Turn Off Ads?
Page 3 of 3 FirstFirst 123
Results 31 to 40 of 40

Thread: Baseball America International League Top 20

  1. #31
    Member
    Join Date
    Dec 2006
    Location
    Amarillo,Texas
    Posts
    4,326

    Re: Baseball America International League Top 20

    I think the Rangers really helped their team and their farm system with all the prospects they got back from Atlanta at the trade deadline. I live in Texas and watched what some of those kids could do in televised games.

  2. Turn Off Ads?
  3. #32
    We are the angry mob cincyinco's Avatar
    Join Date
    Feb 2005
    Location
    The 303
    Posts
    2,533

    Re: Baseball America International League Top 20

    Quote Originally Posted by AmarilloRed View Post
    I think the Rangers really helped their team and their farm system with all the prospects they got back from Atlanta at the trade deadline. I live in Texas and watched what some of those kids could do in televised games.
    couldn't agree more. I think the only spect I mentioned in my post from the bos/atl deals was engel beltre.

    didn't even count guys like salty, matt harrison, elvis andrus..etc.

    sorry everyone. I'm not a big believer that depth is the most important thing about a system, but its a top factor.

    the rangers don't have 4 top tier prospects like we do.. but they have a couple in Hurley & volquez. but their depth is so good, it cripples the reds's depth IMO & bridges the gap between the two easily. beyond our 10 there are guys with far more questions to them than what sits in TX.

    Top talent is good, but so is depth. balance the two & you have a winning combination. a pipeline of talent has been built seemingly overnight.

    kudos to the rangers.
    "I hate to advocate chemicals, alcohol, violence or insanity to anyone... But they've always worked for me."

    -Hunter S. Thompson

  4. #33
    You're soaking in it! MartyFan's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2004
    Location
    Columbus, OH
    Posts
    3,350

    Re: Baseball America International League Top 20

    I am not sure what makes an organization a top 5 organization...The Reds seem to have talent that is ready to come to the big league and deliver...but beyond this coming year...how does the system look?

    I mean to be considered a good organization wouldn't it require that a team have a few levels deep of top end talent?

    Just asking and if that is the way the question is framed, how to the Reds fair?
    "Sometimes, it's not the sexiest moves that put you over the top," Krivsky said. "It's a series of transactions that help you get there."

  5. #34
    Member
    Join Date
    Sep 2000
    Posts
    4,225

    Re: Baseball America International League Top 20

    Depth is pretty damn important.

    Even the best prospects sometimes fall flat on their faces, and sometimes a 'depth' guy who is projected a a backup ends up being an all-star. Take a look at some of the old BBA prospect lists and you'll find plenty of complete busts among their top 10 prospects. You'll also find a number of fantastic players who never rose above the 'honorable mention' list as prospects.

    All that a higher ranking means is that a player has a higher probability of becoming a star. The likelihood of a top 10 prospect becoming a star is akin to the likelihood of a coin flip coming up 'heads'. Meanwhile, the likelihood of a guy ranked in the 100-150 range becoming a star is a akin to the likelihood of a roll of a die coming up 'one'. For the most part, you would rather have the coin flip, but if someone gives you a choice between six rolls of the die or a single coin flip, you take the six rolls of the die.

    When it comes to prospects, quantity is almost as important as quality.

  6. #35
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2006
    Posts
    34,862

    Re: Baseball America International League Top 20

    Quote Originally Posted by Steve4192 View Post
    Depth is pretty damn important.

    Even the best prospects sometimes fall flat on their faces, and sometimes a 'depth' guy who is projected a a backup ends up being an all-star. Take a look at some of the old BBA prospect lists and you'll find plenty of complete busts among their top 10 prospects. You'll also find a number of fantastic players who never rose above the 'honorable mention' list as prospects.

    All that a higher ranking means is that a player has a higher probability of becoming a star. The likelihood of a top 10 prospect becoming a star is akin to the likelihood of a coin flip coming up 'heads'. Meanwhile, the likelihood of a guy ranked in the 100-150 range becoming a star is a akin to the likelihood of a roll of a die coming up 'one'. For the most part, you would rather have the coin flip, but if someone gives you a choice between six rolls of the die or a single coin flip, you take the six rolls of the die.

    When it comes to prospects, quantity is almost as important as quality.
    I think its about 70-30 in the quality/depth department. Depth is important, but quality at the top is more valuable in my mind, due to the better odds of them turning out.

  7. #36
    Member
    Join Date
    Sep 2000
    Posts
    4,225

    Re: Baseball America International League Top 20

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    I think its about 70-30 in the quality/depth department. Depth is important, but quality at the top is more valuable in my mind, due to the better odds of them turning out.
    I agree that quality is more important, but I think a lot of folks overestimate the actual probabilities involved with a prospect becoming a star.

