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Thread: John Fay's article today-- 2002 draft the Reds could have had.....?????

  1. #16
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: John Fay's article today-- 2002 draft the Reds could have had.....?????

    CC,
    If you look at more recent history, then the college/HS pitching argument doesn't work. The success rate is within 3% of eachother. Its when you start looking to pre 1998 that the college/HS argument really works, but things have changed significantly in development of high school arms since then.

    We can disagree about Bailey. I think the Reds are feeling pretty good with that pick right now. When he has been healthy, he has been pretty good this year.... albeit it has just been 23.2 innings of healthy baseball, but it has been good stuff with a 3.42 ERA, 0 HR and just 17 hits allowed.

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  3. #17
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    Re: John Fay's article today-- 2002 draft the Reds could have had.....?????

    hindsight is 20/20 when it comes to the baseball draft. No one is a sure bet at the time

  4. #18
    He has the Evil Eye! flyer85's Avatar
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    Re: John Fay's article today-- 2002 draft the Reds could have had.....?????

    they passed on Kazmir and it was all about the money(Leatherpants said it wasn't ... but more than a few lies have passed his lips).

    It would probably have taken another $1M+ to sign Kazmir and it would have blown what little budget the Reds had.
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    post hype sleeper cincinnati chili's Avatar
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    Re: John Fay's article today-- 2002 draft the Reds could have had.....?????

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    CC,
    If you look at more recent history, then the college/HS pitching argument doesn't work. The success rate is within 3% of eachother. Its when you start looking to pre 1998 that the college/HS argument really works, but things have changed significantly in development of high school arms since then.
    That's interesting. It wouldn't surprise me if scouting/medical knowledge have improved to the point that the gap has closed substantially. I will say that I'm skeptical of the 3%. Do you know the methodology they used to come up with this number?

    I ask, because I did a lot of reading around 2001-2002 and studies back then would call pitchers "successful" draft picks, even if they got released by their drafting teams and then resurfaced in the majors 8 or 10 years later.

    For example, John Patterson got a $6 million bonus as a top 5 pick. He indeed had at least one great major league season (worth AT LEAST $6 million in my opinion). But he had been lost in minor league free agency before being of any use to a major league team.

    Unless the data has changed DRASTICALLY in the last 5-6 years, college pitchers are significantly more likely to help the teams that drafted them prior to reaching arbitration years when they get more expensive.

    I dug up a comment I wrote about Gruler in the 2002 draft thread. Some of my comments need to be modified (Chris Carpenter became a Cy Young Winner, Adam Eaton became better-than-worthless). But overall, between 90-96 first round high school pitchers did very poorly.

    If I were running a team, I would advocate drafting high school pitchers in quantity, rather than with the premium high $$$$ picks.
    How, then, are those people of the future—who are taking steroids every day—going to look back on baseball players who used steroids? They're going to look back on them as pioneers. They're going to look back at it and say "So what?" - Bill James, Cooperstown and the 'Roids

  6. #20
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: John Fay's article today-- 2002 draft the Reds could have had.....?????

    Quote Originally Posted by cincinnati chili View Post
    That's interesting. It wouldn't surprise me if scouting/medical knowledge have improved to the point that the gap has closed substantially. I will say that I'm skeptical of the 3%. Do you know the methodology they used to come up with this number?
    It came down to making the majors and having a specific number of innings pitched. However I don't recall the exact number of innings pitched in the major leagues.

    I ask, because I did a lot of reading around 2001-2002 and studies back then would call pitchers "successful" draft picks, even if they got released by their drafting teams and then resurfaced in the majors 8 or 10 years later.

    For example, John Patterson got a $6 million bonus as a top 5 pick. He indeed had at least one great major league season (worth AT LEAST $6 million in my opinion). But he had been lost in minor league free agency before being of any use to a major league team.

    Unless the data has changed DRASTICALLY in the last 5-6 years, college pitchers are significantly more likely to help the teams that drafted them prior to reaching arbitration years when they get more expensive.
    I think it has changed a ton in the last 5-6 years.

