My guess is that Frazier starts in Dayton if Valaika is still around. I really think the Reds will err on the side of conservatism when it comes to where they put guys in A ball -- they want to have a good team in Dayton -- it's really their signature minor league affiliate and squarely inside Reds country -- plus it's a great place to play. So, while Frazier may be overqualified to play there (and I think you may be right that he could survive in AA), he's going to have a lot of fun excelling in front of 8000+ there every night for part of the year. In this scenario, he stays at SS.Does Frazier have bat enough to play in AA next year? He might. And how long does he stay at SS? He's a fascinating complication.
Ultimately, I'd love to see him get a shot at 1B -- with his athleticism and size, he could turn out to be a heckuva defensive asset over there.