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Thread: Looking to see who can be centerfield

  1. #196
    Posting in Dynarama M2's Avatar
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    Re: Looking to see who can be centerfield

    Quote Originally Posted by Falls City Beer View Post
    The Reds need to operate under the assumption that NONE of those three will likely turn into top of the rotation starters, and move forward accordingly. All three of the young men jojo mentioned appear longshots to be league average starters, much less the top notch arms the Reds actually need.

    And I think Arroyo will go postnuclear next season.

    I think it's time to go big time ballsy and turn Bailey and Bruce into two MLB starters (hunt and peck for a couple more Burtons--Cueto?) and make a run at a pennant the next couple of years while Harang is still under contract.

    This timidity is killing this franchise. And me.
    I agree that you always have to allow for the very real possibility that your pitching prospects might fail. Obviously it doesn't mean that they all will, but teams should know better than to bank on help from 22-year-old pitchers.

    As for whether they're longshots or not, who knows? I suppose it's fair to argue that all pitching prospects are longshots to an extent. Something's up with Bailey. It could be physical. It could be mental. Main thing is something's up. He's still got to learn to control the strikezone. That's to be expected a lot of times with 21-year-old kids. Cueto's got uncanny control, which makes him real interesting, though I'm guessing, given his size, that he's going to need to mature physically before you ask him to throw 200 major league innings in anger. Maloney, Fisher and Lecure have had the benefit of not having been brought along at ridiculously young ages. Maybe one pans out. Maybe not. Like you said, I wouldn't be banking on it.

    Arroyo's having a solid season. His numbers aren't gaudy, but that's partially a function of where he pitches. He'd probably be having a good season, but for some idiot management back in May and the pathetic defense behind him. I expect him to be a solid citizen for the next few years.

    I agree with you that the Reds need to push the envelope. I wouldn't put Jay Bruce on the auction block, though if he netted a suitably huge return I'd at least understand the impulse for peddling him.
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  3. #197
    Five Tool Fool jojo's Avatar
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    Re: Looking to see who can be centerfield

    Bruce should be considered untouchable.

    It has nothing to do with being drunk on prospect juice.
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

  4. #198
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    Re: Looking to see who can be centerfield

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    Yeah, that didn't answer my question. 8 months ago you wanted to trade Bailey for Jennings. Even if Jennings had been healthy the Astros would still suck and he'd still be a free agent.

    Sp who do you want to trade him for now? Name a name or two.

    If trading Bailey can fix our pitching problems, or at least help us big time in that regard, then I'm all for it. You just haven't even begun to explain in any detail how getting your PTBNL is actually go do that.

    Again, trading away a potential great future is fine if it gets you a really good present. However, if it just gets you a mediocre present, all you've done is robbed yourself of the chance for greatness, while securing a slightly less crappy present.

    I'd include Bruce in a package to get Santana.

    If Pittsburgh's new GM is a fool like Littlefield, I'd aim for Snell with Bailey. Would Atlanta be interested in Bailey for Hudson? Bailey and a bat for Garza?

    The other choice of course is to sit and wait. Which seems to be the prevailing wisdom. That's fine--but don't be surprised if that 90% unlikelihood comes and swallows Homer's career and the Reds get nothing out of the bargain. If I'm playing the odds, that's what I'm betting on if the Reds don't move him.

  5. #199
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    Re: Looking to see who can be centerfield

    Quote Originally Posted by Falls City Beer View Post
    The other choice of course is to sit and wait. Which seems to be the prevailing wisdom.
    Oh come on now. There are other choices. Off the top of my head, David Aardsma, Ervin Santana, Dontrelle Willis. I'm not propping any one of these but you can get more creative than offering up your best prospects for name players just to prove a point.
    The widow is gathering nettles for her children's dinner; a perfumed seigneur, delicately lounging in the Oeil de Boeuf, hath an alchemy whereby he will extract the third nettle and call it rent. ~ Carlyle

  6. #200
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    Re: Looking to see who can be centerfield

    Quote Originally Posted by Falls City Beer View Post
    I'd include Bruce in a package to get Santana.

    If Pittsburgh's new GM is a fool like Littlefield, I'd aim for Snell with Bailey. Would Atlanta be interested in Bailey for Hudson? Bailey and a bat for Garza?

