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Thread: Where does the Reds farm system rank?

  1. #46
    He has the Evil Eye! flyer85's Avatar
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    Re: Where does the Reds farm system rank?

    This is similar to projecting college recruiting classes. There comes a time when prospects get to play and all the projections don't matter at that point. We'll know the farm system is getting better when "prospects"(or suspects) start having an impact at the major league level or they get turned into something that impacts at the major league level.

    Where the Reds system ranks isn't really worth debating. Just start graduating impact players and most won't care where those players or the system was ranked.
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  3. #47
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    Re: Where does the Reds farm system rank?

    Does that BP report discuss the drafting of Waring and Frazier? Does it analyze the emergence of Dorn and or the re-emergence of Rosales? How about the multiple level jump of Jay Bruce, Michael Griffin, Craig Tatum, and many, many others this season. Does it discuss that? Does it report on how more effectively Miguel Perez and Daryl Thompson are because they're healthy?

    Of course it doesn't. Because it's last year's news.

    New year. More depth. More top end talent. Better future ballclub.

    And that's why it matters.

  4. #48
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    Re: Where does the Reds farm system rank?

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    So the system was ranked 10th in the preseason by BP, has no doubtedly gotten stronger since then, regardless of what anyone else has done, our system has added more depth and more high end talent, and its not a strong system Steel?
    I'm sorry, doug, but that's not how I see it. It's not strong and I'd suggest that any strengthening you propose is due to the Reds participation in the same draft everyone else gets to have. And it's overly-dependent on the future performance of four guys.

    One (Jay Bruce) is very solid. He does have his flaws. His BB rate is lower than I'd like it to be, but I'm going to acknowledge that he may improve in that area with time. I think you know I've always been fair with Bruce even though I don't consider him to be an incredible historical outlier regarding his age comps. He's the best prospect the Reds have and one of the best in baseball- particularly from an age/performance/tools combined perspective.

    The next is Bailey. I'm elated that he's been relatively healthy, his current issues notwithstanding. He's very young, throws hard, but he doesn't throw as hard as advertised. He's had consistent issues with command- including command issues when he tries to throw his higher velocity fastballs. His breaking stuff is raw and inconsistent even when he's on. He's yet to find a truly repeatable release point. We've gone round and round on Bailey's potential and probability for future success. His K rate dropped dramatically after advancing to AAA. His BB rate increased. Pretty much every year it's something with this kid and it's a good reminder of how difficult it is to get a raw, powerful High School arm to manifest itself as the weapon of a future MLB ace pitcher.

    And before you note that I've never given Bailey a real chance, I'd like to point out that I'm actually holding out hope that he'll be a real MLB contributor sometime in the next two to three years. I just think folks have always had expectations that were much too high for him and that's one of the reasons he ended up getting a call to the Big club even though he was nowhere near ready. The result was poor performance and an injury that required a rehab assignment that saw him shelled at Sarasota. I know you don't care about rehab assignment results, but is his 2007 path really what either of us wanted to see?

    Cueto's up next. What's not to like about this kid? He's young, he's healthy, and he's demonstrated about as near a true performance "trifecta" as you'd like to see with a career line of 0.63 HR/9, 2.16 BB/9, and 9.23 HR/9 and he carried that K rate into AAA (unlike Bailey). My concern here is a HR/9 rate that's advanced along with Cueto through the org. It started in 2006 at Sarasota (0.88 HR/9), disappeared in 2007 at Sarasota (0.34 HR/9) but then reared it's ugly head this year at both Chatt (1.00 HR/9) and Louisville (0.82 HR/9). I'm hoping that those are aberrations tied to performing against older competition, just as I'm hoping that the Reds can figure out that his size is not a disadvantage.

    Then Joey Votto. Like him I do. But with the recent rumors about the organization's defensive concerns with him, he's downgraded. As I've noted elsewhere, former D-Back's prospect Chris Carter was shipped out for command-light Emiliano Fruto. Carter profiles a LOT like Votto. Mid-range power, solid plate discipine, and a defensive question mark.

    After that, the talent level falls off a cliff regardless of your demands that Cody Strait and Paul Janish types are certain MLB starter material. If that's what you're looking for out of prospects, then I can see why we disagree.

