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Thread: Looking to see who can be centerfield

  1. #151
    Member Highlifeman21's Avatar
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    Re: Looking to see who can be centerfield

    Quote Originally Posted by lollipopcurve View Post
    Well, Silva can be a #5 on a winning team, I think.


    Keep in mind that the team is 3 starters short of a rotation, 2 if you're still counting on Belisle. If you go and find that undervalued guy, you're still short. You still need another pitcher who can do what I think Silva can do. You say it's about body count, and I agree -- the Reds need more than 1 guy here. That's why I say get started ASAP in the free agent market. Not only does it knock one pitcher off your to-do list, but it may send a message to other free agents (Rowand, Cameron?) that the team is on the move, the team means business. Because it will be well-known that if this team is really serious about competing, they have to get some starters...yet, if they're looking to do so on the cheap, well, it's probably going to look like the same ole Reds to a free agent who wants to win and, while the team may have a nice personality, that's not attractive.

    I absolutely agree, Silva is a #5.

    Unfortunately, we'd have to pay him #3 money. As I've said, and others have said, Carlos Silva very well could be our next Eric Milton, where we overpay for him in FA, bring him in to be way too important to our rotation due to the overpaying, and he won't even remotely produce to meet our expectations.

    If we paid Silva as a #5, and expected him to be a #5, then that would be something completely different.

    The problem with how our future rotation seems to be shaping up is that we have a #1, a #3, two kids that are unknown, and a #5. Those names are Harang, Arroyo, Cueto & Bailey and Belisle, for those of you scoring at home. We honestly don't have a legitimate #2, and seem too be too bottom heavy with #5 type starters. Maybe if we'd focus on collecting more #3 types, then we'd have a fighting chance... for 2009.

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  3. #152
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    Re: Looking to see who can be centerfield

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post
    Both are flawed but winshares is especially so concerning defense.
    They're all flawed. I look for a preponderance. If most ratings like a guy then I go with that. I don't have a pet favorite as there's really nothing that's established itself as consistent and reliably accurate (e.g. you can't compare RZRs from 2005 to the ones being used today because the zones changed). IMO, you can't put your eggs in one defensive basket. There's also some common sense to be applied. Cameron's been a central actor in top tier defenses for nine years running. The Padres, Mariners and Reds took big DER jumps when he showed up. Could the Padres lead all of MLB in DER last season and rank 6th this season carrying an anchor in CF? Probably not. Things go right when he's around. Red Auerbach had a classic line about Sam Jones when it was pointed out that Jones seemingly suffered from a skill deficit - "All I know is when I put him in the game we start scoring more than the other team." Cameron's kind of like that. Intuitively speaking, too much goes right when he's around for him not to be responsible for a healthy part of it.
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  4. #153
    Posting in Dynarama M2's Avatar
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    Re: Looking to see who can be centerfield

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post
    My radical, food for thought suggestion-if you can't buy pitching smartly, load up on offense while trying to upgrade your defense if possible.
    I couldn't agree more.
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  5. #154
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    Re: Looking to see who can be centerfield

    The Reds already "paid" for their veteren pitching with Harang and Arroyo going foward. Now they need the youngsters to step up.

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    Re: Looking to see who can be centerfield

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post

    My radical, food for thought suggestion-if you can't buy pitching smartly, load up on offense while trying to upgrade your defense if possible.

    .

    Go for it. You won't win a damn thing. But it might be fun to watch.

  7. #156
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    Re: Looking to see who can be centerfield

    Quote Originally Posted by Falls City Beer View Post
    Go for it. You won't win a damn thing. But it might be fun to watch.
    I prefer being farther ahead to spinning wheels by throwing money at a pitching bonfire.
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

  8. #157
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    Re: Looking to see who can be centerfield

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post
    I prefer being farther ahead to spinning wheels by throwing money at a pitching bonfire.
    Yeah. Just ask the Brewers how the no-pitching model is working.

