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Thread: Five Questions To Answer Going Into The Offseason

  1. #1
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    Five Questions To Answer Going Into The Offseason

    Five questions I have as the Reds wind down the season and prepare for what should be an active offseason:

    1. Pete Mackanin.
    Do you sign him to a one-year deal considering how the club played the second half of the season? Or do you go out and hire a veteran manager with a history of success.

    2. Keppinger or Gonzalez.
    Who should be the everyday shortstop next season?

    3. Adam Dunn.
    Do you pick up his option and trade him (see Gary Sheffield deal last year with the Yankees--Tigers) for pitching help? And if you trade him can they replace the lost offensive production he generates by possibly having Josh Hamilton as the everyday LF?

    4. Jared Burton.
    Do you reverse roles next season and make him the closer and Weathers the setup man?

    5. Wayne Krivsky.
    This will be Krivsky's third offseason. If his moves this offseason doesn't turn the club around and have them finish above .500 in 2008, should he be shown the door?
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    breath westofyou's Avatar
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    Re: Five Questions To Answer Going Into The Offseason

    It's only Krivsky's 2nd off season, he was hired in February 2006

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    Re: Five Questions To Answer Going Into The Offseason

    Quote Originally Posted by Krusty View Post
    Five questions I have as the Reds wind down the season and prepare for what should be an active offseason:

    1. Pete Mackanin.
    Do you sign him to a one-year deal considering how the club played the second half of the season? Or do you go out and hire a veteran manager with a history of success.

    2. Keppinger or Gonzalez.
    Who should be the everyday shortstop next season?

    3. Adam Dunn.
    Do you pick up his option and trade him (see Gary Sheffield deal last year with the Yankees--Tigers) for pitching help? And if you trade him can they replace the lost offensive production he generates by possibly having Josh Hamilton as the everyday LF?

    4. Jared Burton.
    Do you reverse roles next season and make him the closer and Weathers the setup man?

    5. Wayne Krivsky.
    This will be Krivsky's third offseason. If his moves this offseason doesn't turn the club around and have them finish above .500 in 2008, should he be shown the door?

    1. I try to go after someone like LaRussa or someone with a good track record that the players will play hard for and other teams respect. If no one fits the bill, I have no problems re-signing Mackanin to a 1 year contract. If it was good enough for Walter Alston, it should be good enough for most managers.

    2. Gonzo and ideally Keppinger is your top utility guy. However Castro fouls that scenario up.

    3. You pick up his option. You don't actively shop him but if someone offers you something special, you have to listen if only to gauge his value. Of course since he has a no-trade clause it's ultimately up to him. And you don't put Hamilton in LF. You put Jr. there.

    4. Keep things the way they are but try to trade Weathers and when he is traded, you put Burton in that role.

    5. It's really his 2nd offseason since he really didn't get started until right before ST after he was hired. I'm hesitant to have a revolving door of GMs here since when you bring a new guy in, you have a new philosophy and you bring in new people and it's essentially a wasted season.
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    Waitin til next year bucksfan2's Avatar
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    Re: Five Questions To Answer Going Into The Offseason

    1. NO. You give him a chance to interview but you can not extend him without interviewing other candidates.

    2. I lean towards Keppy but both will be back next season. I think that Gonzo is going to have some trade value because he has a very friendly contract.

    3. Absolutly. You have to pick up Dunn and then decide which direction to go. It would be a shame to see Dunn sent packing so Jr. could finish as a red.

    4. No. Burton has to earn it. Remember Hot Todd Coffey? If he continues to pitch well you give him the opportunity but by no means do you just hand him the job.

    5. I give him until the end of next season and then look at the club. You never know what both him and Cast agreed to when Krivsky was hired.

    Other questions I would ask would be

    What to do with bad contracts?
    Freel, Coffey, and Stanton all have contracts for next year and have shown that they can not produce better that cheaper, younger replacements.

    Jay Bruce and Cueto?
    How do you handle these guys. The reds have brought their prospects along at a slow pace. You can't argue with the impact that Keppy and Votto have had in their time in the bigs. You also don't know if their extended time in AAA actually helped their development.

