As for whether they're longshots or not, who knows? I suppose it's fair to argue that all pitching prospects are longshots to an extent. Something's up with Bailey. It could be physical. It could be mental. Main thing is something's up. He's still got to learn to control the strikezone. That's to be expected a lot of times with 21-year-old kids. Cueto's got uncanny control, which makes him real interesting, though I'm guessing, given his size, that he's going to need to mature physically before you ask him to throw 200 major league innings in anger. Maloney, Fisher and Lecure have had the benefit of not having been brought along at ridiculously young ages. Maybe one pans out. Maybe not. Like you said, I wouldn't be banking on it.
Arroyo's having a solid season. His numbers aren't gaudy, but that's partially a function of where he pitches. He'd probably be having a good season, but for some idiot management back in May and the pathetic defense behind him. I expect him to be a solid citizen for the next few years.
I agree with you that the Reds need to push the envelope. I wouldn't put Jay Bruce on the auction block, though if he netted a suitably huge return I'd at least understand the impulse for peddling him.