    The other choice of course is to sit and wait. Which seems to be the prevailing wisdom. That's fine--but don't be surprised if that 90% unlikelihood comes and swallows Homer's career and the Reds get nothing out of the bargain. If I'm playing the odds, that's what I'm betting on if the Reds don't move him.
    Interesting. I don't know if I'd trade Bruce.

    But I'd try Homer for James Shields before Ian Snell.
    "Bring on Rod Stupid!"

  7. #201
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    Re: Looking to see who can be centerfield

    Quote Originally Posted by M2 View Post
    I get that you've been impressed, but the objective data doesn't support your conclusion. I'll put it this way, if I had a "meh" reaction to Hamilton and the team defense, but the objective data showed they were doing pretty well, I'd start looking for what I was missing. Does the player get better jumps than I thought? What's working in the team dynamic that I hadn't noticed?

    I firmly believe in using a pragmatic approach to baseball. The game tells you what's working and what isn't. Hamilton's hasn't been working out all that well in CF so far. He's passable, but that's about it. That's not a slam on him, it's what he's done. I don't expect more from what I've seen. Obviously you do, but how do you jibe your opinion with what's taken place on the field so far? Does rustiness cover it? I suppose it could, but the way it would manifest itself is inconsistent jumps and routes. I haven't seen a ton of that with Hamilton. He's not sloppy. He looks technically sound to me, not showing signs of significant rust. The short coming I've noticed is he just doesn't get there. He starts at the right time, he takes the right route, but he doesn't get there. My take has been that Hamilton's got diesel speed. His top end is fine, but it takes a little longer for him to reach top end.

    Your better CFs, at least the ones I've always considered the better CFs, have that instantaneous drag racer acceleration. They get up to speed quickly. Top RFs I've seen - Evans, Winfield, Walker - all had that big gear speed that Hamilton seems to have. They couldn't do the 360-degree coverage of an elite CF, but they could handle the deep stuff really well and cut off rollers before they reached the wall (and then make a strong throw back to the IF to hold the runners). Hamilton's skill set seems better adapted to what I've seen work in RF.
    Sorry I haven't gotten back to you on this for a couple days.

    I must admit, I haven't paid too much attention to Hamilton's acceleration. I'm seen him get some great jumps, but evidently the great jumps are not the the same as what you are talking about. I'll have to pay closer attention.

    I have seen some gaps shots that he hasn't got to, but they appeared to me to be plays that should have been made by the corner OF's. Again, I'll try to play closer attention.

    Also, can any one explain what the stat "RF" (range factor) is? Mathematically, I understand how to figure it. I guess I'm trying to understand the value of the stat.
    Opinions are like belly buttons. Everybody has one, and they don't want someone else's shoved into their face.

  8. #202
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    Re: Looking to see who can be centerfield

    Quote Originally Posted by MikeS21 View Post
    Sorry I haven't gotten back to you on this for a couple days.

    I must admit, I haven't paid too much attention to Hamilton's acceleration. I'm seen him get some great jumps, but evidently the great jumps are not the the same as what you are talking about. I'll have to pay closer attention.

    I have seen some gaps shots that he hasn't got to, but they appeared to me to be plays that should have been made by the corner OF's. Again, I'll try to play closer attention.

    Also, can any one explain what the stat "RF" (range factor) is? Mathematically, I understand how to figure it. I guess I'm trying to understand the value of the stat.
    RF to defensive metrics is like the AMC Pacer to the Indy 500...
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

  9. #203
    The Lineups stink. KronoRed's Avatar
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    Re: Looking to see who can be centerfield

    Quote Originally Posted by Falls City Beer View Post
    I'd include Bruce in a package to get Santana.
    So would I, I'd include Bruce in a package to get any top starter, he hasn't even swung at bat in the majors yet.

    Pitching is where it's at.
    Go Gators!

  10. #204
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    Re: Looking to see who can be centerfield

    Another point I wanted to add about trading Bailey now versus last offseason is that a bunch of his shine has been knocked off by his putrid debut following on the heels of such hype, plus his subsequent vanishing post-send-down. He'd probably net 3/4 now of what he would have netted last offseason.

