Last Week: 7-7
Season: 40-22
Record Picking Redskins Games: 1-2
Against the Spread: 10-5-1
Lock of the Week: 3-1

Last Week's Pats: Though the 7-7 record is nothing to brag about, I did manage to pick some nice upsets, including Atlanta over Houston, Buffalo over the Jets, and most impressively, Arizona over Pittsburgh. I also continued my strong showing against the spread this year, finishing the week at 3-1.

Last Week's Apologies: Looks like I've misjudged the Seahawks. I thought Seattle was in for a fall from grace this year, but so far, they look strong. They went on the road and destroyed the 49ers last week. Tampa Bay also caught my eye last week with their dismantling of Carolina.
This Week's Picks:

Carolina at New Orleans: I couldn't be more unsure of any game. While I no longer believe the Saints will just magically explode and look like they did last year, I also find it hard to believe that they could be as bad as they've looked thus far. Carolina is a different team week to week. Throwing my hands in the air and picking the home team.

Saints 24, Panthers 21

New York Jets at New York Giants: Always a fun match-up. The NFL makes no sense, and neither does this pick based on the way the teams have played the past few weeks.

Jets 23, Giants 21

Seattle at Pittsburgh: A rematch of Super Bowl XL. As I mentioned above, Seattle has surprised me thus far. So, with that in mind, I'm going with.......Pittsburgh.

Steelers 20, Seahawks 17

Arizona at St. Louis: I was very high on the Rams and watched as they burned me in my picks for the first three weeks. Last week, I finally got wise and they didn't disappoint-- getting whipped by the Cowboys. I'm still not sold that Arizona can win on the road, and St. Louis is bound to win sometime, but for now, I'll take the Cards.

Cardinals 30, Rams 27

Miami at Houston: The Texans just aren't the same team without Andre Johnson. However, what should be more startling for Texans fans is that Joey Harrington and the Falcons moved the ball so easily last week. Good thing for Houston, the miserable Dolphins are in town.

Texans 21, Dolphins 19

Detroit at Washington: The more I watch the trends around the NFL, the more I am convinced the Redskins offensive "philosophy" is fatally flawed and way behind the curve the rest of the league has set. The Redskins struggle to get over 17 points week after week and their defense, while solid, is not good enough to win those types of games week in and week out. I think the Lions are probably the better team here, but I am going with Washington for two reasons: Detroit is 0-20 all time in Washington, which is one of those random sports stats that just makes your jaw drop. Secondly, I'll be there. The Redskins won't let me down like that, will they?

Redskins 23, Lions 20

Cleveland at New England: I think the Browns can cover the 16 point spread. That should be their goal.

Patriots 35, Browns 20

Jacksonville at Kansas City: I'm not a huge Herm Edwards fan, but I've got to hand it to the guy-- I thought the Chiefs were staring at a 3-13 type of season, but they've rattled off two in a row and the offense is beginning to look competent. Jacksonville is the most schizo team in the league-- no idea what to expect from them week to week.

Chiefs 17, Jaguars 16

Atlanta at Tennessee: Bobby Petrino looks like he may know what he's doing. The Falcons offense has looked very sharp the past two weeks. But the Titans will be too much for Atlanta to handle on the road.

Titans 24, Falcons 20

Tampa Bay at Indianapolis: Wonder if the Bears are rethinking not going after Jeff Garcia? The guy just keeps finding ways to win. Tampa Bay has been very solid on both sides of the ball the past three weeks. But going into Indy is a whole new ballgame.

Colts 30, Bucs 17

Baltimore at San Francisco: I said before the year that I wasn't too high on the Ravens-- so far in 2007, they haven't proven me wrong. I picked the 49ers to pull off an upset last week, and they totally laid an egg. I'm going to roll the dice with them one more time and say Trent Dilfer finds a way to beat his old team.

49ers 19, Ravens 16

San Diego at Denver: I'd hate to be in the losing lockeroom after this one. A game of desperation for both teams. San Diego is getting what they deserved by hiring Norv Turner. Denver is lucky they aren't 0-4. I see the Chargers finally pulling one out.

Chargers 27, Broncos 23

Chicago at Green Bay: This is one of those games where deep down, I could see the Bears pulling it out. But right now, there is just too much evidence to the contrary.

Packers 20, Bears 16

Dallas at Buffalo: Expect the Bills to make a good showing at home on national television. Also, expect the Cowboys to run away and hide in the 4th quarter.

Cowboys 27, Bills 17

4 To Score

1. Atlanta (+8) against the Titans: I think the Falcons offensive surge the past two weeks is legit.
2. New York Jets (+3) against the Giants: Not a true "road game" for the Jets. At worst, I see this as a push.
3. Seattle (+6) against the Steelers: This one has me a bit nervous because it isn't a huge game for Seattle, but the 6 points seems high to me.
4. San Diego (Even) against the Broncos: I always enjoy Pick Em' games, as maddening as they may be.