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Thread: Looking to see who can be centerfield

  1. #91
    Posting in Dynarama M2's Avatar
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    Re: Looking to see who can be centerfield

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post
    I agree with everything you've said in the quoted post. However, just for a little context concerning this specific comment, compared to '06, the defense has been dramatically upgraded at shortstop even with Gonzo likely only being league average. Also, even though Hamilton is likely going to grade out as a below average defensive center fielder (my guess is that he'll end up -5 to -10 based upon play-by-play metrics), Hamilton/Freel/Hopper in CF is a huge upgrade over Jr. Unfortunately a lot of that gain is given right back by having Jr in right.
    Good points. The Reds definitely need to upgrade the defense in at least one OF corner.

    The front office decision might even be that it wants to upgrade the defense in both OF corners, which is fine. Though that might be a process that takes the next 18 months to play out.
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  3. #92
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    Re: Looking to see who can be centerfield

    Terrific discussion. Improve pitching by improving defense. Improve defense up the middle first.

    Quote Originally Posted by edabbs44 View Post
    Have to agree, though dealing someone (Junior/Dunn), getting pitching/prospects in return and using the saved money to get an OFer (Hunter?) is pretty attractive.

    Though pitching is of the most urgent priority, IMO.
    This seems pretty close to the final analysis to me.

    1. Hamilton is worth more to the Reds (huge upside, limited cost) than he would be to any other team. He therefore must stay.

    2. Hamilton can play CF, perhaps, but not between Griffey and Dunn.

    3. Therefore, Griffey or Dunn must move to first or to another team.

    4(a). Griffey or Dunn moves to first, Votto is dealt for a CF (Hamilton to corner) or P.

    4(b). Griffey or Dunn moves to another team. Since no one is likely to deal a CF for Griffey or Dunn (why not keep the better defender for less money?), Griffey or Dunn dealt for P. Reds call up Bruce for OF of Grif/Dunn, Hamilton, Bruce OR Reds sign OF for Grif/Dunn, new CF, Hamilton.


    The problems with 4(a) are that it would be tough to move Dunn or Griffey to first and that Votto is not worth an interesting, cheap arm.

    The problem with 4(b) is that if I'm a GM, I would probably rather spend $15 million on Hunter or Jones than $12 million or whatever plus a good arm on Griffey or Dunn. And, in reality, we are talking Dunn, because Griffey presents the same kind of situation as Hamilton - he is more valuable to the Reds (tradition, 600 HR year) than he would be to another team.

    If I were a betting man, I would bet on an '08 OF of Dunn/Hamilton/Griffey.

  4. #93
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    Re: Looking to see who can be centerfield

    Quote Originally Posted by backbencher View Post
    If I were a betting man, I would bet on an '08 OF of Dunn/Hamilton/Griffey.

    Could a team made up of all lefty's (like it seems like the Reds are becoming) succeed?

    Dunn, Hamilton, Griffey, Votto, Bruce... I realize that all of these won't be in the lineup but that is a lot of leftys. This one fact leads me to believe that Encarnacion isn't going anywhere this winter and/or one of the above is. Bruce and Hamilton I think are safe...

    By the way... I noticed that Joey Votto looked a lot like a AAAA type player.
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  5. #94
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    Re: Looking to see who can be centerfield

    It seems to me the best way to upgrade the OF defense is to remove Dunn and/or Griffey from the outfield. The best way to do that is move one of them to first base.

    I understand your point is to upgrade CF and then move Hamilton to RF. But you could accomplish the same defensive improvement by bringing in a LFer or RFer and leave Hamilton in CF. Opening up the talent search to all outfielders gives us more options because we won't be limited to centerfielders.

    I predict 2008 will be the last year Dunn and Griffey will be outfielders.

  6. #95
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    Re: Looking to see who can be centerfield

    Quote Originally Posted by flyer85 View Post
    GABP is one of the easiest CFs to patrol in all of the majors.
    This is true. The last time I checked (too lazy to check now), GABP had relatively few outfield chances due to a lack of square footage. In other words, having a top-notch centerfielder is less crucial for the Reds than it is for other teams.

    Of course, they do have to play half their games on the road. So if the opportunity arose to pick up a stud defenisive CF, the Reds should consider it. I just don't think it's a priority.

    Instead if Brude/Hamilton can play an average CF, AND the Reds have the opportunity to make a $$ splash elsewhere (e.g. a 3B who can mash, a couple great arms, a corner OF or 1B), I'd rather they focus their resources in that direction.

    Rojo - if the Royals have soured on DeJesus (not sure they have), I'd love to have the guy. This was supposed to be the year he increased his HR total, but it didn't happen. Maybe in the NL with the weaker pitching he would.

