Turn Off Ads?
Page 1 of 5 12345 LastLast
Results 1 to 15 of 67

Thread: Reds need a few good pitchers in '08

  1. #1
    Member
    Join Date
    Jan 2001
    Posts
    13,551

    Reds need a few good pitchers in '08

    In the National League, the Reds have the worst team ERA, over 5.00. The starting ERA is 4.92, 12th of 16 teams. Bullpen ERA is 5.23 -- by far the worst in the league, next teams are Philly and Houston at 4.65.

    Is there any question how the Reds get better next year? Could the problem be any clearer?

    Reds have three starting pitchers. Harang, Arroyo, Belisle. Team needs two starters.

    Reds bullpen this year has included the following four pitchers, each of whom has received considerable pitching time -- Stanton (6.02 ERA in 62 outings), Coffey (6.50 ERA in 50 outings), Saarloos (7.39 ERA in 32 appearances), Majewski (8.68 in 26 games).

    Team needs a two or three good relievers to add to Weathers, Burton and probably Coutlangus and Bray. Not that these four are all world beaters, but their numbers are within reason.

    Two starters. Two or three relievers. Through some trades, promotions, free agency, that's what the team needs. It couldn't be any clearer. Krivsky's task is as simple as that. You win this division with around 90 wins, possibly fewer.
    Last edited by Kc61; 09-12-2007 at 08:21 AM.

  2. Turn Off Ads?
  3. #2
    Redsmetz redsmetz's Avatar
    Join Date
    Feb 2006
    Location
    Winton Place
    Posts
    11,168

    Re: Reds need a few good pitchers in '08

    I think it was extraordinary when someone did some analysis of how the Reds record might be if they had two "league average" starters behind the three starters you mention and if we had a "league average" bullpen - I think they calculate a total of nine more wins. I can't remember all the math behind it, but it was jarring, to say the least.

    With regards to Majewski, someone mentioned looking at his record since he's come back in August, without the St. Louis game in which he got no one out and gave up three Earned Runs - I worked it up, his ERA since returning without that game is a half way decent 3.46 ERA. I'm not sure I would give up on either Majewski or Bray.

    Of course, none of that is meant to discount the real need for better pitchers. I think we've got a flock of good young pitchers with a load of raw talent. It's why I keep asking the question, what can we do to teach these guys to be better pitchers and kick it up a notch. History is replete with stories of guys who suddenly put it together. Yes we need help from the outside, but we've assembled guys on the current roster and in our sytem who could be the ones who put it all together.

  4. #3
    Box of Frogs edabbs44's Avatar
    Join Date
    Mar 2006
    Location
    NJ
    Posts
    16,296

    Re: Reds need a few good pitchers in '08

    Quote Originally Posted by Kc61 View Post
    In the National League, the Reds have the worst team ERA, over 5.00. The starting ERA is 4.92, 12th of 16 teams. Bullpen ERA is 5.23 -- by far the worst in the league, next teams are Philly and Houston at 4.65.

    Is there any question how the Reds get better next year? Could the problem be any clearer?

    Reds have three starting pitchers. Harang, Arroyo, Belisle. Team needs two starters.

    Reds bullpen this year has included the following four pitchers, each of whom has received considerable pitching time -- Stanton (6.02 ERA in 62 outings), Coffey (6.50 ERA in 50 outings), Saarloos (7.39 ERA in 32 appearances), Majewski (8.68 in 26 games).

    Team needs a two or three good relievers to add to Weathers, Burton and probably Coutlangus and Bray. Not that these four are all world beaters, but their numbers are within reason.

    Two starters. Two or three relievers. Through some trades, promotions, free agency, that's what the team needs. It couldn't be any simpler. Krivsky's task is as simple as that.
    He had the same task last season and obviously failed miserably.

    I'm still hoping they realize that it is a more daunting task (for whatever reason) than it appears and that they try and go towards a bit of a youth movement.

    The Reds might be a few games away from being in the NL Central race, but they are a buttload of games away from being towards the top tier of the league. That should be the goal.

    Looking towards the future (i.e. 1-2 years), building an offense around Votto, Bruce, Hamilton, Phillips and EdE isn't that bad. It's actually pretty good. I'd be looking at dumping Jr asap and either signing Dunn to an extension or getting a large return for him.

    As long as they have a plan in place, they could trot Paul Wilson out every 5th day next year and it wouldn't bother me. I don't want to see them signing 36 year old relievers and 5th starters coming off shoulder surgery to multi-year multi-million dollar contracts in the hopes of catching lightning in a bottle for that one magical season.