    As for the addition of other high-end talent via the minors this season, where is it? The Reds took a huge gamble with Devin Mesoraco in the first round this year. Ditto with Drew Stubbs last season. Chris Valaika is struggling severely during his first prolonged exposure to high-A pitching. As long as he stays in the middle infield I have hope, but jeez. I consider Frazier and Waring to be nice additions, but only Waring is doing something I'd consider to be significant.

    No one else is really pushing anyone at a higher level. Where is the laundry list of hitters who are really crushing their levels while being age-equitable? Where is the extreme rundown of starting pitchers who are simply making opposing hitters shake their collective heads?
    "The problem with strikeouts isn't that they hurt your team, it's that they hurt your feelings..." --Rob Neyer

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  5. #49
    Posting in Dynarama M2's Avatar
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    Re: Where does the Reds farm system rank?

    I don't know how strong the Reds' system is, though it is more interesting.

    The real question these days is what's for real down there and what's an illusion.

    For instance, Jay Bruce and Todd Frazier strike me as being legit. Bruce is an enfant terrible and Frazier can flat out hit (I'm thinking he could have a Youkilisian future). After them things get a lot murkier. Pitching is always tough to gauge because young arms are so volatile. Homer Bailey seemed like a sure thing and now he's going haywire for reasons that have not been made apparent (though I tend to think it's because he's 21 and not ready to compete at the levels into which the organization pushed him, now he doesn't trust his stuff). Johhny Cueto may be a better prospect or maybe he's just the flavor of the day and his 2008 will mirror Bailey's 2007. Travis Wood got injured. Matt Maloney, Carlos Fisher and Sam Lecure give the franchise more upper minors starting pitching depth than we've seen in a while and that's good, but I'm not sure the Reds have a legit starting pitching prospect in A ball. Darryl Thompson and Sean Watson don't do a thing for me as starters. If I had to take a flyer on one of the arms down there, I'd probably choose Travis Webb. No one's lighting it up at Billings (maybe Scott Carroll, but he was a late arrival). Kyle Lotzkar is 17, I'm not putting a lot eggs in that basket any time soon.

    So while there's a bit of a bubble, I'm not seeing a lot behind it. Roenicke and Viola may be the best actual pitching prospects in the pipeline. Asadoorian didn't really distinguish himself this year. I would put him decidedly behind Roenicke, Viola, Salmon, McBeth and Guevara at the moment. I'd probably take Dushan Ruzic over Asadoorian.

    Beyond Bruce the position players aren't exactly stacked either. Votto's having a solid season, but he's not exactly dominating. After them in the high minors you've got a lot of filler - Dickerson, Rosales, Dorn, Castro and Henry are the best of the lot.

    It's fairly similar in A ball. Frazier looks like his bat is ready-made, but what is there beyond him? Valaika, Heisey and Francisco have all got OB issues. Francisco doesn't have OB issues so much as a lack of ability. He seems to be cut from the Tony "Gormingo" Blanco mold. Heading into today Stubbs had a .775 OPS. That's not pretty. Cozart's struggled mightily. Justin Turner might just be the best of the option outside of Frazier.

    We'll see about the guys in the rookie leagues when they get to full season ball. Waring had a huge season in Billings, but we'll see how sea level treats him. Soto's interesting, but he hasn't done anything Willy Jo Ronda didn't in the GCL.

    So I'd say the Reds have a compelling top five - Bruce, Bailey, Cueto, Votto and Frazier - and that probably will raise the organizational profile for the time being. Perhaps the question to ask is where the system will rank after Bruce graduates?
    Last edited by M2; 09-04-2007 at 12:25 AM.
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  6. #50
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    Re: Where does the Reds farm system rank?

    Quote Originally Posted by Scrap Irony View Post
    Does that BP report discuss the drafting of Waring and Frazier? Does it analyze the emergence of Dorn and or the re-emergence of Rosales? How about the multiple level jump of Jay Bruce, Michael Griffin, Craig Tatum, and many, many others this season. Does it discuss that? Does it report on how more effectively Miguel Perez and Daryl Thompson are because they're healthy?

    Of course it doesn't. Because it's last year's news.
    That's interesting, because I brought up both Waring and Frazier with my first post on this thread and I noted them as positives.