    Like I said, it's fine. Might as well try to do what you're suggesting. Clearly, the FO has absolutely no ability to identify undervalued pitching. Might as well play to their strength, which appears to be, exclusively, finding undervalued hitting.

  9. #158
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    Re: Looking to see who can be centerfield

    Quote Originally Posted by M2 View Post
    RZR and Win Shares would disagree with you vociferously. Where'd Dewan have him last year?
    BP's FRAA (Fielding Runs Above Average) currently have him at -7 as a center fielder this season. His PECOTA weighted mean was a -3 for 2007. His FRAA was last season.

    This has been an excellent read M2. Thanks for starting the thread. Someday when I'm not working 14 hour days, I'll spend some time explaining why I'd be just as happy if the Reds stuck with what they have rather than test the FA market names you listed in your first post. But most of the reasons have already been listed, health risks, cost, and duration of contracts needed to land them. You mentioned these as well I believe. I would add that the defensive reputation of the players, excluding Rowand, might not be an actual representation of their abilities any longer. Certainly not before the end of the contracts required to land them in Cincy.

    Anyway, as long as we're wishcasting for center fielders, here are three players just entering their age prime years that I wouldn't mind the Reds taking a look at. Have fun. Nate McLouth, Cory (I still hate that song) Hart, and Chris B. Young. And one more. He didn't profile as a CF, but whatever happened to Elijah Dukes?

    I have a question M2. You said the Reds didn't have a "true centerfielder". What is your definition of that term? Just curious, because I know what mine is and I question if the Reds really need that type of CF. I believe it was RedsManRick who might have touched on this thought earlier.

    Ok, I just read my question to you and it sounded a bit snarky to me. It isn't meant to be. In fact, if anything I posted comes across that way, I appologize in advance. I'm just really tired right now. Again, great thread and a delightful read.
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  10. #159
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    Re: Looking to see who can be centerfield

    Quote Originally Posted by M2 View Post
    Cameron's kind of like that. Intuitively speaking, too much goes right when he's around for him not to be responsible for a healthy part of it.
    That may be true, but I don't want the Reds overpaying for it the next three seasons. Of course, that can be said for all of the teams defenciencies as well.
    "...You just have a wider lens than one game."
    --Former Reds GM Wayne Krivsky, on why he didn't fly Josh Hamilton to Colorado for one game.

    "...its money well-spent. Don't screw around with your freedom."
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  11. #160
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    Re: Looking to see who can be centerfield

    Personally, I think Shearn fits in the mix. He's pitched well and and years in the minors may have actually helped him more as a soft tosser than a kid like Ramirez who gets pushed fast and can't handle it because he hasn't learned how to pitch. He gets dissed because he was 30 debuting but for a guy like Shearn, I see that as a major advantage. He KNOWS he has to bear down and command everything he has to have a chance to stay here and he has long experience honing the ability to pitch. He doesn't seem to play around but go right after guys. He'll get pounded once in a while. He's not 1-2-3 material but he does seem to be a smart pitcher with pretty consistent command of what he does have. So, I am liking Shearn - at least as a possible #5. Between Maloney, Shearn, Bailey, Belisle, Cueto and Ramirez I think the Reds can put 2 starters out there with Harang and Arroyo. That still means you'd need 2 more guys because you will certainly need at minimum 6 starters. Hopefully Maloney and Shearn come through because I don't have a lot of faith in Belisle. I think he's an ideal long man and ocasional spot starter, though. Bailey and Cueto won't be ready to start the year, imo. I'm the odd guy who likes Cueto as a future starter more than Bailey. I think Homer's best bet is as a closer. Beat me and flame me but I am concerned about his attitude - too many grumblings here and there about his mental makeup. He kinda seems Tomko or Greinke in his attitude. Believe me, no one hopes I'm way wrong more than me!

