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I'm not a system player. I am a system.
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The way to beat the risk is to take the best player available that you can sign (which takes Porcello off the board).
Catchers, of any kind, are the riskiest picks you can make in the draft.... but I don't advocate passing up on a larger talent simply because he plays catcher and they historically haven't panned out.
So don't learn from history. You won't find me getting behind that notion.
As for when to take a catcher, IMO the main question to ask is where would we be drafting this guy if he were an OF. I'd be willing to reach a bit more since he plays behind the plate, but not overly much. Joe Mauer was still a top 10 pick in the OF (possibly still a #1). Mesoraco would have been borderline to get taken high enough to keep him out of college.
I'm not a system player. I am a system.
He shouldn't have been #1 on the board. They overvalued him because of his position. That's the point. Taking the best available only means something if you can actually identify best available.
I'll leave the voodoo of whether he'll turn out to be the best available five years from now, though I can pretty much assure you other later picks will have turned out better. What I can tell you in concrete terms, is he's already dropped from best available a scant four months later.
I'll bring up Bruce again, he got selected at #12 and has consistently risen in value. That's the history I'd prefer to learn from.
I'm not a system player. I am a system.
And there's proof that you can rationalize anything with a nebulous future.
If Mesoraco's still struggling next year I'm sure we'll hear about how everyone knew he'd be in for a difficult adjustment and that his struggles were always part of the plan, completely overlooking that the argument against him at the outset was that he was a raw, vastly inexperienced kid who was bound to struggle for an extended period of time, that all of that up front risk wasn't worth such an uncertain reward on a #15 pick.
I'm not a system player. I am a system.
Would be nice, but it won't happen. I've butted heads with M2 a lot on draft stuff, but in this case I think he's right that the Reds reached a little with this pick, based on his position. Personally, I was OK with it, given that for once the Reds had multiple high picks, thanks to FA compensation. Meso-man was a relatively conservative investment, in my opinion, at 1.4 million, when you're talking about trying to fill a position that's dreadfully thin throughout baseball with a player who looks to have a high ceiling there. Had the Reds had their usual 1 pick per round, it may have made more sense to get a college catcher later on.And in 12 months he could look like the best guy on anyones board.
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