    What do you do about the log jams?
    Encarnacion, Keppinger, Freel, Gonzo, Phillips, Cantu, Votto, Lopez, and Hatty all play infield and all have shown that they all have their pros and cons. In the outfield you have Dunn, Hamilton, Griffey, Hopper, Ellison?, and Freel who each bring in an individual skill set. Who do you keep, who do you trade, who do you send to AAA.

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    Re: Five Questions To Answer Going Into The Offseason

    So the Reds have an 8th inning, 9th inning combo that seems to be working pretty well. Let's just switch guys around, maybe we can mess it up!

    Seriously, unless they get a better reliever in the off-season, the Reds should go into next year with the current Burton/Weathers combo. They will also need a couple of other late inning relievers because these guys can't pitch every day. Bray is a possibility although his numbers fell off late in the season. Guardado, if healthy and signable. A new guy (righty) would help too.

    If Weathers falls off next year, then Burton should be given the full shot at closer. But he is young and I think Reds should first let him become established in the 8th inning for awhile.

    Guys to shop: Griffey, Gonzo, Freel, Stanton, Coffey.

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    Re: Five Questions To Answer Going Into The Offseason

    Contracts to dump: Griffey, Gonzo, Freel, Stanton, Coffey.
    I fixed that for you.

    Though I'll say this, Keppinger ain't the answer at SS

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    Re: Five Questions To Answer Going Into The Offseason

    Quote Originally Posted by Krusty View Post
    Five questions I have as the Reds wind down the season and prepare for what should be an active offseason:

    1. Pete Mackanin.
    Do you sign him to a one-year deal considering how the club played the second half of the season? Or do you go out and hire a veteran manager with a history of success.
    Hire someone with a track record of success. The Reds' second half success could be due to simple normalization after their awful first half.

    2. Keppinger or Gonzalez.
    Who should be the everyday shortstop next season?
    Do your best to trade Gonzalez (Toronto?). His defense is overrated.

    I'd try to make a separate deal for one of the Angels' SS prospects -- they have so many they don't know what to do with them.

    3. Adam Dunn.
    Do you pick up his option and trade him (see Gary Sheffield deal last year with the Yankees--Tigers) for pitching help? And if you trade him can they replace the lost offensive production he generates by possibly having Josh Hamilton as the everyday LF?
    You definitely pick up his option -- it would be lunacy to let him go for a draft pick.

    As with everyone, you shop him around and see what kind of return he would bring.

    4. Jared Burton.
    Do you reverse roles next season and make him the closer and Weathers the setup man?
    You bring in more arms (Wuertz, etc.) and let them compete. Weathers' ego won't be bruised.

    5. Wayne Krivsky.
    This will be Krivsky's third offseason. If his moves this offseason doesn't turn the club around and have them finish above .500 in 2008, should he be shown the door?
    Two words: Bull Pen.

    If Krivsky is finally able to bring in some real bullpen help, I think the W/L record will sort itself out. If the Reds' 2008 bullpen isn't at least three-quarters of an ERA point better than the 2007 version, Krivsky should be searching the Help Wanted section of the Minneapolis Star Tribune.
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    Re: Five Questions To Answer Going Into The Offseason

    ....I think most of those questions are answered.
    #1 The reds are going to interview candidates. There's no rush to appoint a manager. They will try and match the guy to the job. Pete could be part of that.

    #2 You trade your excess for pitching. After you've done that, you worry about finding slots for your talent.

    #3 Dunn's coming back.

    #4 You don't make ANY promises to relief pitchers based on 40 innings.

    #5 Krivsky isn't going anywhere any time soon. The gutting of the minor league department tells us that.

    The big question the reds have during the offseason is how to convert the excess positional hitting talent the reds have into pitching. The organization needs three starting pitchers and probably two decent arms that can be slotted in relief. More would be good. Some of those guys can be Bobby Livingston/Jared Burton type pickups, but some of them HAVE to be of the quality that you can plug them right onto the 25 man roster and not be embarressed.
    "Even a bad day at the ballpark beats the snot out of most other good days. I'll take my scorecard and pencil and beer and hot dog and rage at the dips and cheer at the highs, but I'm not ever going to stop loving this game and this team and nobody will ever take that away from me." Roy Tucker October 2010

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    Re: Five Questions To Answer Going Into The Offseason

