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Thread: Give the gold to Silva

  1. #16
    Member Crosley68's Avatar
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    Re: Give the gold to Silva

    I have no problem over paying for very good pitching. I am very against over paying for slightly above replacement level pitching .........which is what I compare Silva to.
    Let's play two!!!

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  3. #17
    Posting in Dynarama M2's Avatar
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    Re: Give the gold to Silva

    Quote Originally Posted by lollipopcurve View Post
    I'll take the expensive league-average bird in the hand over the cheap ones out there in the bushes.
    <begin mixed metaphor>

    But that's the trapdoor the Reds keep falling through. Don't shell out for guys with average ceilings. Their basements will kill you.

    I'm a big fan of birds in hand, but that's not enough bird.

    <end mixed metaphor>
    Baseball isn't a magic trick ... it doesn't get spoiled if you figure out how it works. - gonelong

    I'm witchcrafting everybody.

  4. #18
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: Give the gold to Silva

    Quote Originally Posted by M2 View Post
    <begin mixed metaphor>

    But that's the trapdoor the Reds keep falling through. Don't shell out for guys with average ceilings. Their basements will kill you.

    I'm a big fan of birds in hand, but that's not enough bird.

    <end mixed metaphor>


    A very interesting way to summarize a great point.

    Develop guys with high ceilings. Sign guys with high floors.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

  5. #19
    Posting in Dynarama M2's Avatar
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    Re: Give the gold to Silva

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    Develop guys with high ceilings. Sign guys with high floors.
    That's better phrasing than I put to it. Yeah, do exactly that.
    Baseball isn't a magic trick ... it doesn't get spoiled if you figure out how it works. - gonelong

    I'm witchcrafting everybody.

  6. #20
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    Re: Give the gold to Silva

    i say go after Willis in a trade.. we need a lefty and he would fit in between Harang and Arroyo

  7. #21
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    Re: Give the gold to Silva

    I understand the risk involved. But I think it's a good risk because if Silva pitches reasonably close to the way he pitched this year, the Reds are right there to win the division, provided the rest of the pitching holds.

    I think there is a lot of bias against signing free agent pitchers in the wake of the Milton debacle. Lost in that are some of the particulars of why Milton was a really poor risk, though those particulars were bandied about ad infinitum here -- his flyball tendencies, his chronic health issues. Silva is a groundball pitcher and he's been very durable.

    I like the FA market. All you lose is owner's money -- and the Reds are looking at having a lot of money to spend over the next few years, while the young offensive core is in place. The scrap heap -- you're lucky to find anything. The trade market -- say goodbye to some of your best talent.

    To me, Silva is the kind of risk a team that wants to win takes.
    "Baseball is a very, very complex business. It's more of a people business than most businesses." - Bob Castellini

  8. #22
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: Give the gold to Silva

    The one thing Milton did reasonably well that Silva is horrible about is miss bats. That means a lot more balls are subject to three things: luck, the natural park affects of wherever he's pitching, and team defense. If Silva was a Red, two of those three things would be working against him.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

  9. #23
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    Re: Give the gold to Silva

    Sign guys with high floors.
    Silva has had one bad year. Every other year he has been solid. If you're looking for flukes in his performance, it's the bad one, not the others.

    Say you sign him to 4 years. Say you get two good years, two not so good. My contention is that in those 2 years in which he pitches well, the Reds are very likely to be contending for the division title in September. You gotta take that shot.
    "Baseball is a very, very complex business. It's more of a people business than most businesses." - Bob Castellini

  10. #24
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: Give the gold to Silva

    Again Lillipop, consider the conditions in which he's had success. Minnesota has been among the leaders in defensive efficiency during his tenure. I don't disagree with your basic premise, but as M2 rightly pointed out, he's league average in a best case scenario. Given the Reds horrible defense, committing significant money to a mediocre at best upside, and disastrous downside isn't too smart. There are legitimate reasons to believe he would not likely match his Twins' success as a Red.

    It's one thing to commit to a guy like that for a year or two, or at minimal financial risk (think Matt Belisle). However, with limited resources, you need something that more closely resembles a sure thing in this environment.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

  11. #25
    Posting in Dynarama M2's Avatar
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    Re: Give the gold to Silva

    Quote Originally Posted by lollipopcurve View Post
    I understand the risk involved. But I think it's a good risk because if Silva pitches reasonably close to the way he pitched this year, the Reds are right there to win the division, provided the rest of the pitching holds.

    I think there is a lot of bias against signing free agent pitchers in the wake of the Milton debacle. Lost in that are some of the particulars of why Milton was a really poor risk, though those particulars were bandied about ad infinitum here -- his flyball tendencies, his chronic health issues. Silva is a groundball pitcher and he's been very durable.