    I dug up a comment I wrote about Gruler in the 2002 draft thread. Some of my comments need to be modified (Chris Carpenter became a Cy Young Winner, Adam Eaton became better-than-worthless). But overall, between 90-96 first round high school pitchers did very poorly.
    Yes, but between 1990 and 1996 teams ran young pitchers into the ground. Like I said, the development of these type of pitchers has changed dramatically since then... and the numbers are starting to get a lot closer due to high school pitchers having their arms protected now days.

  7. #21
    Charlie Brown All-Star IslandRed's Avatar
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    Re: John Fay's article today-- 2002 draft the Reds could have had.....?????

    I've seen where some BP studies of more recent years have shown the gap closing between high-school and college pitchers. The argument I buy the most is the "bonuses" argument. As signing bonuses continue to go up, even outside the first round, it's less and less common to see top-shelf pitching prospects pass up the pros to play college ball. Without even getting into whether prep pitchers are better handled or how well developed college pitchers may be, the selection bias is affecting the depth of pitching coming out of the college ranks, if not necessarily at the top of the board.

    Also, there are a lot of benefits to playing college ball, but I think there's an awareness now that winning is serious business and an ace pitcher always stands the risk of being dangerously overused in postseason play.
    Last edited by IslandRed; 09-23-2007 at 06:36 PM.
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  8. #22
    post hype sleeper cincinnati chili's Avatar
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    Re: John Fay's article today-- 2002 draft the Reds could have had.....?????

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    It came down to making the majors and having a specific number of innings pitched.
    There's an inherent flaw in that methodology because clubs tend to give bonus babies second, third, fourth, fifth, and eighteenth chances. Ideally, I think that these studies should look at WARP or win shares or something like that prior to arbitration and/or free agency. I don't really care if a guy made it to the majors, but instead care about how much he contributed.

    But as for your larger point, you're probably right that I should just admit that the return on high school pitching has gotten better in recent years. I didn't like the Gruler pick in 2002, but I wasn't exactly lobbying for Kazmir either. The latter has done quite well.
    How, then, are those people of the future—who are taking steroids every day—going to look back on baseball players who used steroids? They're going to look back on them as pioneers. They're going to look back at it and say "So what?" - Bill James, Cooperstown and the 'Roids

  9. #23
    Posting in Dynarama M2's Avatar
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    Re: John Fay's article today-- 2002 draft the Reds could have had.....?????

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    Since 2002, there have been plenty of high school pitchers worth their signing bonus.

    2002
    Zack Greinke
    Jeff Francis
    Scott Kazmir
    Cole Hamels
    Matt Cain

    2003
    Chad Billingsley

    2004 (these guys are barely 21 years old right now, but I bet the Reds and the Yankees are enjoying their money well spent right now)
    Homer Bailey
    Phil Hughes

    Sure, there were some flops in there.... but there were flops for college pitchers, hitters, relievers, everything. Thats how the MLB draft is.
    Francis was a college pitcher out of the University of British Columbia. You've probably got him mixed up with Adam Loewen.

    Bailey and Hughes are at an interesting place. Do you cash in on their value via trade, thereby getting a definitive return on the signing bonus, or do you hang onto them in the hope they can deliver in the majors? My guess is the Reds will do the latter with Bailey and the Yankees will do the former with Hughes (possibly as part of the return for Johan Santana).
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  10. #24
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: John Fay's article today-- 2002 draft the Reds could have had.....?????

    Quote Originally Posted by M2 View Post
    Francis was a college pitcher out of the University of British Columbia. You've probably got him mixed up with Adam Loewen.
    Wow... brain fart.

    Bailey and Hughes are at an interesting place. Do you cash in on their value via trade, thereby getting a definitive return on the signing bonus, or do you hang onto them in the hope they can deliver in the majors? My guess is the Reds will do the latter with Bailey and the Yankees will do the former with Hughes (possibly as part of the return for Johan Santana).
    That would be interesting.... I think the Reds need to hold onto Bailey, personally. I see the Yankees making a play for Santana, but I don't know if they will be able to pull the trigger when the Twins ask for Joba and Phil.


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