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Thread: My moves for 2008 in two big steps (long)

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    Member Wheelhouse's Avatar
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    My moves for 2008 in two big steps (long)

    1) Hire the top manager available. Any saavy baseball man can see the Reds have great talent and are on the uptick--so a top name can be attracted to Cincy. GIVE THE NEW MANAGER FREE REIGN TO HIRE HIS COACHES. No keeping Hume or whatever insider nonsense has happened recently. If you are getting a top manager, let him freely shape his own staff.

    2) Here's the real biggie. The financial position the Reds are in dictates one thing: they need to free up cash to get a #3 starter, two quality relievers, and a catcher. These were the brutal weaknesses of the club. How is it done? Those players are out there on the free agent market this year. Let's assume for arguments sake they can get one of the relievers through trade. The cost to buy the rest? It ain't pretty:
    The #3 starter will cost $12 mil a year.
    The other reliever $6 million
    The catcher $12 million.
    I may be overestimating the cost, but am I?
    Teams are not trading pitching on that scale, and the best catchers in the game are the ones that could be free agents this year. These players must, and can, be BOUGHT this year.
    So-------
    the Reds need to clear around $30 million to make these moves. Unavoidable conclusion: Dunn and Griffey must go. I believe Seattle would take a Griffey who is in the last year of his contract and nearing 600 home Runs. And I think Jr. would agree to it. I don't like losing Dunn as he cut his errors in half, brought his average up 30 points and shaved 30 Ks off his total this year. But in order to serve the very weakest elements of the club, he must go. As must Gonzalez and Hatteberg. Now I'm sure a great wail will rise from the center of Redszone, "Then how do you replace that production?" Here's the explanation:
    Griffey can not only be replaced, but eclipsed by Hamilton in production and defense. If Jay Bruce (Baseball America AND Sporting News Minor League Player of the Year) starts for the Reds and lives up to HALF the hype, CF will have juiced up production next year. After that, I'm willing to risk that Hopper, Freel, and/or Cantu can give the adequate boost to the team to make the outfield production comparable to this year. Not to mention the addition of an OF the VERY tradeable Hatteberg or Gonzalez could bring. Keppinger must replace Gonzalez, to free money. Votto must replace Hatteberg to free money. How much does that free up?
    With these moves, and Saarloos and Milton off the payroll the Reds free up over $35MM. Then consider a $2 million dollar cost of releasing Stanton and you've got $33 million. See Brandon Phillips getting around $2.5-$3 million in arbitration and there you have it.
    Around $30 million to fill the Reds desperate needs in a decent free agent season. As much as we hate to see Griff and Dunn go, imagine a lineup with Jorge Posada or Ivan Rodriguez in it, while giving Bruce and Hamilton more playing time? Then imagine a rotation of Harang, Arroyo, and Carlos Silva? Add Shawn Chacon to the Reds' bullpen? Then the Reds would really have a team of BALANCED quality.
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    Big Red Machine RedsBaron's Avatar
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    Re: My moves for 2008 in two big steps (long)

    Shawn Chacon might be good to have.
    Carlos Silva had a poor 2006 but pitched okay in 2007. However, his strikeouts to innings pitched ratio has been poor for years. He averaged 3.40, 3.50 and 3.97 strikeouts per 9 innings over the last three seasons. That is a K rate that scares me.
    As for Jorge Posada or Ivan Rodriguez, the former had a terrific season season in 2007 and the latter is a future Hall of Famer. Each one will be 36 years old next season. I'm not thrilled by the prospect of the Reds building their lineup around a 36 year old catcher.
    These suggested moves somewhat strike me of another round of "here's the guys I want to get rid of." I'm not that concerned if the Reds don't have Griffey back, but they can afford, and should keep, Dunn.
    Last edited by RedsBaron; 10-03-2007 at 06:36 AM.
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    Member schroomytunes's Avatar
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    Re: My moves for 2008 in two big steps (long)

    Well here is my theory on some offseason moves to help us improve for next year. Feel free to pick them apart:

    With the emergence of Hopper and Keppinger I think they have enabled us to have a pretty solid bench in 08, and it allows us to explore the pitching side alot more aggressively! So I begin the offseason this way:

    1) Have a solid manager and coaching staff in place before FA starts! If I had my choice it would be Bob Brenly,Ken Macha, and Joe Girardi in that order.

    2)Address the pitiful state of the bullpen!
    -Sign Scott Linebrink to a 3yr contract to shore up middle relief
    -Sign Shawn Chacon to a 2-3yr contract to be the 5th starter/Long reliever.

