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Thread: Home/Road Splits

  1. #1
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Home/Road Splits

    2007 Reds Offense
    Home: 5.26 R/G, .268/.340/.463, 41/50 SB
    Road: 4.59 R/G, .266/.331/.418, 47/69 SB

    2007 Reds Pitching
    Home: 5.66 R/G, 4.96 ERA .272/.334/.454, .298 BABIP
    Road: 5.21 R/G, 5.05 ERA, .296/.358/.464, .334 BABIP

    Code:
    	|  RS	|  RA
    --------|-------|-------
    Home	|  389	|  402	
    --------|-------|-------
    Road	|  326	|  370
    Some quick observations:
    - Our hitting varies more than our pitching
    - Our pitching has been unlucky on the road in terms of BABIP, even though the defense has been better in terms of unearned runs
    - We have a much higher SB% at home.
    - When you look at the table above, the are two really basic problems with us. We allow too many runs everywhere and we don't score enough runs on the road.
    Last edited by RedsManRick; 09-13-2007 at 06:32 PM.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

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  3. #2
    Danger is my business! oneupper's Avatar
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    Re: Home/Road Splits

    I don't know why SB% would be park-dependant. It probably isn't (unless there is an UMP factor).

    Otherwise, you had some hitters with nasty Home/Away splits (OPS):

    Hatteberg 1.007/.718
    Freel .729/.563
    Conine .894/.614
    Ross .733/.538

    BTW....none of these guys are playing much anymore...hint, hint.

    Some other hitters who were better at GABP

    Dunn .974/.903
    Griff .947/.853
    EdE .802/.756
    Hamilton .989/.861

    and you've had a few road warriors

    Phillips .811/.850 (this was a surprise for me)
    Hopper .720/.771
    Gonzo .752/.851 (Ah...Pittsburgh).

    Team OPS

    Home .803 Away .749
    "A person is smart. People are dumb, panicky, dangerous animals and you know it."

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    Danger is my business! oneupper's Avatar
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    Re: Home/Road Splits

    I also find it interesting that our pitchers have a better ERA at home than on the road.
    (yet the RPG is much higher at home...bad defense?)
    "A person is smart. People are dumb, panicky, dangerous animals and you know it."

    http://dalmady.blogspot.com

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    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: Home/Road Splits

    Re: the stolen base percentage, I'm pretty sure that difference falls within the scope of random variation. That said, if there really was something to it, my guess is that it's a strategy issue, being more aggressive on the road, or something to that effect.

    What's interesting in the OPS difference is that, not surprisingly, it's almost all in SLG.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

  6. #5
    Danger is my business! oneupper's Avatar
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    Re: Home/Road Splits

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    Re: the stolen base percentage, I'm pretty sure that difference falls within the scope of random variation. That said, if there really was something to it, my guess is that it's a strategy issue, being more aggressive on the road, or something to that effect.

    What's interesting in the OPS difference is that, not surprisingly, it's almost all in SLG.
    You figure the park is going to help a lot of occasional power guys, Hatteberg would be the perfect example.

    Hatte had a HUGE Home/Away split in 2006 also.
    (as did Ross).

    Guys like Hat/Ross/Freel have learned that they can maybe yank one out at GABP, whereas on the road, they wouldn't even try.

    If you needed another reason to replace Hatteberg with Votto...there it is.


    Another interesting tidbit. Dunn has 19 HRs at home this year...and 19 on the road.
    "A person is smart. People are dumb, panicky, dangerous animals and you know it."

    http://dalmady.blogspot.com

  7. #6
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: Home/Road Splits

    I would be very concerned with a guy like Freel or Ross is that it adversely affects his approach. Hatteberg just alternates between himself and a park-aided self.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

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    Re: Home/Road Splits

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    Our pitching has been unlucky on the road in terms of BABIP, even though the defense has been better in terms of unearned runs
    Now that turf isn't an issue, I think changing parks only affects outfield defense. That may be why the big BABIP.
    The widow is gathering nettles for her children's dinner; a perfumed seigneur, delicately lounging in the Oeil de Boeuf, hath an alchemy whereby he will extract the third nettle and call it rent. ~ Carlyle

  9. #8
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: Home/Road Splits

    Quote Originally Posted by Rojo View Post
    Now that turf isn't an issue, I think changing parks only affects outfield defense. That may be why the big BABIP.
    I was thinking something similar. Range issues in the outfield won't show up in error totals (or unearned runs) but will definitely show up in the total runs allowed column. This this OF defense to Pecto and it gets really ugly.

    Balls that would've landed a row deep at GABP -- and thus excluded from BABIP -- suddenly drop on the warning track and become doubles and triples. In the SLG and run totals it's a net positive to leave GABP, but we don't gain as much as we should.

    It's an interesting thing to consider that leaving GABP makes a non-HR batted ball in the field of play against Reds pitching 10% more likely to become a hit. There might be some sample size issues, but it would be interesting to examine our RA versus LA, SD, SF, and NYM.
    Last edited by RedsManRick; 09-14-2007 at 05:47 PM.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.


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