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Thread: Managerial search over. It's Dusty.

  1. #661
    Member Stormy's Avatar
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    Re: Managerial search over. It's Dusty.

    Quote Originally Posted by pedro View Post
    I didn't read the article but Keith Law doesn't really have track record of knowing much about anything as far as I can tell.
    It's an exceptional, if somewhat redundant, article. Those who have apparently decided to rubber stamp everything this Reds F.O. does would be hard pressed to effectively counter Law's contentions about Dusty's design incompatabilities with the current Reds' franchise.

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  3. #662
    Titanic Struggles Caveat Emperor's Avatar
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    Re: Managerial search over. It's Dusty.

    Quote Originally Posted by Stormy View Post
    It's an exceptional, if somewhat redundant, article. Those who have apparently decided to rubber stamp everything this Reds F.O. does would be hard pressed to effectively counter Law's contentions about Dusty's design incompatabilities with the current Reds' franchise.
    OTOH -- Law's point about Baker developing young starters is something of a nonstarter. I'd have to go back and compare notes, but I don't seem to recall either the Giants or the Cubs having prospects beating down the door when Baker was about.

    The point about walks is something that bothers me (in that I can't believe someone who has been around baseball as much as Baker has would say something like that), but its not like Baker was benching guys in San Fran for taking the BB.
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    Please come again pedro's Avatar
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    Re: Managerial search over. It's Dusty.

    Quote Originally Posted by Stormy View Post
    It's an exceptional, if somewhat redundant, article. Those who have apparently decided to rubber stamp everything this Reds F.O. does would be hard pressed to effectively counter Law's contentions about Dusty's design incompatabilities with the current Reds' franchise.
    You're certainly entitled to your opinion and while after reading it I'll admit that it's not the worst piece of tripe that Keith Law ever wrote the best thing I can say about it is, you're right, it is redundant. Dusty has his flaws but I honestly believe he's a better manager than many here give him credit for. You can call it a "rubber stamp" all you want but if the Reds had hired Joe Girardi I'd be hopping mad. Frankly I could just as easily say you've got your own rubber stamp, it just has a "no" on it instead of a "yes" and that certainly doesn't make it any more insightful, whether you think so or not.
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    Re: Managerial search over. It's Dusty.

    Quote Originally Posted by pedro View Post
    You're certainly entitled to your opinion and while after reading it I'll admit that it's not the worst piece of tripe that Keith Law ever wrote the best thing I can say about it is, you're right, it is redundant. Dusty has his flaws but I honestly believe he's a better manager than many here give him credit for. You can call it a "rubber stamp" all you want but if the Reds had hired Joe Girardi I'd be hopping mad. Frankly I could just as easily say you've got your own rubber stamp, it just has a "no" on it instead of a "yes" and that certainly doesn't make it any more insightful, whether you think so or not.
    I think people can legitimately not like the hire for some insightful reasons.
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  6. #665
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    Re: Managerial search over. It's Dusty.

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post
    I think people can legitimately not like the hire for some insightful reasons.
    Without a doubt. but I take exception to the idea that just because I don't hate it it's because I've decided to "rubber stamp" every thing this team does. That's a bunch of bull ****.
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  7. #666
    Posting in Dynarama M2's Avatar
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    Re: Managerial search over. It's Dusty.

    Quote Originally Posted by Stormy View Post
    It's an exceptional, if somewhat redundant, article. Those who have apparently decided to rubber stamp everything this Reds F.O. does would be hard pressed to effectively counter Law's contentions about Dusty's design incompatabilities with the current Reds' franchise.
    It struck me as trite and shallow.

    Baker once managed the Giants too, in fact he spent most of his managerial career there, but it draws barely any mention from Law. His sole mention of Dusty's tenure with the Giants is to try to connect Baker to Russ Ortiz's shoulder injury three seasons and two teams after Baker last managed him. Apparently no one else in the chain of custody there could possibly have been responsible.

    Law's another who apparently can't be bothered to listen to what the Reds are saying about their immediate goals, namely that they have immediate goals. When Baker went to Chicago, Wood, Prior and Zambrano had already ensconced themselves in the rotation. There's a big difference between inheriting a staff of young major league pitchers and a franchise with young wannabe major league pitchers. With the Cubs, that's the team he inherited and the only real discretion he had was how much to use the kids, not whether to use them. In the cases of Bailey and Cueto, he doesn't have to use them and we've been told, literally, to expect the club to add pitching.

    It's not even sort of the same situation. So far as anyone knows, he's not being asked to win immediately with kids on the mound. Law's entire premise, that Baker's being asked to lead a rebuilding pitching staff, is beyond flimsy. Chances are his rotation will be Harang, Arroyo, Belisle and two guys not currently with the Reds.

    How will he manage a group like that? Law doesn't know because he's got a diatribe to write about Wood and Prior.

    Then there's the OB part of the article. Now, I'm a bit of an OB buff. I think it's the bee's knees. Yet if you look at the rosters Baker had to manage with the Cubs, it's not like he had a lot of OB to go around. As pedro noted in one of these threads, the Cubs have spent most of the last 60 seasons not getting on base very well, 2003-2006 were no exception. Baker wasn't exactly overflowing with compelling leadoff choices. You can make an argument that Todd Walker should have been the leadoff man in 2004-6. Michael Barrett could have hit second I suppose. In 2005 that would have put Derrek Lee and Aramis Ramirez 3rd and 4th. Then you'd have had five consecutive outs before they came up again. Matt Murton and Jacque Jones added some lineup depth in 2006, but Lee, Walker and Barrett missed significant time that season. What I'm driving at here is Baker didn't exactly have the machinery to construct a good lineup in those seasons.