    I've said for years that the guy has the potential to be Paul O'Neill with more speed.

    If the Reds want to keep DeJesus and toss Gathright, I wouldn't mind Gathright either. I think the need for a "true leadoff" man is overrated, but Gathright has actually shown potential to get on base at the major league level.

    And Island Red, tossing out Granderson isn't a BIT of a stretch. It's a plastic-man elastigirl megastretch. The guy is setting world records for triples and OPS'ing into the 900s despite being in a big pitchers park. He's made for that park, and the Tigers love him.

    One guy who I like and can probably be had for a song is Gabe Gross of the Brewers. He's slugged in the .470s in the majors over the past 2 years (has destroyed AAA, when given consistent playing time), gets on base okay, just turned 27, is a big guy who is probably due for more power in the next two years, plays a plus corner-OF defesne, and as good a CF as anyone we have.

    He makes $400,000/year and the Brewers have a crowded OF.
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  7. #96
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    Re: Looking to see who can be centerfield

    Here are some more guys who I regard as either CF's or "plus-corner guys". The latter would make sense if Griffey or Dunn were either traded or moved to the infield.

    I've divided these guys into categories.

    Legit top prospects, who would be part of a major trade involving our veterans. Could feasibly hit at the major-league average next year, and be all-stars within a couple years.
    Brandon Moss - Boston
    Colby Rasmus - STL

    Seemingly undervalued by their organizations, due to either a position-glut, or poor talent evaluation. Might be acquired for cheap
    DeJesus
    Gathright
    Gross, Gabe
    Scott, Luke - Houston


    Post-hype sleepers. May need a change of scenery (Next year's Marlon Byrd?)
    Choo, Shin-Soo - Cle (injured a lot this year)
    Snelling, Chris - Seattle (injured a lot every year)

    Righty platoon guys - to help resolve our perceived/actual struggles vs. lefty starters
    guttierez, fr - Cle
    michaels, jason - Cle
    Murton, M - Cubs
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  8. #97
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    Re: Looking to see who can be centerfield

    The advantage of finding an elite fielding CFer, is that then you could theoretically move Hamilton to a corner, and improve the defense two fold.

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    Re: Looking to see who can be centerfield

    Lately I'm thinking the Reds should deal Griffey and let Dunn go. I just don't think the trade market is very viable right now, and this will give the Reds the most ready cash possible to throw at FAs as they leverage their major-league ready young talent to replace expensive vets.

    Here's what I'd try to do with the money saved -- bring in Rowand and Carlos Silva.

    OF defense: Hamilton in LF, Rowand CF, Bruce RF. Nice.

    I'd try Hunter, too. The strong RH bat is a necessity, and there's no one on the horizon in the minors. I have to think the prospect of playing with a very strong group of young position players, in between Hamilton and Bruce, would be appealing to a veteran CF with something left in the tank. He'd also have to recognize that the numbers he'd put up in GAB would position him nicely for another decent payday down the road.

    So, there you have it. I'm on record for saying it's time to move beyond Griffey-Dunn. Balance the offense, fix the OF defense, get a legit starter, sacrifice none of the prospects. Shift the paradigm. Wayne & Bob will need to step up and get in the free agent scrum. It's time.
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  10. #99
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    Re: Looking to see who can be centerfield

    Quote Originally Posted by lollipopcurve View Post
    Lately I'm thinking the Reds should deal Griffey and let Dunn go. I just don't think the trade market is very viable right now, and this will give the Reds the most ready cash possible to throw at FAs as they leverage their major-league ready young talent to replace expensive vets.

    Here's what I'd try to do with the money saved -- bring in Rowand and Carlos Silva.

    OF defense: Hamilton in LF, Rowand CF, Bruce RF. Nice.

    I'd try Hunter, too. The strong RH bat is a necessity, and there's no one on the horizon in the minors. I have to think the prospect of playing with a very strong group of young position players, in between Hamilton and Bruce, would be appealing to a veteran CF with something left in the tank. He'd also have to recognize that the numbers he'd put up in GAB would position him nicely for another decent payday down the road.

    So, there you have it. I'm on record for saying it's time to move beyond Griffey-Dunn. Balance the offense, fix the OF defense, get a legit starter, sacrifice none of the prospects. Shift the paradigm. Wayne & Bob will need to step up and get in the free agent scrum. It's time.
    I don't necessarily disagree with the idea, but I don't like Silva or Rowand as targets. Silva walks the fine line between mediocre and downright bad, yet is possibly the top free agent starter available - meaning he will be an expensive and long investment. Rowand is coming off what looks to me as an unlikely to be repeated career year, again making it a bad time to buy in.