    This can be done right if it is done correctly, and it can be done fairly quickly. There is light at the end of the tunnel. The question is whether it can be done correctly with the ones calling the shots currently in place.

  5. #4
    Member
    Join Date
    Dec 2003
    Location
    Pook's Hill
    Posts
    1,551

    Re: Reds need a few good pitchers in '08

    Forget about trading for or signing bullpen arms. That is one strategy that Krivsky must let go.

    I know it is easier said than done, but the plan should be to acquire as many young starters as possible. The only criteria is that starter must have at least one plus pitch. Once there is an excess of quality starting pitching, the bullpen will take care of itself. I'd rather take my chances converting a struggling starter to releif than signing/trading for a career middle reliever.

  6. #5
    Redsmetz redsmetz's Avatar
    Join Date
    Feb 2006
    Location
    Winton Place
    Posts
    11,168

    Re: Reds need a few good pitchers in '08

    Quote Originally Posted by puca View Post
    Forget about trading for or signing bullpen arms. That is one strategy that Krivsky must let go.

    I know it is easier said than done, but the plan should be to acquire as many young starters as possible. The only criteria is that starter must have at least one plus pitch. Once there is an excess of quality starting pitching, the bullpen will take care of itself. I'd rather take my chances converting a struggling starter to releif than signing/trading for a career middle reliever.
    To a small degree, isn't this essentially what Krivsky has been doing since last year (with a few exceptions)? Look at the pitchers he's stockpiled since he arrived. That not all near joining AARP. In fact, not many have been older pitchers. The vast majority of the pitchers we've acquired since the off-season have been under twenty and we're seeing a few of them are gems (Burton, for example). Of the eleven pitchers currently on the Reds roster that were brought in under this regime, only two are over 30 (Guardado & Stanton). The rest? Bray, Coutlangus, McBeth, Livingston, Majewski, Saarloos, Arroyo (30, this year), Gosling and Burton.

    There's room for improvement, no question, but I think the Reds have been gathering some pitchers who can ultimately have some upside.

  7. #6
    He has the Evil Eye! flyer85's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2004
    Location
    south of the border
    Posts
    23,858

    Re: Reds need a few good pitchers in '08

    Quote Originally Posted by edabbs44 View Post
    He had the same task last season and obviously failed miserably.
    ,,, and came to the conclusion that guys like Stanton and Saarloos were solutions to the problem. I would still look to acquire Wuertz from the Cubs(he is way down their pecking order). The first order of business is to cut bait on Stanton, Guardado, Saarloos, etc. Then we'll know WK at least has a clue about how to fix the problem.
    What are you, people? On dope? - Mr Hand

  8. #7
    Let's ride BRM's Avatar
    Join Date
    May 2004
    Location
    Colorado's eastern plains
    Posts
    11,232

    Re: Reds need a few good pitchers in '08

    Quote Originally Posted by flyer85 View Post
    ,,, and came to the conclusion that guys like Stanton and Saarloos were solutions to the problem. I would still look to acquire Wuertz from the Cubs(he is way down their pecking order). The first order of business is to cut bait on Stanton, Guardado, Saarloos, etc. Then we'll know WK at least has a clue about how to fix the problem.
    I think Saarloos will be gone. The two crafty left-handers will likely be part of next year's pen though. Learn to love it!

  9. #8
    Member
    Join Date
    Jan 2001
    Posts
    13,551

    Re: Reds need a few good pitchers in '08

    I disagree with those who are totally devoted to young pitching prospects. You need a mixture. You can't win running a tryout camp for minor league prospects -- they tend to fail more often than they succeed. You also can't win with too many veterans on the downside. And the Reds can't afford all of its pitchers to be in their "prime". A good mixture is needed.

    In terms of pitching, last off-season was, well, disappointing. The Reds obviously needed another good starter and didn't get one. The bullpen was weak yet the team went for guys like Stanton and Saarloos. Krivsky said at the Winter Meetings that he was happy with Milton and Lohse. It appears from Castellini's statements that he thought the team wasn't ready to spend on pitching yet.

    I'm all in favor of the long term, but with free agency, arbitration and the like even long-term thinking in baseball is the next couple of years. The Reds should keep its best prospects and promote them properly. But they also need to get help from the outside.

    There is no reason the Reds can't compete next year. They have a strong offense and an improved defense. They need to spend wisely, promote wisely, trade wisely. But they have to aggressively pursue some good pitchers this off-season. Hoping that Bailey and McBeth will be ready isn't enough. And I agree that they need to cut bait with some pitchers who haven't panned out.
    Last edited by Kc61; 09-12-2007 at 10:02 AM.