    3)Gain Salary Relief!
    -Trade Ryan Freel to anyone looking for a UTL guy....and get a prospect for him.

    -Decline the option on Hatteberg...while a good player Votto/Cantu are much cheaper and more of a part of the future.

    -Look at trade options for David Ross...someone will be looking at a catcher this offseason and do a David Ross/Todd Coffey offer for prospects and throw in some cash to get the deal done!

    4)Starting Pitching!
    -we need a 3/4 starter, why not go after Jason Jennings this offseason he had a terrible 07 and will not command the same $ this FA period and he will likely be @8 million per. He would win 10-16 games with this offense.

    5)Garbage Pile Pickups!
    -see who's left before Spring training and offer them the veteran minimum, someone's always left after the music stops.

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    I hate the Cubs LoganBuck's Avatar
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    Re: My moves for 2008 in two big steps (long)

    Quote Originally Posted by schroomytunes View Post
    Well here is my theory on some offseason moves to help us improve for next year. Feel free to pick them apart:

    With the emergence of Hopper and Keppinger I think they have enabled us to have a pretty solid bench in 08, and it allows us to explore the pitching side alot more aggressively! So I begin the offseason this way:

    1) Have a solid manager and coaching staff in place before FA starts! If I had my choice it would be Bob Brenly,Ken Macha, and Joe Girardi in that order.

    2)Address the pitiful state of the bullpen!
    -Sign Scott Linebrink to a 3yr contract to shore up middle relief
    -Sign Shawn Chacon to a 2-3yr contract to be the 5th starter/Long reliever.

    3)Gain Salary Relief!
    -Trade Ryan Freel to anyone looking for a UTL guy....and get a prospect for him.

    -Decline the option on Hatteberg...while a good player Votto/Cantu are much cheaper and more of a part of the future.

    -Look at trade options for David Ross...someone will be looking at a catcher this offseason and do a David Ross/Todd Coffey offer for prospects and throw in some cash to get the deal done!

    4)Starting Pitching!
    -we need a 3/4 starter, why not go after Jason Jennings this offseason he had a terrible 07 and will not command the same $ this FA period and he will likely be @8 million per. He would win 10-16 games with this offense.

    5)Garbage Pile Pickups!
    -see who's left before Spring training and offer them the veteran minimum, someone's always left after the music stops.
    Jennings is probably going to miss most of 08 with elbow surgery

    David Ross is worth more to the Reds then trading him will bring back.

    Linebrink will be very expensive based on reputation, and his peripherals were sliding at the time of his trade.

    Chacon- no thanks.
    The Sox traded Bullfrog the only player they've got for Shottenhoffen. Four-eyes Shottenhoffen a utility infielder. They've got a whole team of utility infielders.

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    Greatness In The Making RedLegSuperStar's Avatar
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    Re: My moves for 2008 in two big steps (long)

    I'd like to sign Freddy Garcia on a incentive based contract (2 years for 14 million w/ chance at 8 million in incentives over those 2 years and a team option for 2010 at 12 million w/ 1 million dollar buyout). Then I would look at signing Jeremy Affeldt as the 4th starter.

    That would give us a rotation of:

    Harang
    Arroyo
    Garcia
    Allfeldt
    Bailey

    The 2 starter signings places Belisle in the pen for long relief and as a spot starter. I would maybe make a run at one bullpen arm.. maybe Jorge Julio. Burton and Weathers are sure bets for the 8th and 9th. Stanton is signed and if doesn't pan out the first month then I would look at letting the veteran go. I think guys like Salmon, McBeth, Coutlangus, Bray, Pelland, Majewski, Coffey, Gosling, Dumatrait, Gardner, Mallett, and Roenicke will battle it out for the remaining slots.

    Belisle - LR
    Julio - MR
    Bray - MR
    Pelland - MR
    Stanton - MR
    Burton - SU
    Weathers -CP

    I think with the emergence of Hopper and Keppinger that Freel becomes expendable. I'd look to deal him for a prospect. Dunn's option should be picked up. I also think Bruce should get a chance in spring training but start the season in AAA. Javy and Ross at catcher are fine with me.. they know the staff and hopefully Ross can rebound. If this team stays healthy and do the little things to move runners along and score runners that are on 2nd and 3rd with less then 2 outs more frequently and the pitching staff pitches as well as it looks on paper and bullpen can have a below 5.00 ERA combined then we just might have a contender amongst us.
    "I could watch video of Griffey swinging all day. It's like baseball porn." - C. Trent Rosecrans


