Where does the Reds farm system rank?

[GoReds33]

I would put Brandon Waring third. I know it is way early. I just feel like his power if rediculious. If he can get his strikeouts down, and his walks back up he will be a beast.

[Patrick Bateman]

Waring shouldn't be third. The Reds have 4 guys that should be unquestionably at the top.

Waring isn't a huge tools guy. His prospect status has been boosted by his monster success in rookie ball. You can't rank a guy ahead of elite prospects solely on their success at that low of a level. He is very intriguing though. The question is what kind of success will he maintain.

[Jay Bruce]

I would put Brandon Waring third. I know it is way early. I just feel like his power if rediculious. If he can get his strikeouts down, and his walks back up he will be a beast.

While his power is unquestionably intriguing, I don't like the 21/83 BB/K ratio, especially in only 267 at-bats. Not even Adam Dunn struck out at that kind of rate in the minors. He has some adjustments to make before I could rate him above the big four, Stubbs or Frazier.

[Redman15]

If you rate them by their performance on the field after two seasons, Dorn would have to rank higher than Stubbs. Forget how many tools they have. There has been plenty of five tool players that can't get it done when they step on the field. Rate the players on their accomplishments on the field, not what round they were drafted. Dorn was a 32nd rounder and has out played the 1st
rounder for 2 straight years.

[dougdirt]

If you rate them by their performance on the field after two seasons, Dorn would have to rank higher than Stubbs. Forget how many tools they have. There has been plenty of five tool players that can't get it done when they step on the field. Rate the players on their accomplishments on the field, not what round they were drafted. Dorn was a 32nd rounder and has out played the 1st
rounder for 2 straight years.

But you can't do that though. If you rated guys off of just their numbers, Craig Brazell would be one of the best prospect in the minor leagues probably.

[RedsManRick]

While the major league OPS average may be .750, major league CFs did a whole lot better than a .750-.800 OPS in the minors.

I'm curious just how true this statement is M2. I think we all work on that assumption, but I've never really seen the data on it.

It's not like you're gauranteed to lose 50 OPS every level you move up, or else we'd see guys OPSing 1200 in A ball. Pujols had a .921 minor league OPS and has a 1.039 major league OPS.

I agree that given Stubbs' level and age, he should probably be hitting much better. That said, guys develop and improve. Sometimes they go up a level and do better than the year before. Especially in the first year or two, I'm much more inclined to listen to what the scouts are telling me. Most of the scouts still seem pretty high on Stubbs. Like you, I'll be happy when he actually does turn the corner, but let's just be really careful about using stats to judge guys in the steepest part of their development curve.

[PuffyPig]

You can have all the offense in the world but pitching is going to win games (see the Reds dead last ERA in the majors for 2007 and by a large margin).

The Devil Rays have the worst ERA in the majors, and by a large margin.

[lollipopcurve]

If you rate them by their performance on the field after two seasons, Dorn would have to rank higher than Stubbs. Forget how many tools they have. There has been plenty of five tool players that can't get it done when they step on the field. Rate the players on their accomplishments on the field, not what round they were drafted. Dorn was a 32nd rounder and has out played the 1st
rounder for 2 straight years.

I think Dorn is getting less recognition than he deserves at this point. Not sure the comparison to Stubbs is 100% appropriate in that a good bit of Stubbs' value is in his defensive ability. Maybe, Redman, you know a little more about Dorn -- how's his defense?

[dougdirt]

I think Dorn is getting less recognition than he deserves at this point. Not sure the comparison to Stubbs is 100% appropriate in that a good bit of Stubbs' value is in his defensive ability. Maybe, Redman, you know a little more about Dorn -- how's his defense?

For what its worth, I know a guy who does a stat based prospect ranking system and he ran Dorn through it. He guesses the number it spit out would rank Dorn in the 150-225 range.

[Patrick Bateman]

While his power is unquestionably intriguing, I don't like the 21/83 BB/K ratio, especially in only 267 at-bats.

Great point. This is generally a great indicator that unless his plate approach changes, he's going to have some major problems moving up. That's the line of a player with poor on base abilities. The power is nice, but a more patient approach would make much better use of it.

Waring has a long way to go.

[Redman15]

Dorn has three errors in his 2 seasons to Stubb's 12. Dorn gets good jumps on balls. His arm isn't as good as Stubbs. He is a corner guy. I would give the defensive edge to Stubbs (CF) and Dorn the offensive edge. I don't understand how most people say you can't use stats. The people that really matter (Reds player development) move players up or down solely based on their performance. I believe thats why Dorn is in AA and Stubbs is in Low A. This is not a knock on Stubbs. I like Stubbs and think he will be a great player. I just don't see him in the top 4 yet based on his 1st 2 seasons.

IMO tools are only good for the draft. You can get the best player, with the best tools, but you still have to develop that player. Once these players are in the system, you have to rate these players by their performance on the field, not their tools or draft position.

Doug where does Stubbs rank in his stat based system?

[nate]

For what its worth, I know a guy who does a stat based prospect ranking system and he ran Dorn through it. He guesses the number it spit out would rank Dorn in the 150-225 range.

Hey, here's an off the wall question.

Approximately how many minor leaguers are there? Both with the Reds and pro baseball in general.

[dougdirt]

Hey, here's an off the wall question.

Approximately how many minor leaguers are there? Both with the Reds and pro baseball in general.

Lets just guess at 28 players per roster (which is probably a low number given DL'd players and rookie level rosters which have up to 40 or so players on some teams). According to Milb.com there are 182 Minor League teams in the USA. 28*182 = 5096. So there are over 5000 minor leagues.

[nate]

Interesting. It makes sense although I never thought the number was that high. Combined with some 750 major league guys (25 man roster * 30 teams) you're looking at around 5800 dudes that play pro ball.

Sorry to derail the thread, just something that was a curiosity.

[Redman15]

For what its worth, I know a guy who does a stat based prospect ranking system and he ran Dorn through it. He guesses the number it spit out would rank Dorn in the 150-225 range.

So I would guess his system would put Stubbs in 250-325 range?