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Thread: Where does the Reds farm system rank?

  1. #31
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Where does the Reds farm system rank?

    Quote Originally Posted by SteelSD View Post
    Here's a return question: Why does that actually matter?
    Becuase you claim we don't have a strong farm system, so you obviously think there are a lot of teams with better ones. Im pretty sure he was just looking to see who you thought had better systems so he could go look and see what you consider strong.

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  3. #32
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    Re: Where does the Reds farm system rank?

    Quote Originally Posted by SteelSD View Post
    Here's a return question: Why does that actually matter?
    Since the question of the thread was ranking the Reds system, it would appear to be the only relevant question.

    I think that BA ranked the Reds system around the middle last year (forget where), lets assume around 15. I'm pretty sure the Reds ranking will improve, so I think it will be around 8-12.

  4. #33
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    Re: Where does the Reds farm system rank?

    Quote Originally Posted by PuffyPig View Post
    Since the question of the thread was ranking the Reds system, it would appear to be the only relevant question.

    I think that BA ranked the Reds system around the middle last year (forget where), lets assume around 15. I'm pretty sure the Reds ranking will improve, so I think it will be around 8-12.
    The Reds system ranked 12th actually.

  5. #34
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    Re: Where does the Reds farm system rank?

    I think the knowledge that dougdirt shares on other farm systems is a good perspective for the Reds system. I appreciate it.
    I would have to think that the Reds system must be in the top 1/3 because we have 4 prospects that are not only locks to make the majors (barring an unforeseen serious injury, of course) but have the potential to be above average major leaguers. That is remarkable in comparison to other systems. I think the last two drafts have developed depth in our system for middle infielders, and athletic OFers. This was especially important, to my perception, for the middle infielders, because of our lack of even adequate prospect depth before 2006 (Paul Janish was our top middle IF prospect - you draw your own conclusions.)
    The Reds are trying to build catching depth, and the positive offensive developments of Tatum and Perez (I think his comeback from elbow surgery escaped people's attention, but look at his power numbers - I am optimistic that he has turned a corner offensively this year), and the drafting of Mesoraco bodes well, even if they do not boast a legitimate ML prospect at the position yet.
    I am very concerned about our starting pitching depth, because after Bailey and Cueto, there is a big dropoff to Maloney and another dropoff to Watson (who will probably end up in the bullpen anyway), and then there is a chasm. In my opinion, we need to emphasize starting pitching in the 2008 draft.

  6. #35
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    Re: Where does the Reds farm system rank?

    This farm system may not be tops in baseball but they are headed in the right direction. They have plenty of talent at all levels of the system, and MLB fill in players at AAA. I think somebody alot of you guys missed was Miguel Perez. He's having a good year offensivly, and defensivly.
    If you can't build a winning team with that core a fire-sale isn't the solution. Selling the franchise, moving them to Nashville and converting GABP into a used car lot is.
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    Re: Where does the Reds farm system rank?

    Quote Originally Posted by SteelSD View Post
    Here's a return question: Why does that actually matter?
    uhh... because it would indicate how we are positioned for the future compared to the rest of MLB?

    I answered your question.
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  8. #37
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    Re: Where does the Reds farm system rank?

    Quote Originally Posted by SteelSD View Post
    Here's a return question: Why does that actually matter?
    Its like a recruiting class in college sports. It gives you a rough idea of the future.
    If you can't build a winning team with that core a fire-sale isn't the solution. Selling the franchise, moving them to Nashville and converting GABP into a used car lot is.
    -LTlabner

  9. #38
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    Re: Where does the Reds farm system rank?

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    Becuase you claim we don't have a strong farm system, so you obviously think there are a lot of teams with better ones. Im pretty sure he was just looking to see who you thought had better systems so he could go look and see what you consider strong.
    Just because another team may be "stronger" or "weaker" in the pipeline doesn't have anything to do with the quality of the Reds' prospects.

