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Thread: Rotoworld Projects the Reds 2008 Roster

  1. #31
    Titanic Struggles Caveat Emperor's Avatar
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    Re: Rotoworld Projects the Reds 2008 Roster

    Quote Originally Posted by Strikes Out Looking View Post
    And why would the Reds retrade for Justin Germano who struggled late in the season in a pitcher's park?
    Good question -- makes me wonder if the dude even read anything about Germano other than his season numbers.

    Like, for example, the fact that the Reds dumped him for the first warm body in the bullpen that got offered as a return...
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  3. #32
    Lark11 11BarryLarkin11's Avatar
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    Re: Rotoworld Projects the Reds 2008 Roster

    Quote Originally Posted by RedLegSuperStar View Post
    Silva: 55W - 46L (.545 winning &#37 4.31 ERA More Stats

    Meche: 64W - 57L (.529 Winning %) 4.44 ERA More Stats
    Personally, I think Carlos Silva is a "pitch to contact" nightmare just waiting to happen and I'd much prefer to see another organization make that mistake.

    It's difficult to find many starting pitchers in modern history who have maintained success over any appreciable period of time while striking out less than ~5.0 hitters per nine innings. For his career, Carlos Silva sits at 3.8 K/9.

    Carlos Silva does 2 of the 3 defense independent aspects of pitching well. He gets a lot of groundballs, which limits his homers, and doesn't walk many. That said, he more than most would seem to be a product of his environment.

    To be successful, Silva needs a strong defense behind him and a pitcher friendly ballpark. In Minnesota, he has both, but in Cincy he'd have neither. If you put Silva in GABP in front of the Reds defense, then I think he's in for big trouble.


    Twins Defense Efficiency Ratio

    2006: .687
    2007: .689

    Reds Defense Efficiency Ratio
    2006: .684
    2007: .679

    2004-2006 Park Effects
    Twins: 91 (9% harder in Metrodome than AL Parks)
    Reds: 119 (19% easier in GABP than NL Parks)


    The margin for error on guys like Silva is razor thin and I don't think he'd translate at all well to pitching for the Reds. Even with the advantages of a pitcher's park and a solid defense, he's had some very poor seasons.

    Carlos Silva's WHIP
    2002: 1.31
    2003: 1.48
    2004: 1.43
    2005: 1.17 <-- epically low BB/9 rate
    2006: 1.54
    2007: 1.31

    Silva's WHIP is already questionable, but if you take him out of his pitching friendly environment and drop him into the GABP meat grinder in front of a suspect defense, then I think he'll be something close to Eric Milton Part Deux.

    As for Meche, I'll take him over Silva everyday of the week and twice on Sundays. He's always had tremendous stuff, but injury problems have made him inconsistent. He's show flashes of it and had some very strong 1/2 seasons, but never a full season. In 2007, he was finally healthy and able to maintain his peak level of performance over the entire season, which resulted in a tremendous year.

    2007
    Gil: ERA: 3.67, WHIP: 1.30, BB/9: 2.6, K/9: 6.5, GB/FB: 1.36
    Carlos: ERA: 4.19, WHIP: 1.31, BB/9: 1.6, K/9: 4.0, GB/FB: 1.57

    Given our limited resources, handing out multimillion dollar contracts to mid/back of the rotation starters is not a wise idea. Meche has always had top of the rotation upside, while Silva is a back of the rotation pitcher. I'd probably be willing to pay for Meche's upside, but not for Silva and "his pitch to contact"/"team dependent" style.

    But, just my $.02.
    Last edited by 11BarryLarkin11; 10-07-2007 at 03:24 PM.

  4. #33
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: Rotoworld Projects the Reds 2008 Roster

    First 3 starters for all 8 playoff team and how they were acquired:

    BOS
    1. Beckett - trade
    2. Matsuzaka - expensive FA
    3. Schilling - expensive FA

    LAA
    1. Lackey - drafted & developed
    2. Escobar - mid-level FA
    3. Weaver - drafted & developed

    NYY
    1. Wang - undrafted FA & developed
    2. Pettite - expensive FA
    3. Clemens - expensive FA

    CLE
    1. Sabathia - drafted & developed
    2. Carmona - undrafted FA & developed
    3. Westbrook - trade & developed

    PHI
    1. Hamels - drafted & developed
    2. Kendrick - drafted & developed
    3. Moyer - trade

    CHI
    1. Zambrano - undrafted FA & developed
    2. Lilly - expensive FA
    3. Hill - drafted & developed

    ARI
    1. Webb - drafted & developed
    2. Davis - trade
    3. Hernandez - trade

    COL
    1. Francis - drafted & developed
    2. Fogg - cheap FA
    3. Jiminez - nondrafted FA & developed

    Now, I'm going to say this "proves" anything. However, I think it does underscore the importance of developing your own starting pitching. The cost of FA starting pitching is great, and the yearly variability so high, that it's just really freaking hard to build a staff around a free agent staff.

