BA: Pioneer League Top 20 (3 REDS)

[PuffyPig]

There's been a lot of discussion who is the Reds top prospect after the "big four." I previously voted for Roenicke, although Stubbs, Wood, Francisco, Maloney, all got some mention.

All things considered, at this point, I think it is pretty clear that Todd Frazier is the fifth best Reds prospect after Bruce, Bailey, Cueto, and Votto (in whatever order).

And Waring gets consideration for the top ten.

I'd be amazed if Stubbs isn't listed at #5 when the propsect handbook comes out.

[dougdirt]

I'd be amazed if Stubbs isn't listed at #5 when the propsect handbook comes out.

I am with you on that one. He isn't the hitter that Frazier is, but Stubbs at least knows his position, and he plays it VERY well. Frazier is likely #6 when the list comes out.

[RedsManRick]

Doug, I can't help but see Stubbs as Chris Dickerson with a touch more power. If we ignore that he was a first rounder, what is in the scouting report would indicate that he's really the best prospect after the big 4? Further, what does he have to do in 2008 to continue to deserve such praise.

I know he can play great defense and has great speed, but so did Reggie Taylor. Is his challenge just tightening up that swing and making more contact?

[Kc61]

I am with you on that one. He isn't the hitter that Frazier is, but Stubbs at least knows his position, and he plays it VERY well. Frazier is likely #6 when the list comes out.

Well, Chris Dickerson knows his position too.

If Stubbs is the Reds fifth best prospect, then BA is really in a theoretical world. Hitting has been a significant deficiency for him and, despite a few good weeks after he choked up, is possibly an achilles heel. If he doesn't pick it up, he's just a defensive back up.

On the other hand, if Frazier can hit as well as he's shown, he will be a major league starter. He may not know his position yet, but he'll get one, believe me. He's an athlete who can and does hit -- he'll start somewhere for someone.

For a position player, hitting is not just some footnote. It's obviously key.

Right now, I'd have Frazier at 5, Roenicke at 6, Maloney at 7, and Stubbs at 8. (Which represents a positive move for Drew on my list.) Probably Wood 9 and Francisco 10, by virtue of his late season homer barrage and his youth.

[dougdirt]

Doug, I can't help but see Stubbs as Chris Dickerson with a touch more power. If we ignore that he was a first rounder, what is in the scouting report would indicate that he's really the best prospect after the big 4? Further, what does he have to do in 2008 to continue to deserve such praise.

I know he can play great defense and has great speed, but so did Reggie Taylor. Is his challenge just tightening up that swing and making more contact?

All Stubbs has to do is hit close to what he did the second half of 2007. (KC, he had an .880 OPS in the second half of the season, it wasn't just a few weeks after he choked up, the month before he began choking up Stubbs had a .925 OPS).

As for Maloney, I have a hard time puting him in my top 15 right now. I am just not impressed by pitchers, regardless of what arm they throw with, who cant hit 90 MPH on their absolute best days of their lives.

[RedsManRick]

All Stubbs has to do is hit close to what he did the second half of 2007. (KC, he had an .880 OPS in the second half of the season, it wasn't just a few weeks after he choked up, the month before he began choking up Stubbs had a .925 OPS).

As for Maloney, I have a hard time puting him in my top 15 right now. I am just not impressed by pitchers, regardless of what arm they throw with, who cant hit 90 MPH on their absolute best days of their lives.

Shouldn't we expect a bit more out of a 23 year old in A ball? What has changed developmentally that allowed him to succeed in the 2nd half?

[dougdirt]

Shouldn't we expect a bit more out of a 23 year old in A ball? What has changed developmentally that allowed him to succeed in the 2nd half?

He was 22, and I don't know if we should expect more (for the overall season, yes, but for his second half, he hit very well). As for what changed developmentally in the second half, I honestly couldn't tell you. Maybe it was just one of those things where he had something click in his head. That said, about half of his second half at bats came away from the leadoff spot and maybe it was as simple as swinging at good pitches earlier in the count rather than taking them because he was batting leadoff. I don't know honestly, but he showed drastic improvement from one half to the next.

[Superdude]

This is a thought that occurred to me the other day, and I guess this thread is fitting enough. How has Todd Frazier unanimously blown past Mesoraco on the Redszone opinon charts? 4 months ago, Mesoraco was the 15th overall pick in the draft. Are we putting too much stock into a couple hundred rookie ball at bats or was Frazier just flying incredibly under the radar? My point is, if the draft was tomorrow and we didn't have the sandwich pick, would you take Frazier over Mesoraco?

[camisadelgolf]

I think that's a good question, Superdude. Personally, I'd still go with Mesoraco. Because he's a catcher and a teenager, it will presumably take him longer to reach his potential, and on top of that, a high school catcher is the most likely to never reach his potential. Don't get me wrong, though--I believe Mesoraco will be a solid MLB player in the future.

