NFL Picks: Week 1: Big Game for Bengals

[Edskin]

This has become a pretty popular "segment" over on the Redskins board-- I thought some of you NFL fans might find it an enjoyable read.

www.edkleese.blogspot.com

NFL Week One Picks, Pats, and Apologies

Back for the third year in a row, I present my weekly PPA thread. First a quick review of the previous two seasons:

2005 Regular Season: 163-91
Playoffs: 6-5 (correctly picked Super Bowl)
Record Picking Redskins (including playoffs): 14-4

2006Regular Season: 146-110
Playoffs: 8-3 (correctly picked Super Bowl)
Record Picking Redskins: 8-8

As you can see, much like the Redskins, 2005 was much kind to me than 2006. I got off to a bad start, never got any momentum, and wound up with a disappointing record. I did have a nice run during the playoffs last year, but it was too little, too late. 2007 promises to be different. Week one is unique in that there are no "pats" or "apologies," just picks.

New Orleans at Indianapolis: I predict the Colts to struggle somewhat this season, but I think the Saints secondary is about to get lit up on national TV. New Orleans is an extremely one-sided team in terms of their offense vs. their defense. I think Brees and company will put up some points, but they won't be able to keep pace.

Colts 34, Saints 24

Philadelphia at Green Bay: Every year I see a week one game that screams "surprise" to me. This is it. Green Bay has done a very good job of replenishing their roster with talented young players-- especially along the offensive line. I also have an odd feeling that all may not be well in Philly.

Packers 27, Eagles 20

Atlanta at Minnesota: Before the Michael Vick saga, I had the Falcons pegged as a 6-10 type of team in 2007. Now? Yikes. Vikings will roll.

Vikings 26, Falcons 10

Miami at Washington: Easiest game on the Redskins schedule comes in week 1. Miami's offense is brutal and the defense is getting old. Trent Green is a shell of his former self. The Dolphins are a mess. Every team tends to "show up" week one, and I'm still not convinced the Redskins offense is capable of blowing anyone away, but I think Washington will control this game from start to finish.

Redskins 23, Dolphins 13

New England at New York Jets: Every year there seems to be one team that burns me over and over and over again. Last year, it was the Jets. I picked against them week after week and kept losing. When I finally went with them, they lose to a team like Buffalo. I see this as an extremely entertaining game, but one the Pats will win.

Patriots 24, Jets 20

Tennessee at Jacksonville: It's a good thing Jeff Fisher is still in Tennessee, because this was a disasterous off-season for them losing Adam Jones and Travis Henry, while failing to improve the team through free agency. The Titans rode on Vince Young's magic wings for some wild wins last year. In 2007, I have a feeling that magic may fizzle a bit.

Jaguars 20, Titans 13

Denver at Buffalo: I just don't like the direction in which the Bills are headed. I am not a fan of Dick Juaron, and J.P. Losman underwhelms me at best. Their defense lost some key contributors. Denver, on the other hand, seems infused by the emergence of Jay Cutler.

Broncos 21, Bills 16

Pittsburgh at Cleveland: Week one always bring fans that magic word in sports: HOPE. Browns fans better live it up this week, because after Sunday they will realize it's going to be the same ole', same ole' in Cleveland this year.

Steelers 20, Browns 10

Carolina at St. Louis: The Panthers could announce they were swapping rosters with the University of North Texas, and Carolina would still be a media darling. However, the media fails to realize that the Panthers had a pathetic offensive attack last year, and it only got older, not better.

Rams 24, Panthers 21

Kansas City at Houston: The Chiefs could very well be in the top 5 of the draft next year. Expect a major fall from grace for this surprise playoff team from 2006.

Texans 28, Chiefs 21

Tampa Bay at Seattle: I can't quite decide if I think the Seahawks have missed their window and will begin to slide, or if they are still the class of the NFC West. Either way, we won't find out much this Sunday, as Tampa doesn't have the weapons to win a tough road game at this point.

Seahawks 20, Bucs 17

Chicago at San Diego: Oh, Rex. It's all on you, my friend. The Bears defense is obviously stellar, but no one will go into San Diego and "shut down" the Chargers this year. Rex must make plays. I'll believe it when I see it.

Chargers 22, Bears 17

Detroit at Oakland: For the three of you who will be watching-- expect a close game, with the Lions winning late.

Lions 19, Raiders 17

New York Giants at Dallas: The Giants season is 100% on the shoulders of Eli Manning. Their defense isn't talented enough to win games for them and their running game won't be as reliable minus Tiki. However, the Giants do have some potential for good things if Manning can put it together on a consistent basis. I'm a doubter.

Cowboys 29, Giants 21

Baltimore at Cincinnati: Week one is probably more important to the Bengals than to any other team this year. After a disappointing season in 2006, Cincy gets a shot at the defending Central champs at home, on Monday Night. This is as close to must-win game as it can get in week one. I am picking the Bengals to win the division-- I will change that pick if they drop this one.

Bengals 16, Ravens 15

Arizona at San Francisco: A fun way to end a good slate of games in week one. I think both of these teams has a legitimate shot to win the division, but both are saddled with inexperience at almost every key position. I'm going with Arizona because I like Matt Leinert a tad more than I like Alex Smith, but this one is toss up.

