Becuase maybe the current guys who have those jobs have only been around the past year or two? I am just guessing here, because I haven't really followed who the Reds scouts are.... maybe I should start doing that though.Originally Posted by Old NDN
That would be the proper path to a proper awnser.
-LTlabnerIf you can't build a winning team with that core a fire-sale isn't the solution. Selling the franchise, moving them to Nashville and converting GABP into a used car lot is.
A lot of this thread suggests that the REDS would be better off if they would draft more college pitchers instead of High School Pitchers, while pointing out specifically only high to medium 1st Round draft picks.
There might be a bias in the current REDS' front office against drafting College Pitchers or College anything with 1st Round or Supplemental 1st Round picks.
I would be curious to find out if they have a prejudice against doing that, and what their reasoning might be.
As far as I understand, College pitchers have done better than High School Pitchers who have been chosen in the 1st Round over the last 15 years.
It's really a good point.
Rob Neyer: "Any writer who says he'd be a better manager than the worst manager is either 1) lying (i.e. 'using poetic license') or 2) patently delusional. Which isn't to say managers don't do stupid things that you or I wouldn't."
I didn't examine the 1st rounders, but just looking at the league leaders showing on MLB.com, the vast majority of those pitchers were either drafted out of high school or developed internationally.
High School: Beckett, Peavy, Kazmir, Sabathia, Penny, Smoltz
International: Wang, Carmona, Santana, Escobar
College: Chris Young (Princeton), Webb (UK)
Our own top two pitchers split: Harang (SD State), Arroyo (High School).
I did go back and look at our own first rounders and all of the pitchers we took out of college made it to the big leagues and some had careers more than just a few years.
Those pitchers are Ryan Wagner, Brett Tomko, CJ Nitkowski, Jack Armstrong & Pat Pacillo.
That said, our track record over the last ten plus years of drafting high school pitchers (we'll reserve judgment on Homer) has been abysmal.
High School pitching and college pitching has been about 3% off of each other in terms of success rate in the top rounds. It is nowhere near the difference that some make it out to be.
College pitchers aren't a panacea. The main difference between college pitchers and high school arms is that the top rated college pitchers pan out quite a bit better than the top rated high school arms.
If you go back over the top half of the first round for the past 20 years, the teams that have drafted college arms have gotten immensely better returns than those who've drafted high school arms.
In the Reds' case, they've had two highly-rated college arms - Weaver and Lincecum - fall into their laps in recent years only to pass on them like they were hot potatoes. These were the two near instantly ready pitchers in recent drafts. The current Reds regime needs to recognize the opportunities missed not for the sake of recrimination, but for the purpose of seizing those opportunities in future drafts. There wasn't really anybody like that when the Reds picked in the 2007 draft, the 2005 draft or the 2003 draft. In the 2002 draft, there wasn't an immediate payback college arm on the board, princeton convinced me on Jeff Francis, but you'd get no complaint from me had the team drafted Scott Kazmir, rated as the top overall arm in the draft that season.
So it's really been those top 10 picks where the Reds need to look into their strategy. Homer Bailey and Drew Stubbs could still turn into perfectly good players, the real question is whether the franchise could do a better job of identifying critical opportunities to use the draft as a method of player acquisition instead of as the entry point to the development system. Can you spot 'em? Can you sign 'em?
I'm not a system player. I am a system.
Following those lines, the REDS should look seriously, and especially since he'll be in their own backyard, at a University of Michigan pitcher who has a very good chance of finishing 3 years of College next Spring/Summer while being a top-10 pick. He's ready right now, but he wanted to stay in school one more year. He'll only be that much more ready. I forgot his name. I'm sure some of you know who I'm talking about. In the Super Regionals this year, he came within one out of no-hitting the 2-time defending Champion Oregon State Beavers. He was totally dominant. He's also a good hitter.
Last edited by Eric_Davis; 09-19-2007 at 01:59 AM.
Rob Neyer: "Any writer who says he'd be a better manager than the worst manager is either 1) lying (i.e. 'using poetic license') or 2) patently delusional. Which isn't to say managers don't do stupid things that you or I wouldn't."
Here is a description of him "before" he went to Michigan:
Name: Zach Putnam
Height/Weight: 6-2 / 205
Date of Birth:
School: Pioneer HS (MI)
Brewerfan.net Rank: 33
Polished all-around player on the mound, at the plate and in the field. Talented two-way star that has done everything from hitting for average and power, stealing bases and pitching in big games for Pioneer High School in Ann Arbor Michigan. His picture perfect mechanics and solid repertoire make him more appealing as a high pick on the mound. He throws regularly in the upper 80s to low 90s, and has touched 94 on radar guns. His fastball also shows great, late sinking movement, as does his changeup. He also throws a good curveball, and mixes in all three pitches very well, commanding the strike zone. He could be comparable to another prep pitcher by the name of Zach, Zach Greinke, who also was hailed for his ability to throw strikes and overall athletic talent. Putnam has decided to stay close to home for college, committing to the University of Michigan.
What does Baseball America have to say about Zach Putnam right now? Before his Freshman season began, BA had him ranked as the 4th best College Freshman. Before his Sophomore season began, they had him ranked as the 16th best College sophomore. But, he really excelled as a pitcher and 1st Baseman this year, and his new ranking should be pretty high going into this season. The last ranking I could find from BA on him was Feb 2nd, 2007, before the Baseball season began this year.
Last edited by Eric_Davis; 09-19-2007 at 02:11 AM.
Rob Neyer: "Any writer who says he'd be a better manager than the worst manager is either 1) lying (i.e. 'using poetic license') or 2) patently delusional. Which isn't to say managers don't do stupid things that you or I wouldn't."
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