Comparing Mesoraco and Frazier is really a case of apples and oranges, in my opinion. A good catcher isn't expected to put up nearly the same offensive numbers as a good corner position player, so relative to the rest of the league at his position, I think Mesoraco will be the better player, but as for rating players without that particular bias, I think Frazier can be a much better hitter.

[M2]

This is a thought that occurred to me the other day, and I guess this thread is fitting enough. How has Todd Frazier unanimously blown past Mesoraco on the Redszone opinon charts? 4 months ago, Mesoraco was the 15th overall pick in the draft. Are we putting too much stock into a couple hundred rookie ball at bats or was Frazier just flying incredibly under the radar? My point is, if the draft was tomorrow and we didn't have the sandwich pick, would you take Frazier over Mesoraco?

Hell yeah. Look at the history of high school catcher picks and then factor in where Mesoraco came from (not exactly a baseball hotbed). I don't care where he was rated on draft day, he was a high school catcher from the weeds of Pennsylvania. He was a significant reach and if he makes it to the majors it's going to be a looooong developmental curve.

Mesoraco's stock was pretty much guaranteed to drop once he got into pro ball. He may turn out to be more valuable in ten years, but he's a symptom of an amnesiac system. If scouting departments had the collective ability to measure risk, he'd have been a much lower pick.

[Superdude]

Mesoraco's stock was pretty much guaranteed to drop once he got into pro ball.

I don't agree there. When Drew Stubbs finished '06 in Billings, his stock had dropped. The same rule doesn't apply for Mesoraco. Like you said, Mesoraco is a high school catcher from the weeds of Pennsylvania. We drafted him because of what he could be 4-5 years from now, not what he is now. Did you expect him to rake in his first couple hundred at bats...with two hurt thumbs?

He was a significant reach and if he makes it to the majors it's going to be a looooong developmental curve.

How was Mesoraco a reach? Granted, he was a riskier pick and is going to take longer to develop than the classis college pitcher everyone is clamoring for, but all the sources I saw had him listed as at least a mid first rounder.

[M2]

I don't agree there. When Drew Stubbs finished '06 in Billings, his stock had dropped. The same rule doesn't apply for Mesoraco. Like you said, Mesoraco is a high school catcher from the weeds of Pennsylvania. We drafted him because of what he could be 4-5 years from now, not what he is now. Did you expect him to rake in his first couple hundred at bats...with two hurt thumbs?

I didn't expect him to do squat in his first 200 ABs no matter what because I know what to expect from HS catchers from the boonies. Obviously they drafted him based on what he could be in 4-5 years (more like 6-7, but either one works for the purposes of this discussion). That's the reward part of the equation. Once again, I get back to risk, which MLB scouting, classically speaking, doesn't get. That's why they call it risk/reward.

How was Mesoraco a reach? Granted, he was a riskier pick and is going to take longer to develop than the classis college pitcher everyone is clamoring for, but all the sources I saw had him listed as at least a mid first rounder.

He was a reach because high school catchers are generally the riskiest of all picks. He was a reach because he's played against extremely poor competition. He was a reach because players at his position take a long time to develop. He was a reach because it was a case of buying a stock that you knew would immediately drop in value. That's the very definition of a reach. It may pay off years from now, but this kid was not a Jay Bruce investment.

[camisadelgolf]

He was a reach because high school catchers are generally the riskiest of all picks. He was a reach because he's played against extremely poor competition. He was a reach because players at his position take a long time to develop. He was a reach because it was a case of buying a stock that you knew would immediately drop in value. That's the very definition of a reach. It may pay off years from now, but this kid was not a Jay Bruce investment.

My definition of a reach is when someone is drafted much higher than he normally would've been. Devin Mesoraco had reportedly sky-rocketed up several teams' draft boards, and everywhere I read, Mesoraco would've been taken in the mid-to-late first round. I don't think he was a reach at all--I just think it was a case of supply and demand. For catchers, the demand is high, the supply is low, and therefore, they are often drafted higher than players at other positions.

[M2]

My definition of a reach is when someone is drafted much higher than he normally would've been. Devin Mesoraco had reportedly sky-rocketed up several teams' draft boards, and everywhere I read, Mesoraco would've been taken in the mid-to-late first round. I don't think he was a reach at all--I just think it was a case of supply and demand. For catchers, the demand is high, the supply is low, and therefore, they are often drafted higher than players at other positions.

Oh I know where Mesoraco rated in mid-June. Once again, we're talking about an industry that doesn't understand risk. When you're in that kind of industry, then you tend to do a lot of screwy things. If the industry did understand risk, then Mesoraco would have been a much lower picks, thus the reach part.

[Superdude]

but this kid was not a Jay Bruce investment.

That's the ultimate argument ending statement. Chuck talks to Jay Bruce. if anyone got that.