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Thread: Rotoworld Projects the Reds 2008 Roster

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  1. #1
    Worst Behavior. reds44's Avatar
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    Rotoworld Projects the Reds 2008 Roster


    Cincinnati

    CF Josh Hamilton/Ryan Freel
    3B Edwin Encarnacion
    RF Ken Griffey Jr.
    2B Brandon Phillips
    LF Adam Dunn
    SS Alex Gonzalez
    1B Joey Votto/Jorge Cantu
    C David Ross/Javier Valentin

    Aaron Harang
    Bronson Arroyo
    Carlos Silva
    Justin Germano
    Homer Bailey

    David Weathers
    Jared Burton
    Bill Bray

    As usual, the Reds need pitching, preferably two starters and a closer candidate. Unfortunately, there just isn't a lot available in free agency this winter and Cincinnati doesn't have a deep minor league system to deal from. While it's true the Reds have four of the game's top prospects in Jay Bruce, Homey Bailey, Joey Votto and Johnny Cueto, they have to keep those players and they don't have a lot of second-tier guys to use to entice other teams.

    So, the Reds could look to free agency first. They need to be in on both Koji Uehara and Kenshin Kawakami, but they're more likely to end up with Carlos Silva. While he'd be overpriced at $8 million per year, he has youth, durability and his ability to get a somewhat above average number grounders on his side. They could also trade for a veteran. Daniel Cabrera would be worth gambling on, or they could go after a veteran like Esteban Loaiza or Julian Tavarez. I have them trading Jeff Keppinger for Justin Germano, adding one more rotation option.

    The bullpen isn't quite so desperate of a need with Jared Burton establishing himself as a reliable setup man. David Weathers is less than ideal as a closer, but it'd be very expensive to replace him. The Reds figure to talk to Francisco Cordero, but they'll probably settle for a couple of lesser guys.

    The offense should be pretty well set if Adam Dunn's option is picked up. Ryan Freel is expendable, as the Reds can go with a Josh Hamilton/Norris Hopper platoon in center. However, his value is at rock bottom because of injuries. The Reds might as well keep him as protection for Hamilton and Ken Griffey Jr. Scott Hatteberg's option can be picked up, but he needs to be a bench player behind Votto. Jorge Cantu can start at first base against left-handers and serve as a backup elsewhere. The catching situation probably won't be upgraded since both David Ross and Javier Valentin are under contract for next year.

    If the Reds foolishly decline Dunn's option, they could go with Votto in left field and Hatteberg at first. They'd have a lot more money to throw at pitchers and they could become the favorites to land Cordero. However, they wouldn't be any better for it. My guess is that they'll exercise the option and then deal Dunn after he loses his no-trade protection on June 15. Either way, third place would seem to be the best-case scenario.
    http://www.rotoworld.com/content/fea...rticleid=29153

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    Member Highlifeman21's Avatar
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    Re: Rotoworld Projects the Reds 2008 Roster

    $8 Million a year for Carlos Silva?

    I guess if we gave $9 Million a year to Eric Milton, we've unfortunately set a precedent....



    Keppinger for Germano? I'm failing to see the logic in that move. For whatever reason, I see the Reds moving Alex Gonzalez in the offseason, and handing the SS job to Keppinger. I also don't see Germano returning to Cincinnati as a different pitcher. Correct me if I'm wrong.

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    Greatness In The Making RedLegSuperStar's Avatar
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    Re: Rotoworld Projects the Reds 2008 Roster

    Quote Originally Posted by Highlifeman21 View Post
    $8 Million a year for Carlos Silva?

    I guess if we gave $9 Million a year to Eric Milton, we've unfortunately set a precedent....



    Keppinger for Germano? I'm failing to see the logic in that move. For whatever reason, I see the Reds moving Alex Gonzalez in the offseason, and handing the SS job to Keppinger. I also don't see Germano returning to Cincinnati as a different pitcher. Correct me if I'm wrong.
    I'd probably go with Silva at 8 million.. heck Meche got 11 million a year and Silva IMO is better then Meche on top of that he is a year younger.