    I know that nobody is arguing we go out and spent $60M on a starter, but with Harang and Arroyo both getting reasonably expensive in 2009 and beyond, I think it would wise to consider the potential limiting effects of spending $8-10M on a guy who's absolute upside is league average and who wouldn't surprise anybody if he was replacement level. To me, that's the case for Eric Milton all over again.

    Look at that list and see who spent big money on FA starters -- Boston, New York, and Chicago. They could afford to do so. In fact, both the Yankees and Cubs spent Silva money on FA SP who won't make playoff appearances (Marquis & Igawa).
    Last edited by RedsManRick; 10-07-2007 at 06:30 PM.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

  5. #34
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    Re: Rotoworld Projects the Reds 2008 Roster

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    First 3 starters for all 8 playoff team and how they were acquired:

    BOS
    1. Beckett - trade
    2. Matsuzaka - expensive FA
    3. Schilling - expensive FA

    LAA
    1. Lackey - drafted & developed
    2. Escobar - mid-level FA
    3. Weaver - drafted & developed

    NYY
    1. Wang - undrafted FA & developed
    2. Pettite - expensive FA
    3. Clemens - expensive FA

    CLE
    1. Sabathia - drafted & developed
    2. Carmona - undrafted FA & developed
    3. Westbrook - trade & developed

    PHI
    1. Hamels - drafted & developed
    2. Kendrick - drafted & developed
    3. Moyer - trade

    CHI
    1. Zambrano - undrafted FA & developed
    2. Lilly - expensive FA
    3. Hill - drafted & developed

    ARI
    1. Webb - drafted & developed
    2. Davis - trade
    3. Hernandez - trade

    COL
    1. Francis - drafted & developed
    2. Fogg - cheap FA
    3. Jiminez - nondrafted FA & developed

    Now, I'm going to say this "proves" anything. However, I think it does underscore the importance of developing your own starting pitching. The cost of FA starting pitching is great, and the yearly variability so high, that it's just really freaking hard to build a staff around a free agent staff.

    I know that nobody is arguing we go out and spent $60M on a starter, but with Harang and Arroyo both getting reasonably expensive in 2009 and beyond, I think it would wise to consider the potential limiting effects of spending $8-10M on a guy who's absolute upside is league average and who wouldn't surprise anybody if he was replacement level. To me, that's the case for Eric Milton all over again.
    It could also show that the Reds have no desire to exploit the "Harang/Arroyo" competition window, and they might feel they'd be better served by trading both of those pitchers for the 2011 "rebuild."

    There's a serious risk either way. It's a serious decision time for this FO.
    Last edited by Falls City Beer; 10-07-2007 at 06:35 PM.

  6. #35
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: Rotoworld Projects the Reds 2008 Roster

    Quote Originally Posted by Falls City Beer View Post
    It could also show that the Reds have no desire to exploit the "Harang/Arroyo" competition window, and they might feel they'd be better served by trading both of those pitchers for the 2011 "rebuild."

    There's a serious risk either way. It's a serious decision time for this FO.
    "Serious decision time" huh? I take that you believe unless a team spends big money in FA, they must not be "serious". I'd say not taking a substantial financial risk on a borderline starter shows just how serious they are. Maybe they feel they've already made their significant fiscal commitments in the rotation and want to leave some money available to solve problems elsewhere -- like the bullpen or extended/replacing Dunn.

    You're right, there's serious risk either way. But I'd rather take a risk that leaves me the option to correct a problem later than one that ties me in to that choice for a number of years. If the Reds were to sign Silva, what odds would you put on him having an ERA under 4.75? I'd say less than 50&#37; given our defense and park.

    If you don't spend the money on him there are two outcomes:
    1.) Team lacks talent and you have to invest the money in talent later -- ie. any time you want to. There are starters of Silva's quality available every year. It's not like he's a 1 time opportunity. Slightly poor decision.
    2.) The team has sufficient talent and you have extra money to play with on adding talent elsewhere. Good decision.

    If you DO spend the money on him there are two outcomes:
    1.) He's puts up 200 IP of 4.25 ERA and the Reds are a .500 team, with limited payflex for the next few years. Good decision.
    2.) He's a bust and the Reds a .445 team. with limited payflex for the next few years. Horrible decision.

    They more concerned about building a sustainable winner than spending 15% of the payroll on a guy who could very well provide zero above replacement production. I'd be happy that we have a GM who doesn't want to put most of his fiscal eggs in a mediocre SP basket.

    You keep saying something to the effect that something drastic needs to be done, some big risk has to be taken or we'll never improve. To that, I ask, what big FA risk did the Twins take? What big FA risk did the A's take? The Padres? The Indians?