    Quote Originally Posted by Krusty View Post
    1. Pete Mackanin.
    Do you sign him to a one-year deal considering how the club played the second half of the season? Or do you go out and hire a veteran manager with a history of success.
    I go through the full interview process, but likely end up retaining Petey Mac. In baseball, there are no managers who truly make significant positive differences, only ones who screw things up through poor strategic decision making or clubhouse mismanagement. So far, Mac seems to keep people happy and motivated and doesn't screw up many decisions on the field. Sure, I'd love to have Terry Francona, or some other like minded manager. But that sort of manager would only be hired by that sort of ownership/management team, which we decidedly do not have. For God's sake, no Tony LaRussa or Joe (Destroyer of Young Arms) Girardi, please!

    Quote Originally Posted by Krusty View Post
    2. Keppinger or Gonzalez.
    Who should be the everyday shortstop next season?
    If I can deal Gonzalez for something of substance, I do. But I don't just ditch him for the sake of it. Their offensive output is likely similar and I don't think his defense is worth 10.5MM more than Keppinger over the next 2 years. With Freel back, we don't need Keppinger as a MI backup[/quote]

    Quote Originally Posted by Krusty View Post
    3. Adam Dunn.
    Do you pick up his option and trade him (see Gary Sheffield deal last year with the Yankees--Tigers) for pitching help? And if you trade him can they replace the lost offensive production he generates by possibly having Josh Hamilton as the everyday LF?
    Yes, I pick up Dunn's option. But barring a trade offer that would be impossible to refuse (say, Broxton and Kemp), I make every effort to sign him to a 4 year, 60M deal. If he just won't sign, or wants significantly more dough, then I start shopping him. I'm worried about losing both Dunn and Junior. However, Junior needs to go after 2008, whereas Dunn should be an offensive force for a number of years yet. Move Dunn in 2008 and you have a hole in the OF in 2009, even with Hamilton and Bruce here. You simply cannot replace the production that Dunn can provide. Given the choice of Dunn/Bruce/Hamilton or XXXX/Bruce/Hamilton for 2009, I take the former. And given that Junior is the only other offensive player with a substantial contract, and that the contract will be off the books soon, the money is there to retain him.[/quote]

    Quote Originally Posted by Krusty View Post
    4. Jared Burton.
    Do you reverse roles next season and make him the closer and Weathers the setup man?
    Nope, I think the current setup is better for a variety of reasons. Firstly, you have to get through both innings anyways, so the order is less relevant than it seems. Secondly, Burton is the guy I want coming in with men on base - to use him to protect a 3 run lead is a waste. Thirdly, thinking ahead, even mediocre closers fare much better in arbitration than do top set up men. Weathers can be our closer. Burton is the fireman.

    Quote Originally Posted by Krusty View Post
    5. Wayne Krivsky.
    This will be Krivsky's (2nd) offseason. If his moves this offseason doesn't turn the club around and have them finish above .500 in 2008, should he be shown the door?
    Not necessarily - there's more to it than that. My criteria is one of improvement and direction. Is the franchise measurably stronger than it was? Do we have a growing identity of what Reds baseball is? Should we be winning more games? Wins themselves in any given year can be fickle. But there has to be a clear positive momentum.

    I'm definitely not a fan of change simply for changes' sake. If he is going to be replaced, I would hope that Castellini has a clear idea of what Krivksy did wrong, or what he didn't do right. Barring some really obvious failures, I think any GM should get a minimum of 3 full seasons before a definitive evaluation. Krivsky is tasked with directing an entire organization of 100's of employees. Significant change takes time.

    While nobody likes to hear that we're in a rebuilding phase, 5 year plan, etc, there is merit to the concept. The problem is in the execution. Done right, and you have situation like the Brewers. Done wrong, and you simply are stuck in a perpetual state of rebuilding. This will be offseason #2 and season #3 for Krivsky. It's time to start seeing the fruits of his labor.
    Last edited by RedsManRick; 09-19-2007 at 11:06 AM.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

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    Greatness In The Making RedLegSuperStar's Avatar
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    Re: Five Questions To Answer Going Into The Offseason

    Quote Originally Posted by Krusty View Post
    Five questions I have as the Reds wind down the season and prepare for what should be an active offseason:

    1. Pete Mackanin.
    Do you sign him to a one-year deal considering how the club played the second half of the season? Or do you go out and hire a veteran manager with a history of success.
    I think Mackanin has done a good job.. not great.. but good. With that said I do think you have to go with someone who has a track record. I would heavily push for La Russa or Torre (If he isn't brought back with New York). La Russa has ties with Bob Castellini and Torre has ties with Ohio with his wife being from here. I would want the Reds to bring back Mackanin in some role though.