    2008 Reds Record When I Attend: 9W - 5L

    2009 Reds Record When I Attend: 1W - 2L

    2010 Reds Record When I Attend: 1W - 0L

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    Re: My moves for 2008 in two big steps (long)

    Quote Originally Posted by Wheelhouse View Post
    "Then how do you replace that production?" Here's the explanation:
    Griffey can not only be replaced, but eclipsed by Hamilton in production and defense. If Jay Bruce (Baseball America AND Sporting News Minor League Player of the Year) starts for the Reds and lives up to HALF the hype, CF will have juiced up production next year. After that, I'm willing to risk that Hopper, Freel, and/or Cantu can give the adequate boost to the team to make the outfield production comparable to this year.
    Replacing the production of Dunn/Hamilton/Griffey with Hamilton/Bruce/Hopper will not be pretty.

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    Greatness In The Making RedLegSuperStar's Avatar
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    Re: My moves for 2008 in two big steps (long)

    Quote Originally Posted by PuffyPig View Post
    Replacing the production of Dunn/Hamilton/Griffey with Hamilton/Bruce/Hopper will not be pretty.
    Agreed.. considering Bruce has half a season at Louisville and Hamilton.. can he stay healthy? Face it.. Dunn and Griffey are needed to provide this pitching staff some run support if contending is something this team wants to achieve.
    "I could watch video of Griffey swinging all day. It's like baseball porn." - C. Trent Rosecrans


    2008 Reds Record When I Attend: 9W - 5L

    2009 Reds Record When I Attend: 1W - 2L

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    Member Wheelhouse's Avatar
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    Re: My moves for 2008 in two big steps (long)

    Quote Originally Posted by PuffyPig View Post
    Replacing the production of Dunn/Hamilton/Griffey with Hamilton/Bruce/Hopper will not be pretty.
    I understand your concern, but keep in mind that Catcher would be replaced by a much higher producing hitter (and yes for only a short term deal, as Posada and Rodriguez are at the back ends of their careers). And this, while satisfying an immense need for pitching on the club. The Reds are in a terrible position, and they need to make moves that may sting a little bit for some fans, IMO.
    "Don't trust any statistics you did not fake yourself."--Winston Churchill

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    Re: My moves for 2008 in two big steps (long)

    Quote Originally Posted by Wheelhouse View Post
    I understand your concern, but keep in mind that Catcher would be replaced by a much higher producing hitter (and yes for only a short term deal, as Posada and Rodriguez are at the back ends of their careers). And this, while satisfying an immense need for pitching on the club. The Reds are in a terrible position, and they need to make moves that may sting a little bit for some fans, IMO.
    Both Posada and Rodriguez can not be expected 140+ games like Dunn. I think New York retains Posada and their is rumors floating that the Tigers may now decline the option for Pudge.. but their were rumors prior saying they would pick it up. Pudge does have a 3 million dollar buyout.
    "I could watch video of Griffey swinging all day. It's like baseball porn." - C. Trent Rosecrans


    2008 Reds Record When I Attend: 9W - 5L

    2009 Reds Record When I Attend: 1W - 2L

    2010 Reds Record When I Attend: 1W - 0L

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    Something clever pahster's Avatar
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    Re: My moves for 2008 in two big steps (long)

    Quote Originally Posted by Wheelhouse View Post
    I understand your concern, but keep in mind that Catcher would be replaced by a much higher producing hitter (and yes for only a short term deal, as Posada and Rodriguez are at the back ends of their careers).
    I'm not at all convinced that Rodriguez would be anything more than a trivial offensive upgrade. Keep in mind that he had a .294 OBP this year. He hasn't been much with the stick over the last three years and it's unlikely that he would come cheap. Sounds like a waste of resources to me.

  12. #11
    Waitin til next year bucksfan2's Avatar
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    Re: My moves for 2008 in two big steps (long)

    I dont think the reds are as bad off at C as most people think. Ross is an adequate C good at throwing out runners yet a poor offensive player. I don't mind him hitting 8th in the order and realize that every player is not going to be a top tier offensive and defensive player. Here are my thought for this offseason. I think this is a VERY important offseason for the future of the reds organizatoin.

    1. Manager. I dont really want Larussa because I don't know how much fire he will have. He is a good manager but his ego and age don't work for me with this club. I like a guy like Girardi but wonder about his 1 season as a manager.