    The "emergence" of Dorn is isolated to around 90 AA AB as his 338 AB at Sarasota are pretty uninspiring for a DH/LF prospect (.815 OPS). He's basically a guy without a position. Michael Griffin? He of the .737 career MiL OPS and a .682 OPS last year in Dayton? Craig Tatum? The guy who's produced a .729 career MiL OPS at age 24, including a .648 OPS at AA this season?

    Miguel Perez? At this point? Perez was always healthy while producing awful numbers at every stop and Daryl Thompson is gets banged around to a tune of over 1.00 HR for every 9 IP every time he is healthy.

    The guys you've mentioned are either fringe prospects or non-prospects at this point. Are we so starved for real prospects that we need to start looking at those who aren't as such?
    "The problem with strikeouts isn't that they hurt your team, it's that they hurt your feelings..." --Rob Neyer

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  7. #51
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    Re: Where does the Reds farm system rank?

    Thanks M2 and SteelSD for destroying an interesting discussion. Instead of learning from the guys in this section who spend a lot of time following minor league ball, you criticise their opinions with obviously shallow observations, inconsistent critical criteria, and foolish sounding idioms (you ought to use generally accepted scouting terminology, but you don't). I hope you derived some satisfaction from diminishing the level of discourse in this thread, because I didn't.

  8. #52
    One and a half men Patrick Bateman's Avatar
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    Re: Where does the Reds farm system rank?

    Quote Originally Posted by SteelSD View Post
    Mark Reynolds joined the club and has provided a much-needed .832 OPS.
    I agree with most of what you said, but Reynolds has some serious on base issues, and that's been a recurring problem.

    His 0.23 BB/K tells most of the story, and once his luck equalizes, you are going to have a huge out machine. His power is intriguing, but he still has a pretty long way to go before being counted on as much of present help. Considering he's already 24, I'm not a fan of his long term outlook.

  9. #53
    Posting in Dynarama M2's Avatar
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    Re: Where does the Reds farm system rank?

    Quote Originally Posted by Betterread View Post
    Thanks M2 and SteelSD for destroying an interesting discussion. Instead of learning from the guys in this section who spend a lot of time following minor league ball, you criticise their opinions with obviously shallow observations, inconsistent critical criteria, and foolish sounding idioms (you ought to use generally accepted scouting terminology, but you don't). I hope you derived some satisfaction from diminishing the level of discourse in this thread, because I didn't.
    Yeah, because we haven't been following the farm system for ages.

    For the record, I didn't make a single comment about anybody's observations, simply stated my own. I suggest you get over whatever it is that's stuck in your craw.
    Baseball isn't a magic trick ... it doesn't get spoiled if you figure out how it works. - gonelong

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  10. #54
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    Re: Where does the Reds farm system rank?

    Steel, I have come to the conclusion you want the Devil Rays system and anything less is not strong.

  11. #55
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    Re: Where does the Reds farm system rank?

    Oh, and where did I ever say Cody Strait (who I ranked 23rd last year) or Paul Janish (who I overranked at 11, although BP also overranked him at 10 and BA overranked him at 9, so lets be honest, I did a better job than they did, right?) were ever going to be, as you claim, certain MLB Starters. I went back and looked, I didn't say anything of the sort. I said Janish plays good defense and has good plate discipline and he may hit well enough one day to get by as a starter somewhere. I said that Strait has a very interesting combo of power and speed. Nowhere did I say anything about certain MLB starters.

  12. #56
    I hate the Cubs LoganBuck's Avatar
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    Re: Where does the Reds farm system rank?

    Steel why no love for Drew Stubbs? Aside from the issues surrounding drafting him, his injuries, and his lackluster time in Billings last year his numbers outside of this June have been very good. I haven't checked his stats over the last few days but he was leading the league in runs scored. I know you can not completely discount his June, but I do believe it was an injury issue. I know you will respond with his age versus level of competition, but I think that is a dumb organizational philosophy thing that hits all other prospects not named Homer Bailey. He plays a very nice centerfield, has a good arm, and sticks out like a sore thumb as a superior athlete. You notice him pretty quickly while watching the Dragons. Bruce was very similar in the field last year. They glide to the ball.

    I am not saying he will be a superstar, but I think he has the makings of a very useful player.