    2. Keppinger or Gonzalez.
    Who should be the everyday shortstop next season?
    First off Gonzalez has had a decent year at the plate and has been shacky in the field. With that said I feel a lot of it has to do with his ailing son. Can you really focus on your job when you know your child is suffering? I give the job to Gonzalez. Keppinger will see playing time next year especially if La Russa is the manager. Keppinger can play 2B, SS, 3B, and OF.. so he is much like Freel.. a super sub.

    3. Adam Dunn.
    Do you pick up his option and trade him (see Gary Sheffield deal last year with the Yankees--Tigers) for pitching help? And if you trade him can they replace the lost offensive production he generates by possibly having Josh Hamilton as the everyday LF?
    At the deadline I was so for trading Dunn. Since then I've realized the offensive numbers this team has is due to Dunn. His strikeouts are down from a year ago.. though 162 is nothing to be ranting and raving about. Other stats that are up from a year ago; Average, Hits, Runs, Doubles, Triples, RBI's, Total Bases, Stolen Bases, OBP., SLG., and OPS. with still 11 games to be played. Josh Hamilton still starts I have to believe for the 2008 Reds and during Spring Training the Reds will get a look at Jay Bruce. However I think if you are the Reds you have to pick up the 2.5 million dollar raise to Dunn. Bruce will start in AAA.. if he continues to put up the monster numbers he put up in '07 then I think you look for offers for Dunn. The start of '08 outfield should consist of Dunn in LF, Hamilton in CF, Griffey in RF, and Freel and Hopper on the bench.

    4. Jared Burton.
    Do you reverse roles next season and make him the closer and Weathers the setup man?
    Weathers has been the most consistent arm in the pen and has done it all year. Weathers is the closer for next year at least until the deadline. Burton should see some save chances though both the remainder of this season, spring training, and next season.

    5. Wayne Krivsky.
    This will be Krivsky's third offseason. If his moves this offseason doesn't turn the club around and have them finish above .500 in 2008, should he be shown the door?
    If the rumors are true and Walt Jockerty is leaving St. Louis.. I think you have to try to bring in both La Russa and Jockerty. Krivsky has done well with trading.. just his free agent signings and bullpen reconstruction have not went so well. If Jockerty isn't brought in to start 2008 and Krivsky is the GM and finishes above .500 (which would be close to the top of this division).. I might bring him back for a year or two. Now if it's at .500 or below then I think you have to weight my options and see what is available.
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  12. #11
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    Re: Five Questions To Answer Going Into The Offseason

    Quote Originally Posted by Krusty View Post
    1. Pete Mackanin.
    Do you sign him to a one-year deal considering how the club played the second half of the season? Or do you go out and hire a veteran manager with a history of success.
    I like the way Pete seems to be handling the club and it _seems_ that the players also like it. I make him part of the people interviewed for the job next year.

    Actually, I think the field manager is the least of the organization's problems. Fix the scouting and minor league developmental staff, post haste.

    2. Keppinger or Gonzalez.
    Who should be the everyday shortstop next season?
    Gonzales.

    I love Kep getting some spot starts around the infield and as a RH contact hitter off the bench though.

    If you can trade Gonzales, you have to find a good defensive replacement there.

    3. Adam Dunn.
    Do you pick up his option and trade him (see Gary Sheffield deal last year with the Yankees--Tigers) for pitching help? And if you trade him can they replace the lost offensive production he generates by possibly having Josh Hamilton as the everyday LF?
    I pick up his option and try to sign him to another multiyear deal.

    Griffey is the one who needs to be traded, IMO.

    4. Jared Burton.
    Do you reverse roles next season and make him the closer and Weathers the setup man?
    I stop assigning pitchers "roles" and use the best pitcher available for crucial late-inning situations.

