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Thread: 72-90 and a look ahead at 2008

  1. #1
    OlafTheBlack Dan's Avatar
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    72-90 and a look ahead at 2008

    Not that it's worth bragging about, but I predicted 72-90 before the season started.

    Does this look like a WS team in 2008? I actually think it's a fairly strong team if they get the right breaks. BTW, Cueto and Maloney aren't in the pen by mistake. They ought to be there next year to get them used to the bigs as part of their development. Then they can start in 2009. Problem is, they never will be put there as they're "starters."

    Reds 2008:

    2b Phillips
    CF Hamilton
    RF Griffey
    3b Encarnacion
    LF Dunn
    1b Votto
    SS Gonzalez
    C Ross

    SP Harang
    SP Arroyo
    SP Bailey
    SP Livingston
    SP Belisle

    RP Burton
    RP Coutlangus
    RP Cueto
    RP Maloney
    RP Bray
    CL Weathers

    IF Hatteberg
    IF Keppinger
    IF/OF Freel
    OF Hopper
    IF/OF Cantu
    C Valentin
    Sabermetrics is this: A batter's goal is to extend the inning. Extend enough innings and you're going to score runs. Extend more innings than your opponent and you're going to score more runs than him.

    Forget the rain. It's never an official game until the Reds piss away a run between third base and home plate. - Bluegrass Redleg

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  3. #2
    Member Highlifeman21's Avatar
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    Re: 72-90 and a look ahead at 2008

    Dan, I was right there with ya.

    I also had them at 72-90.

    So did edabbs, redsfanmia, nmculbreth, cooper.

    6 of us knew what was up with the 2007 club.

    Here's to hoping they do something in the offseason to give me reason to predict more than 72 wins next year.

  4. #3
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    Re: 72-90 and a look ahead at 2008

    Isn't Livingston out for all of next year?

  5. #4
    Greatness In The Making RedLegSuperStar's Avatar
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    Re: 72-90 and a look ahead at 2008

    Quote Originally Posted by PuffyPig View Post
    Isn't Livingston out for all of next year?
    That's what I thought
    "I could watch video of Griffey swinging all day. It's like baseball porn." - C. Trent Rosecrans


    2008 Reds Record When I Attend: 9W - 5L

    2009 Reds Record When I Attend: 1W - 2L

    2010 Reds Record When I Attend: 1W - 0L

    2011 Reds Record When I Attend: 0W - 1L

  6. #5
    Greatness In The Making RedLegSuperStar's Avatar
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    Re: 72-90 and a look ahead at 2008

    With the Reds.. they will have at least 12 pitchers.. so the bench will only have 5 guys.
    "I could watch video of Griffey swinging all day. It's like baseball porn." - C. Trent Rosecrans


    2008 Reds Record When I Attend: 9W - 5L

    2009 Reds Record When I Attend: 1W - 2L

    2010 Reds Record When I Attend: 1W - 0L

    2011 Reds Record When I Attend: 0W - 1L

  7. #6
    Will post for food BuckeyeRedleg's Avatar
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    Re: 72-90 and a look ahead at 2008

    I had 74-88 which puts me in the ballpark. They were heading for 74 wins, until the last week (7 losses in a row). Just too many injuries to get those last two wins.

    I know next year I see more than 74 wins, but I'm not sure how many more until I see what moves the make. I think things are definitely looking better.

  8. #7
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: 72-90 and a look ahead at 2008

    PECOTA had the Reds at 71-91, which Nate Silver adjusted to 72-90 in his discussion of the predictions.

    PECOTA's take....Silver's Adjustment... (reality)
    CHI 85-77, 87-75 (85-77)
    MIL 85-77, 83-79 (83-79)
    STL 81-81, 81-81 (78-84)
    HOU 80-82, 81-81 (73-89)
    PIT 76-86, 74-88 (68-94)
    CIN 71-91, 72-90 (72-90)

    Not too shabby. I had us at 77. Was thinking we'd get a little more from Belisle, Coffey, and EE. Oh well. Here's to next year's run at .500!
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

  9. #8
    Box of Frogs edabbs44's Avatar
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    Re: 72-90 and a look ahead at 2008

    Quote Originally Posted by Highlifeman21 View Post
    Dan, I was right there with ya.

    I also had them at 72-90.

    So did edabbs, redsfanmia, nmculbreth, cooper.

    6 of us knew what was up with the 2007 club.

    Here's to hoping they do something in the offseason to give me reason to predict more than 72 wins next year.
    Me being right was pretty much the highlight of the year for me.

    Here's to hoping that the FO does more than what they did last offseason.

    God I hope I'm more optomistic in '08.

  10. #9
    Party like it's 1990 Blitz Dorsey's Avatar
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    Re: 72-90 and a look ahead at 2008

    Quote Originally Posted by Dan View Post
    Not that it's worth bragging about, but I predicted 72-90 before the season started.

    Does this look like a WS team in 2008? I actually think it's a fairly strong team if they get the right breaks. BTW, Cueto and Maloney aren't in the pen by mistake. They ought to be there next year to get them used to the bigs as part of their development. Then they can start in 2009. Problem is, they never will be put there as they're "starters."

    Reds 2008:

    2b Phillips
    CF Hamilton
    RF Griffey
    3b Encarnacion
    LF Dunn
    1b Votto
    SS Gonzalez
    C Ross

    SP Harang
    SP Arroyo
    SP Bailey
    SP Livingston
    SP Belisle

    RP Burton
    RP Coutlangus
    RP Cueto
    RP Maloney
    RP Bray
    CL Weathers

    IF Hatteberg
    IF Keppinger
    IF/OF Freel
    OF Hopper
    IF/OF Cantu
    C Valentin
    Insert a FA pitcher as the No. 2 or No. 3 man in our rotation (and somehow upgrade the bullpen) and we are in business (Harang, Arroyo, FA, Bailey, Belisle).

  11. #10
    Party like it's 1990 Blitz Dorsey's Avatar
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    Re: 72-90 and a look ahead at 2008

    I also like the thought of having a legit No. 4 OF like Hopper. If he needs to start for a few games if someone is banged up, we know he can get the job done. 2006 minor league batting champ. Then hits .330 in over 300 at-bats in the majors this year? Folks, he's not a fluke. He's not an everyday starter either, but he's a damn good No. 4 OF in my opinion.

    I should have learned by now not to be so optimistic with me Reds. But I like the way the roster is shaping up for next year and I think we might be able to sneak ourselves into contention if we make some decent moves this offseason. Nothing crazy, just a couple moves that we will look back on as solid upgrades to the team.

  12. #11
    Member Superdude's Avatar
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    Re: 72-90 and a look ahead at 2008

    I actually wouldn't mind seeing Cueto in the bullpen either. He already has a feel for three above average pitches, so it probably wouldn't stunt his development much if at all. IMO, it's the future starters who try and get their feet wet in the bullpen with only two pitches they trust that lose out on development. In order to get quick results, they temporarily scrap the third pitch. Biggest reason I didn't want Bailey in the pen a year or so ago. Plus, it'd just be fun to see how much gas he could throw in one or two inning stints.


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