    I don't think the pitchers the Reds need will be available in the FA market. Wayne will have to be mighty creative to find it via trade. If after everything is said and done they needed an outfielder to replace Griffey and/or Dunn, they could do a lot worse than Mike Cameron.

  11. #100
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    Re: Looking to see who can be centerfield

    Quote Originally Posted by lollipopcurve View Post
    Lately I'm thinking the Reds should deal Griffey and let Dunn go. I just don't think the trade market is very viable right now, and this will give the Reds the most ready cash possible to throw at FAs as they leverage their major-league ready young talent to replace expensive vets.

    Here's what I'd try to do with the money saved -- bring in Rowand and Carlos Silva.

    OF defense: Hamilton in LF, Rowand CF, Bruce RF. Nice.

    I'd try Hunter, too. The strong RH bat is a necessity, and there's no one on the horizon in the minors. I have to think the prospect of playing with a very strong group of young position players, in between Hamilton and Bruce, would be appealing to a veteran CF with something left in the tank. He'd also have to recognize that the numbers he'd put up in GAB would position him nicely for another decent payday down the road.

    So, there you have it. I'm on record for saying it's time to move beyond Griffey-Dunn. Balance the offense, fix the OF defense, get a legit starter, sacrifice none of the prospects. Shift the paradigm. Wayne & Bob will need to step up and get in the free agent scrum. It's time.
    Carlos Silva sucks IMO.
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  12. #101
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    Re: Looking to see who can be centerfield

    Quote Originally Posted by paulrichjr View Post
    Could a team made up of all lefty's (like it seems like the Reds are becoming) succeed?

    Dunn, Hamilton, Griffey, Votto, Bruce... I realize that all of these won't be in the lineup but that is a lot of leftys. This one fact leads me to believe that Encarnacion isn't going anywhere this winter and/or one of the above is. Bruce and Hamilton I think are safe...

    By the way... I noticed that Joey Votto looked a lot like a AAAA type player.
    Matsui/Damon/Abreu...just sayin'. Cabrera is the CF now and is a switch hitting lefty.
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  13. #102
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    Re: Looking to see who can be centerfield

    I don't necessarily disagree with the idea, but I don't like Silva or Rowand as targets. Silva walks the fine line between mediocre and downright bad, yet is possibly the top free agent starter available - meaning he will be an expensive and long investment. Rowand is coming off what looks to me as an unlikely to be repeated career year, again making it a bad time to buy in.

    I don't think the pitchers the Reds need will be available in the FA market. Wayne will have to be mighty creative to find it via trade. If after everything is said and done they needed an outfielder to replace Griffey and/or Dunn, they could do a lot worse than Mike Cameron.
    On Silva -- expensive, yeah. That's why I was advocating the Reds try to extend Lohse. But, as noted below, the trade market is likely going to cost you players that you'll have to replace on the FA circuit, too, and even if it is bottomfeeding, it'll be millions. Griffey & Dunn will cost you 25MM next year and probably close to 20MM in 09 (were they to buy out Griffey). Maybe you can get Silva for 27/3 or 30/4. Price of doing business, and the rotation is absolutely desperate.

    On the trade market -- you're going to have to give up really good, cheap talent (more than one such player) for a legit starter. I don't like giving up multiple players who project to giving the organization many years of affordable (and perhaps excellent) production for one pitcher, because pitchers, by their nature, carry a higher injury risk than position players. I just don't like the trade equation.

    On Cameron -- yeah, he'd be great too. Rowand, Hunter or Cameron would suit me just fine. With the CF bounty available this offseason, the Reds may just have a chance at one of them.
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  14. #103
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    Re: Looking to see who can be centerfield

    Carlos Silva sucks IMO.
    So -- your plan would be?
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  15. #104
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    Re: Looking to see who can be centerfield

    Quote Originally Posted by lollipopcurve View Post
    So -- your plan would be?
    Not letting Adam Dunn walk so the Reds could afford Carlos Silva.

    Seriously though, I think trading Griffey is a good idea and I wouldn't be crushed if they pursued Aarron Rowand.

    I'd also consider packaging up Homer Bailey while the hype is still high and try to get a starter that way.
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  16. #105
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    Re: Looking to see who can be centerfield

    Dunn, Griffey, Bruce, Hamilton. Unless you move 2 of them, you don't move for a CF in FA. Period.

    As for the SP market, find me somebody more reliable than Matt Belisle and I'd give him some money. Other than that, I'll take my chances with what we've already got an hold on to my money.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.


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