    2. Get rid of dead weight
    -Coffey must go. He has shown that his trips down to AAA have not helped him become a better pitcher.
    -Freel must go. His value isn't that high that you can't replace him. Maybe trade him to Atl who may be looking for a flexible guy to play CF since Jones won't be back.
    -Hatty must go. He did nothing to hurt his stock as a red. However he is old and the reds have a better replacement.
    -Stanton gets a month. If he doesn't improve you DFA him like Frenchie.
    -Valentine is gotten rid of. Either by not picking up his option or picking it up and trading him. His real value is as a swing for the fences PH.
    -Gonzo must be floated as trade bait. Gonzo had a decent season when you consider what he was dealing with. However his only value is as a starter. He has a friendly contract which may increase his value and is a good defensive SS with some pop. I just don't know how you keep Keppy out of the lineup if he continues to hit in the .330's. You also have Lopez as a defensive player if Keppy doesn't pan out.

    3. Outfield decisions.
    Hamilton/Dunn/Jr. are the outfielders right now. Hamilton should be in the lineup every day. Dunn's option should be picked up and Jr. should be shopped. I don't think Jr. goes to Seattle because that is a long way from home. He was a great salesman when he was there this year but I just don't see it. The Yanks or Mets may be places but don't know if he goes. Dunn's option is only not picked up if the reds plan on going after Hunter or Jones. I dont see it so Dunn will be back. Bruce will have a chance to earn a spot in spring training but I don't think he forces anyone out.

    4.Pitching
    Do you go outside or do you promote from within. The only starters I forsee as locks are Harang/Arroyo/Bailey. Shern will have a leg up on the competition in the spring and I think Belisle is looking at the pen. I tell Belisle that I want him for 1+ innings and I want him to be max effort in those innings. I look for a starter in the FA market but I don't know if there is an upgrade out there. I give Cueto and Maloney a shot to make the team in the spring but think both will end up in AAA. The pen will be improved with Burton and Weathers at the end.

    5. Trades
    Who gets traded and for what? This is what I think will be most important in this offseason. Over the past 2 years not only has Krivsky improved the depth of the team he has also made several player expendable who have major league contracts. If the reds do trade does it help the reds now or in the future.

    6. FA/ Rule V
    I have no clue what happens here. I don't know who they go after, what, or even if they sign anyone. I would love to se some wheeling and dealing and getting a guy like Jones or Hunter but don't see the ownership opening up their pocket books. Also what is the pay roll going to be? Does management give the fans something and spend more or do they stay thrifty for next season? Also as long as Krivsky is GM I would expect to see at least one Rule Ver make the team.

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    Posting in Dynarama M2's Avatar
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    Re: My moves for 2008 in two big steps (long)

    There is no #3 starter in the free agent market. Some might argue Silva, but that would be like throwing good money down a rabbit hole, IMO.

    Jorge Posada's not coming to Cincinnati. Outside of Posada (who's no spring chicken), there's probably not a single catcher in all of baseball who's worth and needs to be paid (due to service time) $12M. There certainly isn't a catcher other than Posada worth any sort of major investment in the free agent market.

    The reliever market for free agency is incredibly thin as well. Francisco Cordero is pretty much the lone ranger (or perhaps I should say Brewer).

    So you can't buy the talent in this area. You have to trade for it. And if you're looking for an established starter, established relievers and an established catcher then what it's going to take to trade for them is prospects and inexpensive major leaguers. Teams usually only trade established talents in rebuilding schemes.

    What I'm saying here Wheelhouse is that you've built this plan on faulty premises. What you've basically got is a plan for the team to perform self-mutilation (not picking up Dunn's option) and then blowing huge sums of money on what would be an even worse team.
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  14. #13
    Will post for food BuckeyeRedleg's Avatar
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    Re: My moves for 2008 in two big steps (long)

    Wayne's to-do list


    1. Pick up Dunn's option and feel stupid if you were even not considering it.

    2. Pick up Javy's $1.3M option for '08. Between he and Ross ($2.5M), you got a solid catching platoon for under $4M.

    3. Try to deal Gonzo somewhere closer to home (for him). If you can't deal him, don't sweat it. Just see what you can get.

    4. Harang is untouchable. Repeat this over and over to yourself each morning. Do not even entertain the thought of trading him.

    5. If the deal is right, consider dealing Arroyo. It has to be real good though.

    6. You screwed up paying Coffey. Get over it. Stuff happens. Hope he figures it out and makes an impact in the 'pen in '08

    7. Congrat's on Brandon Phillips. He's a bona fide super-duper star. Be fair to him in arbitration. Watch him closely in '08 and consider a long-term deal after if he's, indeed, the real deal.