    Some fans assume that just because Jay Bruce, Justin Upton, Cam Maybin, Evan Longoria are all top 20 prospects, they are all mortal locks for superstardom. The truth of the matter is, one of 'em will probably end up being a star, two of 'em will probably end up being good but not great players, and one will probably wash out completely. Yes, even the great Jay Bruce stands a chance (however small) of being a total bust.

    For every Albert Pujols who meets &/or exceeds expectations, there are ten Austin Kearns who don't come close to meeting expectations.

  8. #37
    Member
    Join Date
    Mar 2004
    Posts
    4,673

    Re: Baseball America International League Top 20

    That is the key point. Really, rating farm system's should be done backwards, how many did pan out and do well?

    If Bailey,Bruce,Votto and Cueto all pan out as we expect, history will look at the 2006-07 systems with glee. If they don't, then it goes in steps.

  9. #38
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2006
    Posts
    34,862

    Re: Baseball America International League Top 20

    Quote Originally Posted by Steve4192 View Post
    I agree that quality is more important, but I think a lot of folks overestimate the actual probabilities involved with a prospect becoming a star.

    Some fans assume that just because Jay Bruce, Justin Upton, Cam Maybin, Evan Longoria are all top 20 prospects, they are all mortal locks for superstardom. The truth of the matter is, one of 'em will probably end up being a star, two of 'em will probably end up being good but not great players, and one will probably wash out completely. Yes, even the great Jay Bruce stands a chance (however small) of being a total bust.

    For every Albert Pujols who meets &/or exceeds expectations, there are ten Austin Kearns who don't come close to meeting expectations.
    Well of the four you named, I would say that Maybin has the furthest to go before he reaches any stardom. He can't hit to save his life.... where as the other three don't really have that problem.

    Of course. what defines a 'star' and a 'quality' player? I would make an argument that while Ryan Braun falls into the 'star' category and Troy Tulo falls into the 'quality' player category, that Tulo is actually more valuable to his team, and therefore the better player.... For all the crap that Austin Kearns gets for not living up to his potential, he is a solid guy to have on your team. Defensively, he is likely the best player at his position in all of baseball and probably worth 13-16 runs on defense alone over the course of a season.

  10. #39
    Member
    Join Date
    Sep 2000
    Posts
    4,225

    Re: Baseball America International League Top 20

    My point really wasn't about any of those individual players. Perhaps I could have chosen better examples. My point was that a lot of folks get these pie-in-the-sky notions about prospects ranked in the 1-20 range, and the players rarely live up to those expectations.

    For any given year, the top 20 list usually ends up something like the following:

    2 perennial all-stars.
    4 above average starters who will have a long MLB career and might make an all-star game along the way.
    5 league average guys who who can hold down a starting position for a few years.
    4 guys who are above replacement level but won't hold down a starting job on a good team
    3 guys whose careers are completely derailed by injuries.
    2 guys who fall flat on their faces and never make an impact in the show.

    My point is that many fans assume that most of the uber-prospects will be guys with 10+ year careers and multiple all-star appearances. The reality is, a whole bunch of those guys will end up as busts, disappointments, backups, or placeholders.
    Last edited by Steve4192; 10-22-2007 at 04:59 PM.

  11. #40
    Posting in Dynarama M2's Avatar
    Join Date
    Sep 2000
    Location
    Boston
    Posts
    28,136

    Re: Baseball America International League Top 20

    Quote Originally Posted by Steve4192 View Post
    My point is that many fans assume that most of the uber-prospects will be guys with 10+ year careers and multiple all-star appearances. The reality is, a whole bunch of those guys will end up as busts, disappointments, backups, or placeholders.
    That's the chief reason why I'm no fan of those "Reds three years from now" projections. It usually involves assuming every prospect in the system turns up roses, everyone arrives early and no one ever has a rough adjustment. You never see projections based on what happens if you experience a 2/3 prospect failure rate (which would actually be a pretty low prospect failure rate).
    Baseball isn't a magic trick ... it doesn't get spoiled if you figure out how it works. - gonelong

    I'm witchcrafting everybody.


Turn Off Ads?

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •  

Board Moderators may, at their discretion and judgment, delete and/or edit any messages that violate any of the following guidelines: 1. Explicit references to alleged illegal or unlawful acts. 2. Graphic sexual descriptions. 3. Racial or ethnic slurs. 4. Use of edgy language (including masked profanity). 5. Direct personal attacks, flames, fights, trolling, baiting, name-calling, general nuisance, excessive player criticism or anything along those lines. 6. Posting spam. 7. Each person may have only one user account. It is fine to be critical here - that's what this board is for. But let's not beat a subject or a player to death, please.

Thank you, and most importantly, enjoy yourselves!


RedsZone.com is a privately owned website and is not affiliated with the Cincinnati Reds or Major League Baseball


Contact us: Boss | GIK | BCubb2003 | dabvu2498 | Gallen5862 | LexRedsFan | Plus Plus | RedlegJake | redsfan1995 | The Operator | Tommyjohn25