    I can't see the Reds dealing for Germano after a season plus that he was dealt. And I think Kepp is good for this team.. I hate to say it but I agree with you high and try to deal Gonzalez.. unfortunately I think A-Gon's mind was else where this season and caused him to have so many errors.
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    Lark11 11BarryLarkin11's Avatar
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    Re: Rotoworld Projects the Reds 2008 Roster

    Quote Originally Posted by RedLegSuperStar View Post
    I'd probably go with Silva at 8 million.. heck Meche got 11 million a year and Silva IMO is better then Meche on top of that he is a year younger.

    I can't see the Reds dealing for Germano after a season plus that he was dealt. And I think Kepp is good for this team.. I hate to say it but I agree with you high and try to deal Gonzalez.. unfortunately I think A-Gon's mind was else where this season and caused him to have so many errors.
    What makes Silva better than Meche???

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    Greatness In The Making RedLegSuperStar's Avatar
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    Re: Rotoworld Projects the Reds 2008 Roster

    Quote Originally Posted by 11BarryLarkin11 View Post
    What makes Silva better than Meche???
    Silva: 55W - 46L (.545 winning %) 4.31 ERA More Stats

    Meche: 64W - 57L (.529 Winning %) 4.44 ERA More Stats
    "I could watch video of Griffey swinging all day. It's like baseball porn." - C. Trent Rosecrans


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    Re: Rotoworld Projects the Reds 2008 Roster

    I doubt the Reds would be interested in Silva, he is a righty. Now, how about soon to be overpaid lefties, something the Reds have a history of doing

  7. #7
    Lark11 11BarryLarkin11's Avatar
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    Re: Rotoworld Projects the Reds 2008 Roster

    Quote Originally Posted by RedLegSuperStar View Post
    Silva: 55W - 46L (.545 winning &#37 4.31 ERA More Stats

    Meche: 64W - 57L (.529 Winning %) 4.44 ERA More Stats
    Personally, I think Carlos Silva is a "pitch to contact" nightmare just waiting to happen and I'd much prefer to see another organization make that mistake.

    It's difficult to find many starting pitchers in modern history who have maintained success over any appreciable period of time while striking out less than ~5.0 hitters per nine innings. For his career, Carlos Silva sits at 3.8 K/9.

    Carlos Silva does 2 of the 3 defense independent aspects of pitching well. He gets a lot of groundballs, which limits his homers, and doesn't walk many. That said, he more than most would seem to be a product of his environment.

    To be successful, Silva needs a strong defense behind him and a pitcher friendly ballpark. In Minnesota, he has both, but in Cincy he'd have neither. If you put Silva in GABP in front of the Reds defense, then I think he's in for big trouble.


    Twins Defense Efficiency Ratio

    2006: .687
    2007: .689

    Reds Defense Efficiency Ratio
    2006: .684
    2007: .679

    2004-2006 Park Effects
    Twins: 91 (9% harder in Metrodome than AL Parks)
    Reds: 119 (19% easier in GABP than NL Parks)


    The margin for error on guys like Silva is razor thin and I don't think he'd translate at all well to pitching for the Reds. Even with the advantages of a pitcher's park and a solid defense, he's had some very poor seasons.

    Carlos Silva's WHIP
    2002: 1.31
    2003: 1.48
    2004: 1.43
    2005: 1.17 <-- epically low BB/9 rate
    2006: 1.54
    2007: 1.31

    Silva's WHIP is already questionable, but if you take him out of his pitching friendly environment and drop him into the GABP meat grinder in front of a suspect defense, then I think he'll be something close to Eric Milton Part Deux.

    As for Meche, I'll take him over Silva everyday of the week and twice on Sundays. He's always had tremendous stuff, but injury problems have made him inconsistent. He's show flashes of it and had some very strong 1/2 seasons, but never a full season. In 2007, he was finally healthy and able to maintain his peak level of performance over the entire season, which resulted in a tremendous year.

    2007
    Gil: ERA: 3.67, WHIP: 1.30, BB/9: 2.6, K/9: 6.5, GB/FB: 1.36
    Carlos: ERA: 4.19, WHIP: 1.31, BB/9: 1.6, K/9: 4.0, GB/FB: 1.57

    Given our limited resources, handing out multimillion dollar contracts to mid/back of the rotation starters is not a wise idea. Meche has always had top of the rotation upside, while Silva is a back of the rotation pitcher. I'd probably be willing to pay for Meche's upside, but not for Silva and "his pitch to contact"/"team dependent" style.