    5. Wayne Krivsky.
    This will be Krivsky's third offseason. If his moves this offseason doesn't turn the club around and have them finish above .500 in 2008, should he be shown the door?
    Actually, its his second but next season is where I would expect to see some fruit on the trees he's planted.
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    Posting in Dynarama M2's Avatar
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    Re: Five Questions To Answer Going Into The Offseason

    1. I like Mackanin and it's got nothing to do with the W-L. Still, the Reds should do a full manager search.

    2. Maybe none of the above. I don't know that either Gonzalez or Keppinger is the answer at SS.

    3. The Reds should be contracted if they don't pick up Dunn's option. Technically, if they do pick it up, they can't trade him until June. Though that just means Dunn gets a say in where he goes. I assume that means a trading partner would have to overwhelm the Reds before they broached the subject with Dunn. Oddly I could see someone giving it a shot, which would only make the lack of offers this summer more baffling. Never let it be said that the wisdom of the industry makes sense. Anyway, barring something extraordinary, Dunn's coming back and that's a good thing.

    4. The Reds could stand to add some more bullpen arms. Until you know who the new faces are it's impossible to say where Burton should pitch.

    5. If Jocketty's available then Krivsky's job might be forfeit. If not, then he'll be back and he'll need to answer the eternal question of rebuild or load up. If he shoots once again for a non-existent middle path then I'd argue he fundamentally doesn't understand the club's predicament.
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    Re: Five Questions To Answer Going Into The Offseason

    I'll give my shot at my own questions.

    1. I would bring Mackanin back on a one-year deal. Maybe it's me but I'm not that fascinated with LaRussa as the manager. Without better pitching, the results would probably be the same as Mackanin as manager. And LaRussa hasn't worked miracles in St. Louis this season with the injuries and subpar pitching.

    2. I keep Gonzalez as the shortstop with Keppinger as the utility player. The guy I'm putting on the trading block is Ryan Freel.

    3. You pick up his option and try to sign him to an extension. Not everyone can score 100 runs, hit 40+ HRs and 90+ RBIs consistently the past three seasons. Dunn has his faults but there has been improvement this season. The guy the Reds need to move is Griffey because they can't afford both Dunn and Griffey's contracts and afford a solid pitching staff.

    4. Burton's stuff is so nasty that it reminds me of Rob Dibble. Eventually Dibble became the Reds closer and I see the same thing for Burton if Weathers struggles early in the closer role come 2008. But if Bill Bray is healthy from the start of the season he could also be a factor.

    5. A few more contract signings like the Cormier and Stanton deals and Krivsky's performance as a GM could come under scrutiny. But he has shown the ability to find those hidden gems like Burton, Hamilton, Keppinger and even Cantu. But the likes of Votto, Bruce, Bailey and Cueto were the results of Dan O'Brien's watch as GM in drafting them. Until I see the players obtain in the amateur draft under Krivsky's watch reach the majors, I'll reserve grading him.
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  15. #14
    The Lineups stink. KronoRed's Avatar
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    Re: Five Questions To Answer Going Into The Offseason

    1. Give him an interview but make a real search, interview a bunch of people, no need to punt on this like the last two opportunities.

    2. Keppinger is not an everyday SS, he should be the new IF supersub, ready for anyone getting hurt.

    3. Keep Dunn, no need to actively shop him, unless someone makes a ridiculous offer it's best to keep him long term.

    4. Closer is so overrated, keep Burton in a position to get 3 outs when it's really important, 7th 8th...whenever.

    5. I think Wayne has to produce a + .500 season next year or he's gone.
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    Re: Five Questions To Answer Going Into The Offseason

    Quote Originally Posted by bucksfan2 View Post
    Jay Bruce and Cueto?
    How do you handle these guys. The reds have brought their prospects along at a slow pace. You can't argue with the impact that Keppy and Votto have had in their time in the bigs. You also don't know if their extended time in AAA actually helped their development.
    What Keppinger and Votto have done should have no bearing on any decisions regarding Bruce and Cueto. Their situations are completely different.

    Keppinger is 27 and has been splitting time between AAA and the majors since the second half of 2004. Votto dominated AA in 2006 and then dominated AAA for a full season before coming up this year.

    With Bruce and Cueto, you have two kids who started this season in High A ball. They certainly have more talent, but they've had nowhere near the experience in the upper minors that Keppinger and Votto had before playing well in the bigs.


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