    Yes, a big financial risk CAN payoff. But it's not a pre-requisite to building a winner no matter how much you assert that it is.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

  7. #36
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    Re: Rotoworld Projects the Reds 2008 Roster

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    "Serious decision time" huh? I take that you believe unless a team spends big money in FA, they must not be "serious". I'd say not taking a substantial financial risk on a borderline starter shows just how serious they are. Maybe they feel they've already made their significant fiscal commitments in the rotation and want to leave some money available to solve problems elsewhere -- like the bullpen or extended/replacing Dunn.

    You're right, there's serious risk either way. But I'd rather take a risk that leaves me the option to correct a problem later than one that ties me in to that choice for a number of years. If the Reds were to sign Silva, what odds would you put on him having an ERA under 4.75? I'd say less than 50% given our defense and park.

    If you don't spend the money on him there are two outcomes:
    1.) Team lacks talent and you have to invest the money in talent later -- ie. any time you want to. There are starters of Silva's quality available every year. It's not like he's a 1 time opportunity. Slightly poor decision.
    2.) The team has sufficient talent and you have extra money to play with on adding talent elsewhere. Good decision.

    If you DO spend the money on him there are two outcomes:
    1.) He's puts up 200 IP of 4.25 ERA and the Reds are a .500 team, with limited payflex for the next few years. Good decision.
    2.) He's a bust and the Reds a .445 team. with limited payflex for the next few years. Horrible decision.

    They more concerned about building a sustainable winner than spending 15% of the payroll on a guy who could very well provide zero above replacement production. I'd be happy that we have a GM who doesn't want to put most of his fiscal eggs in a mediocre SP basket.

    You keep saying something to the effect that something drastic needs to be done, some big risk has to be taken or we'll never improve. To that, I ask, what big FA risk did the Twins take? What big FA risk did the A's take? The Padres? The Indians?

    Yes, a big financial risk CAN payoff. But it's not a pre-requisite to building a winner no matter how much you assert that it is.
    Where did I say I want them to shell out FA bucks?

    Why can't they trade? Has that option been removed?

    All I'm saying is that without some kind of push to acquire talent this offseason, they could fritter away their pitching competition window with Arroyo/Harang. That's pretty inarguable, yet you're trying to argue it.

  8. #37
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: Rotoworld Projects the Reds 2008 Roster

    Quote Originally Posted by Falls City Beer View Post
    Where did I say I want them to shell out FA bucks?

    Why can't they trade? Has that option been removed?

    All I'm saying is that without some kind of push to acquire talent this offseason, they could fritter away their pitching competition window with Arroyo/Harang. That's pretty inarguable, yet you're trying to argue it.
    Where have I said that they shouldn't acquire more talent? NOWHERE did I say we shouldn't try to acquire talent in the offseason. I did make a post saying that the Reds shouldn't take on significant fiscal risk to acquire mediocre pitching talent in FA. I'm sorry if you interpreted that as "fritter away the competitive window".

    The quickest way to fritter away that window would be to commit nearly all available fiscal resources while still failing to acquire sufficient talent to truly take advantage of said window.

    But if Krivsky has shown anything, it's that acquiring talent, even significant talent, doesn't necessarily require major risk. Of course, I might use the Conine or Lohse trades for prospects to restock the system -- a system finally bearing some fruit -- as an example of another way to add talent to the organization, but I know how that conversation goes.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

  9. #38
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    Re: Rotoworld Projects the Reds 2008 Roster

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    Where have I said that they shouldn't acquire more talent? NOWHERE did I say we shouldn't try to acquire talent in the offseason. I did make a post saying that the Reds shouldn't take on significant fiscal risk to acquire mediocre pitching talent in FA. I'm sorry if you interpreted that as "fritter away the competitive window".

    The quickest way to fritter away that window would be to commit nearly all available fiscal resources while still failing to acquire sufficient talent to truly take advantage of said window.

    But if Krivsky has shown anything, it's that acquiring talent, even significant talent, doesn't necessarily require major risk. Of course, I might use the Conine or Lohse trades for prospects to restock the system -- a system finally bearing some fruit -- as an example of another way to add talent to the organization, but I know how that conversation goes.
    You can pick up prospects AND help your MLB team; Beane does it all the time.

  10. #39
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: Rotoworld Projects the Reds 2008 Roster

    Quote Originally Posted by Falls City Beer View Post
    You can pick up prospects AND help your MLB team; Beane does it all the time.
    Brandon Phillips doesn't count? Josh Hamilton doesn't count? Did Jeff Keppinger appear out of thin air? What about Jared Burton?

    Kyle Lohse and his 4.58 ERA in 195 IP as a Red and he was run out of town by 80&#37; of this board. I don't know what they think they're going to get from a Carlos Silva.

    Scott Hatteberg was a low risk FA signing that worked out well.

    So, in terms of large financial commitments to players in FA, as per my specific reticence, when is the last time Beane committed 10% or more of his payroll to a single player? How did that work out for him. He spent $8.5M for 309 AB of .717 OPS from his DH this year. How did Esteban Loaiza work out?
    Last edited by RedsManRick; 10-07-2007 at 08:59 PM.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.


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