Regarding the state of the Reds, I would say that the farm system is in better overall shape than it was last year, although I agree that it is a pretty significant dropoff after the top four.
Thanks to good health (generally speaking), the pitching depth is nice, particularly in upper-level relievers. The Reds need to sort through the keepers and the chaff in short order because the major league club can't carry fifteen relievers. I hope to see several of these guys shipped out for major league players because their value will likely diminish in the next year or so.
I don't see any Jay Bruce-like breakout candidates on the horizon on the offensive side of the ledger, although there are several intriguing candidates in the low minors. Offensive player depth is generally scarce. On the other hand, BP's Kevin Goldstein thought the first-half Dayton club was loaded with talent, and I generally agree with him.
Regarding Dorn: his .815 OPS in Sarasota didn't match Bruce's or Rosales' performance. However, it was actually quite good when adjusted for the league. His OPS was 10th best in the circuit, which is what you would hope to see.
What the club is missing are prospects that can both hit and defend. I think Frazier and/or Stubbs could provide that mix, but we'll have to see about Frazier's glove and Stubbs' bat.
I liked the 2007 draft for its value approach (Frazier and Cozart were both likely first rounders coming into the year). I'm not anticipating that Mesoraco is on the fast track, however.
The system is definitely short on "sure thing" prospects (or even near-sure thing ones), but I like that it has a fairly wide collection of interesting talent. That is more than we could have said for most of the the 2000s.