    8. Find yourself some bullpen help in Free Agency. If ownership loosens it's pursestrings, consider a closer. Francisco Cordero would be nice although probably unrealistic.

    9. Avoid an expensive Free Agent starter. Belisle will be cheap and decent. He will improve. Harang is an ace. Arroyo is solid. Hopefully Bailey is ready to take the next step. Cueto could be a bonus. Shearn can hold down #5 at worst case, however, if you can get Lohse cheap, bring him back.

    10. LET GO:

    -Buyout Hatteberg's option for '08 and say "thanks and goodbye." ($150K)

    -If Guardado wants to stay he can sign a minor league deal with incentives if he makes the big club. No 1-year, $3M deal.

    -Bye bye, Kirk Saarloos. Be kind to us when you are lighting it up pitching out of the pen in St. Louie. You stink as a Red.

    -Bye bye, Jason Ellison. I believe he's arb eligible and even if he wasn't he wouldn't be worth a roster spot.

    -If Gary Majewski is deemed arb eligible (he had 2.039 yrs service coming into 2007), let him go. If not, pay him the minimum.

    -Bye bye, Phil Dumatrait. Do not leave him on the 40-man. If he's taken in the Rule V, so be it.

    -Same with Ryan Hanigan and our boy Keymastur (Jorgensen).


    11. TRY TO TRADE:

    If they could somehow deal Freel ($7M over '08 & '09), Stanton ($3.5M including '09 buyout), Castro ($1.075 including '09 buyout), and Griffey (16.5M including '09 buyout) I would be thrilled. Griffey and Freel are the only two (of the above) that are realistic from a trade perspective. I wouldn't expect much in exchange for either, unless the Reds can throw some cash with them. Castro will remain the highest paid bench coach in baseball, that just happens to occupy a roster spot. Stanton should do everyone a favor and retire.
    Last edited by BuckeyeRedleg; 10-03-2007 at 10:32 AM.

  15. #14
    No half measures, Walter RedEye's Avatar
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    Re: My moves for 2008 in two big steps (long)

    Quote Originally Posted by Wheelhouse View Post
    I understand your concern, but keep in mind that Catcher would be replaced by a much higher producing hitter (and yes for only a short term deal, as Posada and Rodriguez are at the back ends of their careers). And this, while satisfying an immense need for pitching on the club. The Reds are in a terrible position, and they need to make moves that may sting a little bit for some fans, IMO.
    While I agree that the Reds may need to make some deals that "sting" a little bit, I sure hope that they don't choose to make the deals that you predict.

    IMO, they just can't trade both Griffey and Dunn and hope to have an offense worth beans. Sure, I wouldn't mind giving Bruce and Hamilton a chance to shine, but I don't think it's prudent to put too much faith in a rookie and an injury-prone guy in his second year. Hopper is a bench player. Period.

    Ross isn't great, but we haven't really had a great offensive catcher for awhile (and really there are very few of them in the majors right now... Mauer, Martin, Posada, maybe I-Rod although he never walks). I'm content with a platoon of Javy and Ross because of that... unless we can trade for a YOUNG catcher like Jeff Clement (currently stuck behind Johjima in Seattle).

    I do whole-heartedly agree with you about the pitching, so I might be willing to part with Griff or Dunn for the right deal. If one of them is traded, however, we absolutely need to get back at least a reliable innings-eater. Again, I'm not sure how many of them there are out there, but I sure hope Wayne is hitting the phones yesterday.
    "Iíll kind of have a foot on the back of my own butt. Thatís just how I do things.Ē -- Bryan Price, 10/22/2013

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    Re: My moves for 2008 in two big steps (long)

    Quote Originally Posted by M2 View Post
    So you can't buy the talent in this area. You have to trade for it. And if you're looking for an established starter, established relievers and an established catcher then what it's going to take to trade for them is prospects and inexpensive major leaguers. Teams usually only trade established talents in rebuilding schemes.
    Quoted for truth.

    The reds need to fix the starting pitching. Anybody and everybody is on the table to that end. They have enough talent, and enough diverse talent, that everybody is available for the right deal.

    The facts are .....
    Given his injury status and contract, Junior is probably not tradable.
    Given his contract status Dunn is not tradable.

    Just a thought with the option picked up is Scott Hatteberg worth anything in the trade market? I would think given the price he could be a nice throw-in part of a deal.
    "Even a bad day at the ballpark beats the snot out of most other good days. I'll take my scorecard and pencil and beer and hot dog and rage at the dips and cheer at the highs, but I'm not ever going to stop loving this game and this team and nobody will ever take that away from me." Roy Tucker October 2010


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