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Thread: BA Hot Sheet year end

  1. #16
    Member Eric_Davis's Avatar
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    Re: BA Hot Sheet year end

    Quote Originally Posted by OnBaseMachine View Post
    Umm, Jay Bruce hit .320 this season.
    That's not high enough. Walker would hit .350, .360.

    Bruce's minor league average is .299, and he hit .304 at Louisville this year.
    Rob Neyer: "Any writer who says he'd be a better manager than the worst manager is either 1) lying (i.e. 'using poetic license') or 2) patently delusional. Which isn't to say managers don't do stupid things that you or I wouldn't."

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  3. #17
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    Re: BA Hot Sheet year end

    Quote Originally Posted by Eric_Davis View Post
    That's not high enough. Walker would hit .350, .360.

    Bruce's minor league average is .299, and he hit .304 at Louisville this year.
    I thought we went over this a few months ago? Remember that post where I showed named many superstars who didn't hit many homers in the minors but then went on to to hit hundreds upon hundreds in the majors? Apparently you forgot. Prospects don't just step in and hit .350 with 50 homers in the minors. Their bodies are still filling out and getting stronger among other things while in the minors.

  4. #18
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    Re: BA Hot Sheet year end

    I see him more like Dave Parker, without the cocaine. Parker was a career .290 hitter in the Majors. Bruce could have a couple of peak years like Parker where he hits in the .330's, but overall, not a high average hitter like Walker. I think he'll stay healthy more like Parker than like Walker.
    Rob Neyer: "Any writer who says he'd be a better manager than the worst manager is either 1) lying (i.e. 'using poetic license') or 2) patently delusional. Which isn't to say managers don't do stupid things that you or I wouldn't."

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    Re: BA Hot Sheet year end

    Quote Originally Posted by Eric_Davis View Post
    That's not high enough. Walker would hit .350, .360.
    Have you ever seen Walkers minor league stats? I doubt it. Click action right here

  6. #20
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    Re: BA Hot Sheet year end

    Jay Bruces .299 looks a lot better than Walkers .259 in the Minors.

  7. #21
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    Re: BA Hot Sheet year end

    Bruce has about the same speed as Parker. Walker was slow as molasses. He'd hit 3-5 triples in a year where Parker would hit around 10. I see Bruce getting near that 10 Triple Mark even with the small ballparks that he'll play in. He also won't have the inconsistent years that Parker had that cocaine helped to create.
    Rob Neyer: "Any writer who says he'd be a better manager than the worst manager is either 1) lying (i.e. 'using poetic license') or 2) patently delusional. Which isn't to say managers don't do stupid things that you or I wouldn't."

  8. #22
    Member Eric_Davis's Avatar
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    Re: BA Hot Sheet year end

    Quote Originally Posted by Grande Donkey View Post
    Have you ever seen Walkers minor league stats? I doubt it. Click action right here
    Don't just read the numbers. Understand what you're looking at. He had an incredible number of at-bats where he was rehabbing where he'd hit below .100 during the same season where he'd hit .290 in the Majors.

    ...and OBM is right. Minor League numbers are not a direct reflection of what will happen in the Majors. There's a lot to look at.
    Rob Neyer: "Any writer who says he'd be a better manager than the worst manager is either 1) lying (i.e. 'using poetic license') or 2) patently delusional. Which isn't to say managers don't do stupid things that you or I wouldn't."

  9. #23
    Member Eric_Davis's Avatar
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    Re: BA Hot Sheet year end

    I like what Bruce said. He's unique and no one including himself knows what he's going to turn out to be like as every month of every year is a constant series of adjustments and maturity. He could go many directions from here. He could become a Homerun hitter, a High-Average hitter, or both. He could become a Gold Glove Center Fielder. He's only 20. What's been great so far is he seems to be able to stay healthy.
    Rob Neyer: "Any writer who says he'd be a better manager than the worst manager is either 1) lying (i.e. 'using poetic license') or 2) patently delusional. Which isn't to say managers don't do stupid things that you or I wouldn't."