  10. #9
    On the brink wolfboy's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2002
    Location
    is everything
    Posts
    2,682

    Re: Reds need a few good pitchers in '08

    Quote Originally Posted by edabbs44 View Post
    He had the same task last season and obviously failed miserably.
    I'm not ready to say he failed miserably. I think it's too much to say that any GM should be able to rebuild an entire pitching staff in one offseason. Is it realistic to say that Krivsky should have been able to bring in two league average starters and half (or more) of a league average bullpen? If that was the task, then it was doomed from the beginning.

  11. #10
    Vampire Weekend @Bernie's camisadelgolf's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2004
    Location
    Cincinnati, OH
    Posts
    11,434

    Re: Reds need a few good pitchers in '08

    They say this year's free agent class of pitchers will be worse than last year's. Seven of the 24 free agent starting pitchers from last year are performing average or better, and the cheapest one was Jason Marquis. Here is who was available last year:
    Code:
    CONTRACT	 PLAYER			PERFORMANCE
    minor league     Brandon Claussen	terribly in AAA
    3 yr $ 1,920,000 Yoslan Herrera		underwhelmingly in AA
    minor league     Runelvys Hernandez	underwhelmingly in AAA
    3 yr $47,000,000 Jason Schmidt		terribly for Dodgers
    3 yr $24,500,000 Adam Eaton		terribly for Phillies
    5 yr $20,000,000 Kei Igawa		terribly for Yankees
    1 yr $   500,000 Jerome Williams	disastrously for Nationals
    minor league     Victor Zambrano	disastrously for Orioles
    1 yr $ 4,000,000 Kip Wells		poorly for Cardinals
    1 yr $ 3,100,000 Ramon Ortiz		poorly for Twins and Rockies
    1 yr $ 1,500,000 Tomo Ohka		poorly for Blue Jays
    1 yr $ 1,000,000 Claudio Vargas		poorly for Brewers
    1 yr $   380,000 Russ Ortiz		poorly for Giants
    4 yr $42,000,000 Jeff Suppan		below average for Brewers
    2 yr $12,500,000 Woody Williams		below average for Astros
    1 yr $ 7,500,000 Randy Wolf		below average for Dodgers
    1 yr $ 4,000,000 Joel Pineiro		below average for Red Sox and Cardinals
    7 yr$126,000,000 Barry Zito		average in a pitcher's ball park for Giants
    6 yr$103,111,111 Daisuke Matsuzaka	average for Red Sox
    3 yr $21,000,000 Jason Marquis		slighly above average for Cubs
    1 yr $16,000,000 Andy Pettitte		above average for Astros
    1 yr $10,000,000 Greg Maddux		above average in a pitcher's ballpark for Padres
    5 yr $55,000,000 Gil Meche		career year (and a losing record) for Royals
    4 yr $40,000,000 Ted Lilly		career year for Cubs

  12. #11
    Member
    Join Date
    Jan 2001
    Posts
    13,551

    Re: Reds need a few good pitchers in '08

    Quote Originally Posted by wolfboy View Post
    I'm not ready to say he failed miserably. I think it's too much to say that any GM should be able to rebuild an entire pitching staff in one offseason. Is it realistic to say that Krivsky should have been able to bring in two league average starters and half (or more) of a league average bullpen? If that was the task, then it was doomed from the beginning.
    I'm not a Krivsky basher, but as I recall he brought in one effective pitcher last off-season -- Burton -- from the outside.

    Am I missing anyone? And I'm talking major leagues.

  13. #12
    Red's fan mbgrayson's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2005
    Location
    Montana
    Posts
    2,052

    Re: Reds need a few good pitchers in '08

    Some minor league possibilities:
    1. Homer Bailey, Righty, age 21, AAA and MLB in 2007, 3.07 ERA, 7.88 k/9 rate, .204 BAA in 67 AAA innings, 6.99 ERA, 4.77 K/9 rate and .282 BAA in 28 MLB innings.
    2. Bobby Livingston, Lefty, age 25, pitched in AAA and MLB in 2007, 3.80 ERA, 5.2 k/9 rate, and .299 BAA in AAA, 5.27 ERA, 4.31 K/9 and .325 BAA in 56 MLB innings.
    3. Johnny Cueto, righty, age 21, pitched in high A, AA, and AAA in 2007, abt. 3.10 overall ERA, 2.05 ERA, 8.59 K/9 rate, .259 BAA in 22 AAA innings.
    4. Matthew Maloney, Lefty, age 23, pitched in AA & AAA in 2007, abt. 3.50 overall ERA, .169 BAA and 12.17 k/9 rate in 17 AAA innings.
    5. Ramon Ramirez, Righty, age 24, pitched in high A, AA, and AAA in 2007, abt. 4.30 overall ERA, 0.00 ERA, 9.82 K/9 rate, .149 BAA in 15 AAA innings.