    For example, let's say the Reds leapfrogged the Brewers in minor league ranking after the call-ups of Gallardo and Braun. Ditto for the Royals now that Butler and Gordon are in the Show. That says nothing about the Reds. The talent in the system didn't suddenly get any stronger. Do the 2007 MLB presences of Delmon Young, Jason Hirsh, Troy Tulowitzki, Chris Iannetta, Philip Hughes, and Joba Chamberlain make the Reds system "look" better by comparison? Yep. But it's an illusion.

    Where the Reds rank is irrelevant. There's nothing to be gained by comparative analysis considering that minor league pipelines are in constant states of flux. The real target is the quality and projection of the players the Reds have in their pipeline and their ability to impact the MLB team. Everything else is a red herring.
    "The problem with strikeouts isn't that they hurt your team, it's that they hurt your feelings..." --Rob Neyer

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  10. #39
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Where does the Reds farm system rank?

    Well Steel, you are right, another teams system has nothing to do with the Reds system. It does have something to do with what you view as the stronger systems though. Which I think is what people are asking of you, since you obviously think the Reds system isn't that strong.

  11. #40
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    Re: Where does the Reds farm system rank?

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    Well Steel, you are right, another teams system has nothing to do with the Reds system. It does have something to do with what you view as the stronger systems though. Which I think is what people are asking of you, since you obviously think the Reds system isn't that strong.
    I think my previous post was quite clear.
    "The problem with strikeouts isn't that they hurt your team, it's that they hurt your feelings..." --Rob Neyer

    "The single most important thing for a hitter is to get a good pitch to hit. A good hitter can hit a pitch that’s over the plate three times better than a great hitter with a ball in a tough spot.”
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  12. #41
    Vampire Weekend @Bernie's camisadelgolf's Avatar
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    Re: Where does the Reds farm system rank?

    Quote Originally Posted by SteelSD View Post
    Just because another team may be "stronger" or "weaker" in the pipeline doesn't have anything to do with the quality of the Reds' prospects.

    For example, let's say the Reds leapfrogged the Brewers in minor league ranking after the call-ups of Gallardo and Braun. Ditto for the Royals now that Butler and Gordon are in the Show. That says nothing about the Reds. The talent in the system didn't suddenly get any stronger. Do the 2007 MLB presences of Delmon Young, Jason Hirsh, Troy Tulowitzki, Chris Iannetta, Philip Hughes, and Joba Chamberlain make the Reds system "look" better by comparison? Yep. But it's an illusion.

    Where the Reds rank is irrelevant. There's nothing to be gained by comparative analysis considering that minor league pipelines are in constant states of flux. The real target is the quality and projection of the players the Reds have in their pipeline and their ability to impact the MLB team. Everything else is a red herring.
    If the Reds weren't allowed to call up their prospects, I'd say that's a pretty good argment. Besides, those names you just mentioned are just a few examples, and what kind of effect would they have on the overall rankings of farm systems?

  13. #42
    Red's fan mbgrayson's Avatar
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    Re: Where does the Reds farm system rank?

    Well, lets look at each minor league team and their records. This is one of the indicators BA uses when ranking systems.

    2007
    Rookie Billings: 36-34 (5 games left, 3rd place)
    GCL Reds: 15-41 (last place)
    Low 'A' Dayton: 78-62 (won 1st half-in MWL playoffs)
    High 'A' Sarasota: 81-59 (won 1st half-in FSL playoffs)
    'AA' Chatanooga: 67-73 (2nd place in division in 2nd half, .5 game out)
    'AAA' Louisville: 74-70 (2nd place in division)

    So overall, in 2007 the Reds farm teams are 351-339. That is a .509 winning percentage. (With 5 games left to play).

    In 2005, the Reds farm teams were 309-272. That is a .454 winning percentage.
    In 2006, the Reds farm teams were 358-332. That is a .519 winning percentage.

    And it is worth noting that in 2005, only 1 of the Reds 6 minor league affiliates had a winning record. In 2006, 3 of 6 had winning records. And in 2007, they have had 4 teams playing above .500 baseball out of 6 leagues. They are doing better. (The winning percentage was a little better in 2006 because Chatanooga was playing 22 games over .500, and Billings 26 games over .500,)
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  14. #43
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    Re: Where does the Reds farm system rank?

