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Thread: Home Runs and Park Factor

  1. #1
    ZCTRMTP!!!!! texasdave's Avatar
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    Home Runs and Park Factor

    This is a brief, informal look at home runs and park factors. It is evident that it is easier to home runs in some ballparks than it is in others. I was just curious as to how much difference it would make. I took the 2007 NL park factors for each stadium from ESPN.
    (I would have used 3-year park factors, but I couldn't find them so I settled for 1-year park factors.) These park factors where then used to adjust the home runs that each club hit in 2007. The way this was done is that if the park factor for a specific stadium was 1.1 and a team hit 10 home runs there, then 10 was divided by 1.1 to get 9.09. That is the number a that would have been hit had the park factor been 1.0 (or neutral). Of course this isn't the perfect way to make adjustments. But I am not that math-savvy and this probably adjusts it close enough to give a basic understanding of how park factors would affect a team's total home runs. Anyway here is how it played out:

    Code:
    TEAM	ACT-HR	PFN-HR	DIFF	%DIFF
    MIL	231	221	10	4.5%
    PHI	213	188	25	13.3%
    CIN	204	180	24	13.3%
    FLA	201	203	-2	-1.0%
    NYM	177	185	-8	-4.3%
    ATL	176	181	-5	-2.8%
    ARI	171	166	5	3.0%
    SDP	169	199	-30	-15.1%
    COL	169	151	18	11.9%
    HOU	167	161	6	3.7%
    CHC	151	140	11	7.9%
    PIT	148	167	-19	-11.4%
    STL	141	162	-21	-13.0%
    SFG	131	140	-9	-6.4%
    LAD	129	128	1	0.8%
    WSN	123	145	-22	-15.2%
    Adjusting for Park Factor probably gives us a truer picture of a team's power. Philadelphia and Cincinnati had the easiest stadiums to hit homers, according to the ESPN Park Factors, and they both hit around 25 home runs more than they would expect to hit in a Park Factor Neutral stadium. This worked out to about 13% more homers. On the flip side San Diego and Washington were penalized most by their stadiums. They each would have hit about 15% more in a PFN stadium. That adds up to roughly a 30% difference between the easiest and hardest stadiums in which to go yard. Which is quite a difference, IMO.

    I then took a look at all NL players who hit more than 20 home runs in 2007 (and any Red who hit more than 15). This is not a knock or evaluation of any player.

    Code:
    PLAYER	ACT-HR	PFN-HR	DIFF	%DIFF
    FIELDER	50	48	2	4.2%
    HOWARD	47	43	4	9.3%
    DUNN	40	36	4	11.1%
    HOLIDAY	36	31	5	16.1%
    CABRERA	34	35	-1	-2.9%
    BRAUN	34	34	0	0.0%
    BERKMAN	34	33	1	3.0%
    SORIANO	33	31	2	6.5%
    BELTRAN	33	36	-3	-8.3%
    PUJOLS	32	35	-3	-8.6%
    C.YOUNG	32	32	0	0.0%
    C. LEE	32	31	1	3.2%
    UGGLA	31	30	1	3.3%
    ROLLINS	30	26	4	15.4%
    PHILIPS	30	26	4	15.4%
    GRIFFEY	30	27	3	11.1%
    AD.GONZ	30	33	-3	-9.1%
    BURRELL	30	26	4	15.4%
    HAWPE	29	27	2	7.4%
    H.RAMRZ	29	29	0	0.0%
    C.JONES	29	31	-2	-6.5%
    BONDS	28	32	-4	-12.5%
    ROWAND	27	23	4	17.4%
    GREENE	27	33	-6	-18.2%
    HARDY	26	24	2	8.3%
    A.RAMRZ	26	24	2	8.3%
    A.JONES	26	26	0	0.0%
    ATKINS	25	24	1	4.2%
    ZIMERMN	24	28	-4	-14.3%
    TLWTSKI	24	21	3	14.3%
    HART	24	24	0	0.0%
    DELGADO	24	24	0	0.0%
    UTLEY	22	19	3	15.8%
    D. LEE	22	19	3	15.8%
    WILNGHM	21	21	0	0.0%
    LAROCHE	21	25	-4	-16.0%
    JENKINS	21	21	0	0.0%
    DUNCAN	21	24	-3	-12.5%
    CAMERN	21	26	-5	-19.2%
    BYRNES	21	19	2	10.5%
    BAY	21	23	-2	-8.7%
    NADY	20	21	-1	-4.8%
    KENT	20	21	-1	-4.8%
    FELIZ	20	21	-1	-4.8%
    HAMLTN	19	17	2	11.8%
    ROSS	17	14	3	21.4%
    EDE	16	14	2	14.3%
    AL.GONZ	16	15	1	6.7%
    It appears that the upper and lower limits of how much a stadium helps or hurts any particular player in going deep is approximately five.
    This would indicate that a player who hit 30 home runs in a Park Factor Neutral stadium would hit roughly 35 in the easiest of stadiums in which to hit home runs, and 25 in the most difficult of stadiums in which to hit home runs.

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  3. #2
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    Re: Home Runs and Park Factor

    In my opinion, Dunn's home runs are usually no-doubters that would be a home run in any park. So I think the analysis is more true of the marginal players than the "true" home run hitters.
    Who's on first?

  4. #3
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    Re: Home Runs and Park Factor

    I would also argue that GABP is a HR ballpark partly because of the team that plays in it. Not that it would be a pitchers park with another team but when you take a team with some sluggers combined with not so great pitching and of course your gunna have more homeruns in the park that they call home.


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