    Of course we also have Elizardo Ramirez, Tom Shearn, Phil Dumatrait, Mike Gosling, and other prospects (suspects really), available.

    I would think if Homer can come back from his injury, we would have a solid #4 starter. One of these other guys might be a serviciable #5. Certainly not ideal, but Cueto will be very good by 2009.

    Did you know that Bobby Livingston pitched the 5th most MLB innings of any current Red this year?
    Last edited by mbgrayson; 09-12-2007 at 10:56 AM.
    __________________
    “This one was a perfect one. I don’t know if I can find a better one, better timing. He [Price] really said some great things there. It really encouraged us to go back and do what we do. … I didn’t know he could speak like that.” Brayan Pena 5/21/14

  14. #13
    Greatness In The Making RedLegSuperStar's Avatar
    Join Date
    Feb 2005
    Location
    Cincinnati, Ohio
    Posts
    4,078

    Re: Reds need a few good pitchers in '08

    I'm not sure if Belisle should be penciled in to the 2008 rotation. The free agent core isn't great but some could be a decent upgrade. Seeking a starter through trade would be welcomed. Arroyo has got to return to his 06 form. I would look for 2 starters outside of the organization whether through trade or free agency and let Belisle, Bailey, Cueto, Maloney, Ramirez, and Shearn battle it out for the 5th spot in spring trainging.
    "I could watch video of Griffey swinging all day. It's like baseball porn." - C. Trent Rosecrans


    2008 Reds Record When I Attend: 9W - 5L

    2009 Reds Record When I Attend: 1W - 2L

    2010 Reds Record When I Attend: 1W - 0L

    2011 Reds Record When I Attend: 0W - 1L

  15. #14
    Member paulrichjr's Avatar
    Join Date
    Mar 2003
    Location
    Savannah, TN
    Posts
    2,886

    Re: Reds need a few good pitchers in '08

    Who should Krivs target in the free agent market? I just don't see anyone that will make a difference. I think that this team will only win with pitching coming up through the minors. It appears to me that teams have wised up and started giving their good players good contracts before they hit free agency. This has lead to free agency fast becoming irrevelent. Deals like the Reds gave to Arroyo and Harang are examples of this.
    Tim McCarver: Baseball Quotes
    I remember one time going out to the mound to talk with Bob Gibson. He told me to get back behind the batter, that the only thing I knew about pitching was that it was hard to hit.

  16. #15
    Member
    Join Date
    Mar 2002
    Location
    Calgary, Alberta, aka, the most prosperous city in the world.
    Posts
    10,639

    Re: Reds need a few good pitchers in '08

    Quote Originally Posted by RedLegSuperStar View Post
    I'm not sure if Belisle should be penciled in to the 2008 rotation. The free agent core isn't great but some could be a decent upgrade. Seeking a starter through trade would be welcomed. Arroyo has got to return to his 06 form. I would look for 2 starters outside of the organization whether through trade or free agency and let Belisle, Bailey, Cueto, Maloney, Ramirez, and Shearn battle it out for the 5th spot in spring trainging.

    Belisle has a DIPS ERA of 4.69 this year, which puts him head and shoulders above any internal option we currently have not named Bailey and Cueto. He should likely be better next season than this.

    I can't imagine that we will find 3 starters better than him for next year.


Turn Off Ads?

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •  

Board Moderators may, at their discretion and judgment, delete and/or edit any messages that violate any of the following guidelines: 1. Explicit references to alleged illegal or unlawful acts. 2. Graphic sexual descriptions. 3. Racial or ethnic slurs. 4. Use of edgy language (including masked profanity). 5. Direct personal attacks, flames, fights, trolling, baiting, name-calling, general nuisance, excessive player criticism or anything along those lines. 6. Posting spam. 7. Each person may have only one user account. It is fine to be critical here - that's what this board is for. But let's not beat a subject or a player to death, please.

Thank you, and most importantly, enjoy yourselves!


RedsZone.com is a privately owned website and is not affiliated with the Cincinnati Reds or Major League Baseball


Contact us: Boss | GIK | BCubb2003 | dabvu2498 | Gallen5862 | LexRedsFan | Plus Plus | RedlegJake | redsfan1995 | The Operator | Tommyjohn25