    As for Silva - he's going to cost but for me, its not the money but the length. Less money (per year) for longer term or more money but a short term or at least a performance option to give some protection and I'm okay with the idea of trying him. Is that viable in this marketplace? Really I think M2 is right - you have to trade someone of value and try to get a guy who's been given up on but has good peripherals or a guy who had an off year but may just need a change of scenery. I'd also look hard at AL rosters for the guy. Failing a high ceiling guy I'd sure try to get a horse- a guy who has the body and arm to give you 200 or more innings of average pitching. Even that would be a help because it'd take stress off the pen.

    Mainly though I'd just develop the kids. No other way are you going to step forward in a small market. WK has to continue to pick off plums from rule 5 and "roster challenged" types. One thing he has done well is pick up some guys that give the Reds some trading chips to work with. No Kepp, Hatteberg, Hamilton or Phillips and the Reds would have nothing to deal with this winter.

    I've alluded to it before. This winter and into the trade deadline next summer, and the spring draft with a good position, and the hiring of a manager - well, this is year is the crucible for WK. He may not bring in a winner in 08 but if he makes the wrong moves he could bust this franchise for years to come - the right ones and he could set it up. I really believe it's that critical a year for WK and for the Reds. They're on the brink one way or the other - I can see them stepping way up and pretty soon, and I an see the abyss, too. Maybe more clearly forked a road than we've seen since 95 (when they clearly took the wrong turn.)

    Man, I did not answer the original question. I'm content with Hamilton and Hopper but if Hammy goes in a deal then I'd hope we could get Cameron. He's one of those guys who just seem to me to always lift the guys around them - teams he's on just seem to get better.
    Last edited by RedlegJake; 09-06-2007 at 10:48 PM.

  12. #161
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    Re: Looking to see who can be centerfield

    Great thread! It's also a good place to throw out a radical idea I came up with:
    Starting in CF for the 2008 Cincinnati Reds...BRANDON PHILLIPS

    Huh? You say. He has shown that he is great at tracking balls over his head, and he certainly has the wheels. Keppinger can take over at 2B, getting another BA driven RH bat in the line-up.

    Why the heck would you move a guy already in hand to the OF? Flexibility. I'd be busting my bottom to get Dunn signed to an extension. That done, time to go hunting for bear. Might as well go for a grizzly. Hamilton and Bailey for Roy Oswalt would have to get the Astros attention. That package could get the Reds a number of top of the rotation arms.

    I'd be willing to throw Jay Bruce into the fire in RF if I could get a prospect or two with upside for Griffey. It wouldn't break my heart to slide him into Hamilton's role to start next year if Griffey can't be traded.

    An OF of Dunn, Phillips, and Bruce would rake and could chase down a lot more flys than the current version.

    A top three of Harang, Oswalt, and Arroyo could win the whole darn thing.

  13. #162
    post hype sleeper cincinnati chili's Avatar
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    Re: Looking to see who can be centerfield

    Quote Originally Posted by Falls City Beer View Post
    Yeah. Just ask the Brewers how the no-pitching model is working.

    Like I said, it's fine. Might as well try to do what you're suggesting. Clearly, the FO has absolutely no ability to identify undervalued pitching. Might as well play to their strength, which appears to be, exclusively, finding undervalued hitting.
    He/she didn't call for a "no pitching" model. The call was to SPEND on hitters, and HUNT for pitchers. This makes sense because the outcomes of hitters are more predictable.

    There is a precedent for this. At least one.

    2002 Angels. They had exactly one expensive pitcher who was any good - Appier (see payrolls at bottom of link).

    http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/ANA/2002.shtml

    Otherwise, they loaded up on a bullpen from the independent leagues and pulled one phenom out of their minor league system.
    How, then, are those people of the futureówho are taking steroids every dayógoing to look back on baseball players who used steroids? They're going to look back on them as pioneers. They're going to look back at it and say "So what?" - Bill James, Cooperstown and the 'Roids

  14. #163
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    Re: Looking to see who can be centerfield

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post
    I prefer being farther ahead to spinning wheels by throwing money at a pitching bonfire.
    Plus, it never hurts to have talent on hand even if it's not the exact talent you need. If pitching comes available during the summer or the next off-season, theoretically you're in a position to deal for it.