    Lets be fair here, the argument about rankings and depth is pure conjecture. Baseball America puts out a Top 100 list every year. Of that list only a handful of those players turn into All stars, even once in their career. A third of the players become useful major leaguers, another third get cups of coffee and wash out, and another third fail to reach the bigs/get injured. I would much rather look at the comparative cornucopia of talent now as compared to 4 years ago. We can at least agree on that can't we?
    The Sox traded Bullfrog the only player they've got for Shottenhoffen. Four-eyes Shottenhoffen a utility infielder. They've got a whole team of utility infielders.

  13. #57
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    Re: Where does the Reds farm system rank?

    Quote Originally Posted by LoganBuck View Post
    Steel why no love for Drew Stubbs? Aside from the issues surrounding drafting him, his injuries, and his lackluster time in Billings last year his numbers outside of this June have been very good. I haven't checked his stats over the last few days but he was leading the league in runs scored. I know you can not completely discount his June, but I do believe it was an injury issue. I know you will respond with his age versus level of competition, but I think that is a dumb organizational philosophy thing that hits all other prospects not named Homer Bailey. He plays a very nice centerfield, has a good arm, and sticks out like a sore thumb as a superior athlete. You notice him pretty quickly while watching the Dragons. Bruce was very similar in the field last year. They glide to the ball.
    Drew Stubbs since July began has put up this line .308/.394/.517 in Dayton. That covers his most recent 250 plate appearances.

  14. #58
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    Re: Where does the Reds farm system rank?

    If two teams are said to have equally-ranked farm systems, but one team has more players come up to the big leagues this year, doesn't that only say that one team's talent was closer to the big leagues than the other? If you look at the talent in the Reds' system, you should notice that the AAA squad is pretty weak, and the AA squad isn't particularly strong, but from high-A and down, things are very exciting. If you're going to rank teams besides on their farm system, I think it's fair to say the Reds have one of the stronger systems. If you're going to rank teams based on how close their talent is to the MLB level, then that's a completely different ranking system altogether.

  15. #59
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    Re: Where does the Reds farm system rank?

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    Steel, I have come to the conclusion you want the Devil Rays system and anything less is not strong.
    Or maybe we just define "strong" differently?

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    Oh, and where did I ever say Cody Strait (who I ranked 23rd last year) or Paul Janish (who I overranked at 11, although BP also overranked him at 10 and BA overranked him at 9, so lets be honest, I did a better job than they did, right?) were ever going to be, as you claim, certain MLB Starters. I went back and looked, I didn't say anything of the sort. I said Janish plays good defense and has good plate discipline and he may hit well enough one day to get by as a starter somewhere. I said that Strait has a very interesting combo of power and speed. Nowhere did I say anything about certain MLB starters.
    dougdirt at redreporter.com, March 29th 2007:

    Now as for the rest of the Farm system he <Dan O'Brien> brought in Travis Wood, Sam Lecure, Johnny Cueto, Paul Janish, Milton Loo and Cody Strait who are all within the Reds top 11 prospects.

    As for Janish, we will have to agree to disagree on that one. He will be a starter someday and an above average one.

    My apologies for incorrectly positioning your opinion of Strait. You haven't stated he was a sure starter- just one of the Reds' top 11 prospects coming into the season. However, you were pretty clear on Janish.

    But if that list of players comprised the bulk of the Reds' top 11 prospects in March, 2007 then maybe you can begin to understand why I'm not entirely fired up about the overall quality of the Reds' system? Just maybe?
    "The problem with strikeouts isn't that they hurt your team, it's that they hurt your feelings..." --Rob Neyer

    "The single most important thing for a hitter is to get a good pitch to hit. A good hitter can hit a pitch that’s over the plate three times better than a great hitter with a ball in a tough spot.”
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  16. #60
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    Re: Where does the Reds farm system rank?

    Quote Originally Posted by LoganBuck View Post
    I would much rather look at the comparative cornucopia of talent now as compared to 4 years ago. We can at least agree on that can't we?
    My concerns about Stubbs are well documented. No reason to hash them out here. However, I actually already noted that the Reds' system IS better than it was in past seasons. And as M2 noted, it's at least more interesting regardless of how much better it actually is (which is the real point of dissention).
    "The problem with strikeouts isn't that they hurt your team, it's that they hurt your feelings..." --Rob Neyer

    "The single most important thing for a hitter is to get a good pitch to hit. A good hitter can hit a pitch that’s over the plate three times better than a great hitter with a ball in a tough spot.”
    --Ted Williams


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