't play SS anymore, he's shown a legitimate bat. He, too, is in AA.
    Oh, I know all about Rosales bat. In fact, I felt Rosales (as a SS) was a top prospect back when doug still had Miguel Perez high on his list. But the position change hurts pretty badly. I think Rosales is currently at the high end of "C" prospect, but he'll have to demonstrate that his power outburst is repeatable (it's heavily driven by Triples) to move up from there at his current position.

    Darryl Thompson
    Don't like hitters? How about young Mr. Thompson? All he's done is skate through two leagues with a combined 14-5 season and a 3.18 ERA. And he's young as well, at 21. Prospect gurus will be all over him. Or at least they should. He's a solid B prospect.
    Daryl Thompson being healthy is great. Problem is that the two times he's actually been healthy his HR/9 rates have been well over 1.00. For his minor league career, his HR/9 rate is at 0.96. That's way too high.

    Matt Maloney
    Speaking of pitching, let's take a look at Maloney. His fastball doesn't pass the look test, but his numbers are incredible. Want K rate? BB:K ratio? He delivers in spades. Maloney destroyed AA and in a short trial run at AAA, he's shown that same K ability. He's a poor man's Kevin Slowey and he's certainly a B prospect. I'd suspect Maloney will be, too.
    Maloney, like Rosales is on the upper cusp of "C". He doesn't throw very hard and relies on his breaking stuff to grab those impressive K totals. Problem is that his HR rates have climbed as he's advanced to face hitters better able to hit breaking balls. Sans velocity, that doesn't project well.

    Speaking of depth, here's where all those relievers come in. Cincinnati's pen, as you are well aware, is sorely lacking solid fastballs. Enter Viola, Roenicke, Aasadorian, Guevara, McBeth, and a host of good arms and hope a couple stick each year. It's not sexy, it's not headline grabbing, but it was the one thing Bowden was really, really good at year after year and it's the one thing that's been missing since he took his leather pants on up to the nation's capital. Add a couple good, young arms to a solid bullpen core and hope it works out.

    (Psst, that's more depth.)
    When you're counting 25-year old AA relievers (Roenicke, Guevara) and 27-year old positional conversion projects (Asadoorian, McBeth) as quality depth, then there's a serious depth issue. The 24-year old Viola has looked good though while ascending to AA. But these aren't some young guns running wild through the system. They're big "ifs". Now that IS a place where the Reds have depth in the minors.

    None of this mentions Francisco, who is 20 and has shown a rare ability to hit the ball a long way. He may be Samone Peters, he may be Austin Kearns. Shrug. Who knows? All I know is, people like the long ball, and I suspect he's much higher than a C prospect on most minor league expert cards. Others in the same vein include Fisher, Watson, LeCure, Turner, Soto, and Tyler Pelland.
    Why would we need to mention Francisco at this point. The guy does one thing decently well- hit the ball out of the yard. The rest of the guys you list are the epitome of "C" prospects.

    That's 23 players from the GCL to the International League. That's four A-type prospects, which didn't happen last season for any team, 11 B prospects, and 23 total prospects with some intriguing numbers. Add in Stubbs and the Boy Wonder from Puxatawney and that's 25 prospects.

    Time was, you couldn't find 25 guys to talk about in the Cincinnati pipeline. Many experts said it was last year, in fact. (Psst, they were wrong, then, too.) This year, Cincinnati has had a lot of kids step up and have really solid seasons and four or five have truly outstanding seasons. That's heady stuff.

    And it's hardly a pipeline with little top end talent and no depth.
    I still can't find 25 guys in the system worth talking about.
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    Re: Where does the Reds farm system rank?

    Steel, I would ask you this: What teams have a better farm system than the Reds?
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    Re: Where does the Reds farm system rank?

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    Yeah, lets not worry about a guy with mid 90's heat in his first year as a pitcher because he is old and obviously will never help the big club.
    Quit it. You know as well as I do that such a project is a HUGE "if". Huge.

    Francisco is a level higher, has nearly the same problem as Waring with high strikeouts and low walks, plays the same position and is a year and a half younger than Waring.
    Brandon Waring: 1 HR/13.5 AB, 1 BB/12.48 AB
    Juan Francisco: 1 HR/21.92 AB, 1 BB/23.91 AB

    Yes, they're surely the same.

    Age only goes so far. Viola is in his first year as a reliever and his first year in the US and has absolutely DOMINATED the competition he has faced. Roenicke played football in college for UCLA and didn't play much baseball. He has turned his first full season into a very successful AA season.
    I see. Young becomes a positive when you're pimping Jay Bruce or Juan Francisco versus Brandon Waring, but age can't be used as a potential negative when talking about players you like. Got it.

    Dorn is actually OPSing 1.089 in AA as we speak and has been there since late July. Rosales is 24 and is looking pretty good with his .933 OPS in AA and he has actually been playing SS and 3B lately. As for Jay Bruce and age/level, he is a freak.
    Yes, I know Danny Dorn is in AA. Wonderful first 90 AB. Doesn't trump the 338 he put up in Sarasota this year. Hot streaks are fun, but they're not reality. And Adam Rosales has not been playing a bunch of SS and 3B recently. He's got two games at each position since the middle of August.

    Yeah, 4 top 75 players in the minor leagues surely is not high level. Maybe if you were more keyed into the Reds minor league system, you wouuld realize that.
    Go back and re-read what you responded to. I noted that the Reds have little in the way of high level DEPTH. And, aside from your consistent overrating of the kids currently in the system, they don't. Even this year you were demanding that guys like Paul Janish and Cody Strait were future MLB starters. No caveats either. You were certain.

    So please don't get chippy when I dare to position an opinion that runs contrary to yours.

    Or the fact that scouts love his potential and BA listens to what the scouts say.
    Hey, I'd love to love the potential of a kid who has one decent offensive tool (some HR pop). But I don't.
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  14. #28
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    Re: Where does the Reds farm system rank?

    Quote Originally Posted by kaldaniels View Post
    What, and this question is for anyone, could the Reds have done up to this point to "destroy" Bailey...please elaborate. While I'm not happy with the results of this year...I would find it hard to spout out that the Reds may have "destroyed" him.
    If anything the Reds have been over-protective of Bailey.
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    Re: Where does the Reds farm system rank?

    Quote Originally Posted by Blue View Post
    Steel, I would ask you this: What teams have a better farm system than the Reds?
    Here's a return question: Why does that actually matter?
    "The problem with strikeouts isn't that they hurt your team, it's that they hurt your feelings..." --Rob Neyer

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  16. #30
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    Re: Where does the Reds farm system rank?

    Quote Originally Posted by SteelSD View Post
    So please don't get chippy when I dare to position an opinion that runs contrary to yours.
    Im not even going to reply to anything else you said, becuase well we have done it many times before because we are both strong on our opinions and will just continue to go back and forth just for the sake of going back and forth. We disagree on a LOT of things in respect to our farm system.

    As for what I quoted, how about you dont get chippy with me in the first place?


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