    I like the FA market. All you lose is owner's money -- and the Reds are looking at having a lot of money to spend over the next few years, while the young offensive core is in place. The scrap heap -- you're lucky to find anything. The trade market -- say goodbye to some of your best talent.

    To me, Silva is the kind of risk a team that wants to win takes.
    I'd love to agree with you. I'm all for the Reds spending money and getting 200 IP of good pitcher. It's just I don't think Silva fills the bill.

    It's not the what (free agency) for me, it's the who (Silva). Unfortunately I don't see any whos in the what for this offseason.
    Last edited by M2; 09-25-2007 at 05:44 PM.
    Baseball isn't a magic trick ... it doesn't get spoiled if you figure out how it works. - gonelong

    I'm witchcrafting everybody.

  12. #26
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    Re: Give the gold to Silva

    The one thing Milton did reasonably well that Silva is horrible about is miss bats. That means a lot more balls are subject to three things: luck, the natural park affects of wherever he's pitching, and team defense. If Silva was a Red, two of those three things would be working against him.
    k/9 2005-2007

    Milton (05-07): 5.94, 5.31, 5.17
    Silva (05-07): 3.39, 3.49, 3.89

    So, let's say Milton averages out to 5.5 k/9, Silva to 3.5. That may be 1.5 outs over the course of the 6-7 innings they'd normally throw. Given all the other parameters of their performance, HR rate, BB rate, ability to take their turn in the rotation, not to mention the near-certainty that Silva would be pitching with a better defense over the life of his contract, I think Milton's better K rate puts little in his favor.
    "Baseball is a very, very complex business. It's more of a people business than most businesses." - Bob Castellini

  13. #27
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    Re: Give the gold to Silva

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    Pitchers who succeed in GABP aren't the ones who don't give up any homers (they don't exist). They're the ones that succeed even with they give up a homer or two. The hitters who benefit aren't the Adam Dunn's and Wily Mo Pena's who hit the ball 475 feet, but rather Brandon Phillips and Alex Gonzalez.
    I agree with you completely, but, for some reason, Phillips and Gonzalez aren't fitting that mold (even though you would expect them to).

    Both Phillips and Gonzalez have hit better on the road this year than at home. It's especially a surprise with Gonzalez. Randa was a creature of GABP. Hatteberg is an extreme example.

    But your premise is correct. Hitters with the more marginal power (but good general overall skills and a good eye) should be gold at GABP.

  14. #28
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    Re: Give the gold to Silva

    Quote Originally Posted by lollipopcurve View Post
    k/9 2005-2007

    Milton (05-07): 5.94, 5.31, 5.17
    Silva (05-07): 3.39, 3.49, 3.89

    So, let's say Milton averages out to 5.5 k/9, Silva to 3.5. That may be 1.5 outs over the course of the 6-7 innings they'd normally throw. Given all the other parameters of their performance, HR rate, BB rate, ability to take their turn in the rotation, not to mention the near-certainty that Silva would be pitching with a better defense over the life of his contract, I think Milton's better K rate puts little in his favor.

    OK, you've convinced me that Silva can be as good as Milton.

    Now what?

  15. #29
    The Lineups stink. KronoRed's Avatar
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    Re: Give the gold to Silva

    No thanks, he may be the "best" available but he's not what this team really needs, and because he's the "best" then he's going to be really expensive.
    Go Gators!

  16. #30
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: Give the gold to Silva

    That's not an apples to apples comparison. We have to compare Silva to what we knew about Milton when we signed him. Here are Milton's numbers in the year's preceding the Reds signing him:

    1999: 206.1 IP, 7.11 K/9
    2000: 200.0 IP, 7.20 K/9
    2001: 220.2 IP, 6.40 K/9
    2002: 171.0 IP, 6.37 K/9
    2003: 17.0 IP, 3.71 K/9
    2004: 201.0 IP, 7.21 K/9

    That's the pitcher the Reds thought they were giving a contract to. Namely, a durable starter with above average strikeout ability and good control, but with strong flyball tendencies. He pitched 201 innings in 2004, indicated (wrongly) to Reds brass that he was healthy again after missing most of 2003.

    3 fewer Ks per 9 is an inning per game that Silva relies on his defense relative to the average pitcher. Given BABIP rates, that's a hit per game, based just on his non-strikeouts. Given the high hit rate in Cincy (due both to HR frequency in GABP and the Reds low DER ), that's a recipe for a step back in performance.

    If Silva is going to be as good as Milton, who similarly had league average upside even when completely healthy, I would hope we've learned our lesson.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.


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