Cardinals 30, 49ers 28

[oneupper]

This Dol-fan salutes you, Edskin.

Looking forward to starting off the season with a win over your 'skins.

Hopefully our teams will give us something to cheer about this season...after much disappointment last season.

[Edskin]

one-upper,

I think the Dolphins are going to be really bad this year. It's the NFL, so anything can happen-- I certainly think you should enter the season with some hope, as all fans should.

Having said that, I REALLY didn't like Trent Green last year in KC-- even without the injury, I thought his game had slipped big time. And the Dolphins really don't have anyone behind him that screams "future" to me. Lemon is a project at best. To top it off, even the most die-hard Dolphin fan would have to admit that the O line is leaky and unproven-- and Green is a statue back there.

I'm also not a huge Ronnie Brown fan, and it doesn't sound the Miami coaching staff is either.

AND....I wasn't a big fan of the Cam Cameron hire. He worked for the Redskins a number of years back and he has always struck me as a career assistant, in the Norv Turner mold.

The Dolphins defense is pretty tough, but again, their key players are getting older-- and I'm not real big on their corners. IMO, Jason Taylor basically carries that entire team by himself some weeks. He's the only player on that roster that scares me this week.

As I mentioned in my blog, I can't see the Redskins offense blowing anyone out right now, especially not a solid defense like Miami. But the Redskins do run the ball well, and Jason Campbell has looked really good lately.

I see the Redskins doing enough on offense and Miami doing basically nothing.

It won't be a blowout on the scoreboard, but I think the Redskins will control this game.

And this isn't just a pure homer pick-- I have this as one of the Redskins 8 wins this year.

[oneupper]

ED...

Unfortunately you're probably right. I'm just hoping (praying) that a couple of breaks can give the fish a win against an average team like the 'skins, cause you know its not going to be enough when we play the Jets or the Pats.

As for the QB situation. I'm still fuming they didn't draft Cutler when they had the chance.

[joshnky]

After a disappointing season in 2006, Cincy gets a shot at the defending Central champs at home, on Monday Night.

I think someone's still in a baseball state of mind.

[Johnny Footstool]

Having said that, I REALLY didn't like Trent Green last year in KC-- even without the injury, I thought his game had slipped big time. And the Dolphins really don't have anyone behind him that screams "future" to me. Lemon is a project at best. To top it off, even the most die-hard Dolphin fan would have to admit that the O line is leaky and unproven-- and Green is a statue back there.

To be fair, the only time Trent Green was fully healthy last season was for the first few minutes of the first game. He had post-concussion syndrome for the remainder of the year, so his game was foggy at best.

At 37, with a porous offensive line, I don't envision much of a comeback for him this year, but still, he should get a pass for last season.

[Edskin]

Nice catch josh-- I even proofread it several times

[bucksfan2]

Here are some of my thoughts about the upcoming season

I am confused as to why the Ravens are thought so highly of. They had a good record last season playing a soft schedule and if you take away the first 5-10 minutes of the first time the bengals played them the Bengals dominated the Ravens. McNair and Lewis are old, there is a reason the Bills let McGahee go, outside Heap they don't have a top notch reciever.

I also see the Jets falling this year. Luck last year and I don't think there will be too much talk about the Mangenius this year.

I see the pats team getting worse but is record will remain good. Not buying Moss as the moss of the past, losing Harrison and Seymore is going to hurt and their D is old.

I see the Bills making a big jump this year. If Lynch is good the Bills may be in the mix for the wild card.

I see the Steelers a little below .500. You dont lose Cohwer and your defensive leader in Potter and expect to continue to play at that high of a level.

I woud be very warry of LJ getting hurt this season. He had a ton of carries over the past 2 years, their pro bowl offensive line is gone, and he is going to be their only offensive weapon. Not good for a team who probably will be trailing a lot this season.

I like the Pats, Colts, Bengals, and San Diego winning divisions with Denver and Baltimore/Buffalo taking the wild cards.

In the NFC I like Philly, Chicago (even though Rex is the worst qb in the league), New Orleans, and Seattle taking the divisions with San Francisco and Carolina taking the wild cards.

[Caveat Emperor]

The best part about Week 1 is that, no matter the outcome, its the closest Tampa Bay will be to a winning record all season.

The defense is older, not better, and Jeff Garcia haunts my dreams with the awfulness of his play.

Its going to be a LOOOONNNG season.

[TeamSelig]

I'm a big Bengals fan, but I'm not so sure we will win week 1. I hate the Ravens (Cubs/Cardinals level) though and hope they win.

[GoReds33]

Can you smell what the Marv is cookin??? Smells like bird... could it be a Raven?

[RBA]

WEEK ONE PICKS

COLTS OVER SAINTS
EAGLES OVER PACKERS
BRONCOS OVER BILLS
KC OVER HOUSTON
STEELERS OVER BROWNS
PANTHERS OVER RAMS
PATRIOTS OVER JETS
VIKINGS OVER FALCONS
DOLPHINS OVER SKINS
JACKSONVILLE OVER TITANS
CHARGERS OVER BEARS
SEAHAWKS OVER BUCS
GIANTS OVER COWBOYS
RAVENS OVER BENGALS
49ERS OVER CARDS

LOCK PICK OF THE WEEK: RAIDERS OVER LIONS