    Quote Originally Posted by Falls City Beer
    Yeah. Just ask the Brewers how the no-pitching model is working.
    Hey, that's the first place Brewers you're talking about.

    Quote Originally Posted by Reds Nd2
    I have a question M2. You said the Reds didn't have a "true centerfielder". What is your definition of that term?
    Eric Davis would do nicely, but we'd need a time machine for that. Generally speaking, I like a CF who can play shallow with the legs to get into the gaps and back to the wall.

    Quote Originally Posted by Reds Nd2
    That may be true, but I don't want the Reds overpaying for it the next three seasons.
    As a rule I don't worry about overpaying if it's a good player. No one ever taunts a team for paying too much for a guy who helps it win games on a regular basis. Obviously there's limits on the amount of overpayment, but usually if a guy plays well he doesn't seem all that overpaid after two or three years.

    Though I'm totally cool with finding a low cost option, by no means am I saying the Reds must shell out for a free agent.

    Quote Originally Posted by RedlegJake
    Personally, I think Shearn fits in the mix.
    My eyes! My eyes! Make the Shearn go away!
    Baseball isn't a magic trick ... it doesn't get spoiled if you figure out how it works. - gonelong

    I'm witchcrafting everybody.

  15. #164
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    Re: Looking to see who can be centerfield

    As far as pitchers go, how does Livan Hernandez sound to anyone. Of course we'd have to over pay him(but do you think the Cubs are upset about overpaying Jason Marquis)

    Here's what he gives you. 1. Innings 2. Innings 3. Innings.
    That article in BP convinced me that signing him would be beneficial if they threw him out there for 7 innings a game come hell or high water. Assuming Arroyo and Harang keep up to their regular workloads of 200+ innings adding Hernandez reduces the number of innings the bullpen has to work.

    In a given year there are roughly 1500 innings, if you can get 600 to 700 of those taken by three guys, the remaining 8 or 9 can be counted on to be fresh.

    Fill in the other two spots with whoever wins the competition between Belisle, Bailey, Maloney, Cueto and anyone else the Reds can sign cheap.
    When people say that I donít know what Iím talking about when it comes to sports or writing, I think: Man, you should see me in the rest of my life.
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  16. #165
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    Re: Looking to see who can be centerfield

    Quote Originally Posted by cincinnati chili View Post
    He/she didn't call for a "no pitching" model. The call was to SPEND on hitters, and HUNT for pitchers. This makes sense because the outcomes of hitters are more predictable.

    There is a precedent for this. At least one.

    2002 Angels. They had exactly one expensive pitcher who was any good - Appier (see payrolls at bottom of link).

    http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/ANA/2002.shtml

    Otherwise, they loaded up on a bullpen from the independent leagues and pulled one phenom out of their minor league system.
    We spent 12 years on the "buy hitters, scrounge for pitchers" model under Bowden.

    Nothing's going to change: by the very nature of the beast starting pitchers with ALWAYS be "overvalued." There's just no changing that. And there's just no changing the fact that the teams that have mattered, since time out of mind, are the ones who possess starting pitching. And the ones who survive the postseason have starting pitching AND a bullpen. And the Reds still have neither.

    I guess I'm just not buying the theory that the Reds can magically and proactively exploit the hitting and defense market and ride that train to multiple Central championships and pennants. First, the Reds just aren't that cagey a franchise; second, some other team in the Central will pluck up enough pitching to continually beat the Reds, who have none.
    Last edited by Falls City Beer; 09-07-2007 at 08:11 AM.


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