    And the Reds have no one but themselves to blame for that little stunt.
    Last edited by Falls City Beer; 09-08-2007 at 11:44 AM.

  11. #205
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    Re: Looking to see who can be centerfield

    Quote Originally Posted by Falls City Beer View Post
    Another point I wanted to add about trading Bailey now versus last offseason is that a bunch of his shine has been knocked off by his putrid debut following on the heels of such hype, plus his subsequent vanishing post-send-down. He'd probably net 3/4 now of what he would have netted last offseason.

    And the Reds have no one but themselves to blame for that little stunt.
    Meanwhile, the guy FCB proposed trading Homer Bailey for last season has a 6.45 ERA this year (Jason Jennings). Good thing the Reds didn't listen to your advice. I'll take my chances with Homer Bailey. Kid has terrific stuff, he just needs to refine it a bit. He made six major league starts (two very good starts, two awful starts, and two average starts). Yeah he didn't set the world on fire but it wasn't the worst debut I've ever seen. I've said it before and I'll say it again - I think Homer Bailey is going to be a very good pitcher someday but not right now. I expect him to post an ERA in the 4.50-4.85 area next season with a pretty solid strikeout rate. 2009 is the target year when I think he'll become a top-of-the-rotation starter. Give him time.

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    Re: Looking to see who can be centerfield

    Quote Originally Posted by OnBaseMachine View Post
    Meanwhile, the guy FCB proposed trading Homer Bailey for last season has a 6.45 ERA this year (Jason Jennings). Good thing the Reds didn't listen to your advice. I'll take my chances with Homer Bailey. Kid has terrific stuff, he just needs to refine it a bit. He made six major league starts (two very good starts, two awful starts, and two average starts). Yeah he didn't set the world on fire but it wasn't the worst debut I've ever seen. I've said it before and I'll say it again - I think Homer Bailey is going to be a very good pitcher someday but not right now. I expect him to post an ERA in the 4.50-4.85 area next season with a pretty solid strikeout rate. 2009 is the target year when I think he'll become a top-of-the-rotation starter. Give him time.
    Harang and Arroyowill be gone by the time Homer's able to help. Something to keep in mind.

  13. #207
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    Re: Looking to see who can be centerfield

    Quote Originally Posted by Falls City Beer View Post
    Harang and Arroyowill be gone by the time Homer's able to help. Something to keep in mind.
    Harang and Arroyo are signed through 2010 with an option for 2011. I think Homer can be an average pitcher next season and a very good one by 2009. Throw in Johnny Cueto and this team has the makings of a solid starting staff fairly soon.

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    Re: Looking to see who can be centerfield

    In responding to just the first page, Franklin Guttierrez could be a target. He is a better center fielder than Sizemore, has a quick bat, decent power, good speed. He strikes out a lot, but is just 24. If Cleveland looks for a big bat in a corner OF, he may become available. On the pitching side, Sowers or Cliff Lee might be interesting targets as well though Lee has a contract through 09 I believe.

  15. #209
    Bread Gloves Razor Shines's Avatar
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    Re: Looking to see who can be centerfield

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post

    As for the list, I think a couple names not yet mentioned for the market come from the big 2 markets. Johnny Damon looks to be very available with Melky taking over in NY and Coco Crisp probably will be moved to make room for Ellsbury.

    Damon is signed through 2009 at $13 Million per year and its questionable whether he can play CF anymore IMO. I'd pass, but he is probably out there.
    One thing is for sure though. If we got Damon we would have an upgrade over Hamilton's arm in CF. Damon's easily got the best OF arm in baseball.

  16. #210
    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: Looking to see who can be centerfield

    Quote Originally Posted by Bill View Post
    In responding to just the first page, Franklin Guttierrez could be a target. He is a better center fielder than Sizemore, has a quick bat, decent power, good speed. He strikes out a lot, but is just 24. If Cleveland looks for a big bat in a corner OF, he may become available. On the pitching side, Sowers or Cliff Lee might be interesting targets as well though Lee has a contract through 09 I believe.
    A Guttierrez and Lee package from Cleveland would be intriguing. I doubt they would take Jr and I'd want more than that for Dunn. Good thoughts though.

    No interest is Sowers.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

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