  10. #24
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: BA Hot Sheet year end

    Quote Originally Posted by Eric_Davis View Post
    Don't just read the numbers. Understand what you're looking at. He had an incredible number of at-bats where he was rehabbing where he'd hit below .100 during the same season where he'd hit .290 in the Majors.

    ...and OBM is right. Minor League numbers are not a direct reflection of what will happen in the Majors. There's a lot to look at.
    Larry Walker hit .223, .289, .283, .287 and .270 from the age of 18 until the age of 22 in the minor leagues. He also didn't reach AAA until the age of 22.

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    Re: BA Hot Sheet year end

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    Larry Walker hit .223, .289, .283, .287 and .270 from the age of 18 until the age of 22 in the minor leagues. He also didn't reach AAA until the age of 22.
    Yeah, but, in the Majors he didn't. And Walker played hurt a lot, and Walker was so important to his team, and Walker had to protect other hitters, and Walker was a great locker room guy, and Walker at the age of 30 was still a star.

    Bruce hasn't done any of that yet. I just don't see it.

  12. #26
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    Re: BA Hot Sheet year end

    Quote Originally Posted by AvesIce51 View Post
    Yeah, but, in the Majors he didn't. And Walker played hurt a lot, and Walker was so important to his team, and Walker had to protect other hitters, and Walker was a great locker room guy, and Walker at the age of 30 was still a star.

    Bruce hasn't done any of that yet. I just don't see it.
    Yeah, in his first 5 seasons he spent in the majors he hit .170 (granted it was 20 games), .241, .290, .301 and .265. It wasnt until Walker was 27 until he really broke out and hit .322/.394/.587.

    Bruce hasn't done any of that yet either though I guess.....

  13. #27
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    Re: BA Hot Sheet year end

    Quote Originally Posted by Eric_Davis View Post
    I hope he'll never be anything like Larry Walker. The guy could rarely play 3/4th's of a season ever.
    If the guy turns out to be a Larry Walker player I won't be depressed. I will just be happy he didn't turn out to be a horrible bust. Larry Walker was terrific when healthy.
    If you can't build a winning team with that core a fire-sale isn't the solution. Selling the franchise, moving them to Nashville and converting GABP into a used car lot is.
    -LTlabner

  14. #28
    Playoffs Cyclone792's Avatar
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    Re: BA Hot Sheet year end

    Quote Originally Posted by Eric_Davis View Post
    That's not high enough. Walker would hit .350, .360.
    Strictly because of Coors Field.
    • Walker career in Coors: .381/.462/.710/1.172
    • Walker career road: .278/.370/.495/.865

    In one season, in 1999, Walker hit .461/.531/.879/1.410 in all his 273 plate appearances in Coors Field. Think about that ... have you ever heard of any player hitting .461 over 273 plate appearances? I think Ty Cobb had a stretch like that in 1911, but come on. If not for Coors Field, those high seasonal batting averages Walker posted would have been far more difficult to attain (though to be fair, he did hit .346 on the road in 1997).

    Larry Walker was a very good hitter (and player), but Coors Field turned him into the monster he's now known as. That .965 career OPS he put up would probably be around 75 points lower had Walker never played for the Rockies.
    Barry Larkin - HOF, 2012

    Put an end to the Lost Decade.

  15. #29
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    Re: BA Hot Sheet year end

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    Yeah, in his first 5 seasons he spent in the majors he hit .170 (granted it was 20 games), .241, .290, .301 and .265. It wasnt until Walker was 27 until he really broke out and hit .322/.394/.587.

    Bruce hasn't done any of that yet either though I guess.....
    i hope you noted my sarcasm

  16. #30
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    Re: BA Hot Sheet year end

    Quote Originally Posted by Cyclone792 View Post
    Strictly because of Coors Field.
    I was just about to post that.

    Bottom line, Bruce just flat-out rakes. He's only 20, way, way away from being as good as he's going to get. He's a terrific athlete, not a guy with old-player skills who's going to max out quickly.

    I know some folks are preconditioned to downplay Reds prospects to forestall disappointment, but frankly, if Jay Bruce doesn't project as a star then I'm hard-pressed to say where stars come from.
    Not all who wander are lost


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