    Quote Originally Posted by camisadelgolf View Post
    If the Reds weren't allowed to call up their prospects, I'd say that's a pretty good argment. Besides, those names you just mentioned are just a few examples, and what kind of effect would they have on the overall rankings of farm systems?
    The effect is huge. Take, for example, Kevin Goldstein's pre-season organizational rankings at BP:

    http://www.baseballprospectus.com/ar...articleid=5870

    BP ranked only two Brewers' prospects as "Excellent" coming into the season. Those guys were Braun and Gallardo. The Royals ranking of #9 coming into the season was entirely based on Billy Butler, Alex Gordon, and Luke Hochevar. Two of those three are currently in the Show. Arizona? BP wasn't counting Carlos Quentin or Stephen Drew and take a look at the rest of the list...

    Player (2007 high Level)

    Chris Young (MLB)
    Justin Upton (MLB)
    Carlos Gonzalez (AAA)
    Miguel Montero (MLB)
    Alberto Callaspo (MLB)
    Dustin Nippert (MLB)
    Mark Reynolds (MLB)
    Brett Anderson (A+)
    Micah Owings (MLB)
    Emilio Bonifacio (AA)

    Now, I'm saying saying I completely agree with the inclusion of any or all of those players on a top 10 list. In fact, I don't like external lists for anything but informational purposes. However, all but three have seen MLB service time this season. Not all have been positives, but Chris B. Young has been doing yeoman's work manning CF while smacking some HR (28). Needs improvement in the hitting department. Miguel Montero has been bad offensively after being good offensively part time during his last two MiL seasons. Dustin Nippert's taking some lumps with a plus fastball and spotty command. Micah Owings is something the Reds haven't seen in years- an effective home-grown MLB Starting Pitcher. Mark Reynolds joined the club and has provided a much-needed .832 OPS. Conner Jackson, Quentin, and Stephen Drew no longer counted of course. That's 10 guys over two seasons who would no longer count as "prospects", but are we to say the Reds' system is "better" than the D-Backs'?

    It might be fun to look at how an organization "stacks up" to others when that organization isn't really releasing any prospects to the Show while the others are churning them in quick fashion, but that doesn't give us an accurate perspective on how good the Reds' system really is.

    For a look at the pre-season list, Goldstein's system ranked the Reds 9th in hitting and 16th in pitching (10th overall) while saying this about the system:

    A once moribund system suddenly has a potential ace in Homer Bailey and a potential impact outfielder in Jay Bruce. Joey Votto is pretty good in his own right, but the talent falls off in cliff-like fashion in short order.

    Now, that's not factoring in the the 2007 amateur draft, but every team gets to participate in that annual event. For the teams churning prospects, it's unlikely they'll be able to replace the minor league ranking "value" of players like Braun, Gallardo, Butler, and Gordon in a single draft.

    On the plus side, the Reds' system is getting better. There's certainly more talent down there than we saw two years ago. That's a start. But it's not nearly enough yet.
    "The problem with strikeouts isn't that they hurt your team, it's that they hurt your feelings..." --Rob Neyer

    "The single most important thing for a hitter is to get a good pitch to hit. A good hitter can hit a pitch that’s over the plate three times better than a great hitter with a ball in a tough spot.”
    --Ted Williams

  15. #44
    He has the Evil Eye! flyer85's Avatar
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    Re: Where does the Reds farm system rank?

    Quote Originally Posted by SteelSD View Post
    Where the Reds rank is irrelevant. There's nothing to be gained by comparative analysis considering that minor league pipelines are in constant states of flux. The real target is the quality and projection of the players the Reds have in their pipeline and their ability to impact the MLB team. Everything else is a red herring.
    exactly. The proof will be in the pudding. Will any of these guys come up and make an impact? We'll find out.
    What are you, people? On dope? - Mr Hand

  16. #45
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Where does the Reds farm system rank?

    So the system was ranked 10th in the preseason by BP, has no doubtedly gotten stronger since then, regardless of what anyone else has done, our system has added more depth and more high end talent, and its not a strong system Steel?


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