    But, just my $.02.
    Last edited by 11BarryLarkin11; 10-07-2007 at 02:24 PM.

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    Rally Onion! Chip R's Avatar
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    Re: Rotoworld Projects the Reds 2008 Roster

    I wouldn't be surprised.

    They could add Tavarez for the pleasure of the female fans.
    The Rally Onion wants 150 fans before Opening Day.

    http://www.facebook.com/pages/Rally-...24872650873160

  9. #9
    Making sense of it all Matt700wlw's Avatar
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    Re: Rotoworld Projects the Reds 2008 Roster

    Quote Originally Posted by Chip R View Post
    I wouldn't be surprised.

    They could add Tavarez for the pleasure of the female fans.
    And for entertainment value for when he has one of his blowups

  10. #10
    Member blumj's Avatar
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    Re: Rotoworld Projects the Reds 2008 Roster

    Quote Originally Posted by Matt700wlw View Post
    And for entertainment value for when he has one of his blowups
    You're totally missing the most entertaining part of the whole Julian Tavarez experience: he has some kind of mental block about throwing to 1st base, so, when he has to field a ball, he rolls it to 1st, like bowling. It's really hysterical, and it actually works more often than you'd think.
    "Reality tells us there are no guarantees. Except that some day Jon Lester will be on that list of 100-game winners." - Peter Gammons

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    Member Spitball's Avatar
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    Re: Rotoworld Projects the Reds 2008 Roster

    Cabrera would probably be our #3 starter but might serve as a better #4.
    I have mixed feelings on Cabrera. I'm not sure I trust a pitcher in GABP who pitches so consistently behind in the count. He had difficulty in Camden Yards giving up 18 of his twenty-five homers there. He puts himself in the hole way too often, and constantly pitching 3-0 and 3-1 is a formula for failure in a hitters' park.

    I believe he would become a major whipping boy around here.
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    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: Rotoworld Projects the Reds 2008 Roster

    Quote Originally Posted by Spitball View Post
    I have mixed feelings on Cabrera. I'm not sure I trust a pitcher in GABP who pitches so consistently behind in the count. He had difficulty in Camden Yards giving up 18 of his twenty-five homers there. He puts himself in the hole way too often, and constantly pitching 3-0 and 3-1 is a formula for failure in a hitters' park.

    I believe he would become a major whipping boy around here.
    You could be right and that is why I wouldn't go nuts to acquire him. But he does throw hard and may have a future in the pen if he can't step forward in the rotation. He looks better than anything on the free agent market (though I'd take a flyer on Jon Leiber for a short and reasonable deal).

    I kind of like getting pitchers from other hitters parks. At least we have a better idea how they would handle GABP and wouldn't be overpaying for park created mirages.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

    Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS

  13. #13
    Worst Behavior. reds44's Avatar
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    Re: Rotoworld Projects the Reds 2008 Roster

    Quote Originally Posted by Chip R View Post
    I wouldn't be surprised.

    They could add Tavarez for the pleasure of the female fans.
    Better then Ezequiel Astacio.


  14. #14
    Member Highlifeman21's Avatar
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    Re: Rotoworld Projects the Reds 2008 Roster

    Quote Originally Posted by reds44 View Post
    Better then Ezequiel Astacio.

    That guy is the definition of the missing link.

  15. #15
    Greatness In The Making RedLegSuperStar's Avatar
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    Re: Rotoworld Projects the Reds 2008 Roster

    Quote Originally Posted by reds44 View Post
    Better then Ezequiel Astacio.

    Gulp.. Yikes..
    "I could watch video of Griffey swinging all day. It's like baseball porn." - C. Trent Rosecrans


    2008 Reds Record When I Attend: 9W - 5L

    2009 Reds Record When I Attend: 1W - 2L

    2010 Reds Record When I Attend: 1W - 0L

    2011 Reds Record When I Attend: 0W - 1L


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