    With the Giants, and I know Law wants to ignore this, Baker's M.O. was to hit his CF in the leadoff spot. When that was Darren Lewis, it wasn't such a hot choice. When it was Darryl Hamilton and Kenny Lofton, it was a pretty good choice. When it was Marvin Benard, it wasn't notably good or bad. That followed him to the Cubs where his CFs didn't do the job as well.

    Of course, Law extrapolates Baker's leadoff hitter tendencies into a bizarre point about Adam Dunn, Joey Votto (who unbeknownst to Law stole 42 bases over the past two seasons) and Josh Hamilton, none of whom profile as leadoff hitters. You see, Dusty Baker once managed Corey Patterson and Neifi Perez and that means he won't be kind to those guys. That he also managed Barry Bonds, J.T. Snow, Moises Alou, Jeff Kent, Will Clark, Matt Williams, Ellis Burks, Bill Mueller and Derrek Lee is immaterial.

    Now, I suppose Baker could hit Alex Gonzalez leadoff with the Reds and make my head explode, but I'll go out on a limb and hazard the guess that he won't do that. Brandon Phillips could get the gig, though I'd think his power would put him no higher than 2nd (and hitting leadoff could help him in the OB department). Baker could force someone to the pine to play Ryan Freel, though I'll believe that when I see it. It wouldn't surprise me to see Edwin Encarnacion hit up top. Though, dependent on circumstances, Jay Bruce could be your leadoff hitter next season. He's probably the CF if he's on the team and Dusty likes to hit his CFs in the leadoff spot. If so, my hands will be alternating between clapping and two thumbs up.

    That's what's missing from Law's "analysis." He's paying almost no attention to what Baker might do with the Reds roster. It isn't analysis, it's invective devoid of insight. It's the sabermetric Pavlovian dog reaction to Dusty Baker: Wood! Prior! Neifi! drool
    Last edited by M2; 10-16-2007 at 10:47 PM.
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    Posting in Dynarama M2's Avatar
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    Re: Managerial search over. It's Dusty.

    Quote Originally Posted by pedro View Post
    Without a doubt. but I take exception to the idea that just because I don't hate it it's because I've decided to "rubber stamp" every thing this team does. That's a bunch of bull ****.
    C'mon pedro, all those years of bemoaning the Reds management, front office and ownership and countless posts made in support of an analytic approach to the game, that was just you faking it. I bet you were wearing an "I love John Allen" t-shirt the whole time.
    Baseball isn't a magic trick ... it doesn't get spoiled if you figure out how it works. - gonelong

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  9. #668
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    Re: Managerial search over. It's Dusty.

    but I don't seem to recall either the Giants or the Cubs having prospects beating down the door when Baker was about.
    Nah... Baker didn't go with fly catcher Darrin Lewis or choose Rich Aurilia over Clayton... never happened.

  10. #669
    nothing more than a fan Always Red's Avatar
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    Re: Managerial search over. It's Dusty.

    Pitch counts are not pure science, at least not yet.

    Cyclone has tugged me in the direction of "more is worse", especially in the case of Bronson Arroyo this summer.

    FWIW, Dick Pole was on Paul Daugherty's show tonight (I know, but I was waiting to pick my daughter up from soccer practice, and I couldn't find anything else), and he was asked specifically about pitch counts. (And good for Doc for asking that question)

    The Reds pitching coach said that pitch counts are not written in stone, and that someone decided anything over 100 is abuse, and that's not right. He said that even 120 pitches is not always abuse, if a guy is not struggling at all. He also said that Dusty was absolutely not guilty of abusing Prior and Woods, and that some guys are just meant to throw more than others do. He specifically referred to Steve Busby as a pitcher who many thought would pitch for 20 years, and barely made it through three, and that it was no one's fault (I saw Busby's arm problems blamed on Jack McKeon yesterday, on this site).

    Some guys are horses who are meant to throw, can throw a lot and get away with it, and others are not; and no matter who their manager is, they will be accused of abusing them. Science and stats have not yet reached the point where the "workhorse" can be identified.

    Any "horse" should be rode lightly until his workload can be safely established, and I think we're getting closer to that today than we were 10 years ago.

    I think Dick Pole is right about one thing- 100 pitches is an arbitrary number- by itself it means nothing. Applied to individual pitchers, it can either mean a light, normal or extreme workload, depending upon the arm in question.

  11. #670
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    Re: Managerial search over. It's Dusty.

    Quote Originally Posted by M2 View Post
    C'mon pedro, all those years of bemoaning the Reds management, front office and ownership and countless posts made in support of an analytic approach to the game, that was just you faking it. I bet you were wearing an "I love John Allen" t-shirt the whole time.
    Nope... it's his small of the back tattoo... it's written in the noodle of a Three Way that takes up most of his back.

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    Re: Managerial search over. It's Dusty.

    Quote Originally Posted by M2 View Post
    It's the sabermetric Pavlovian dog reaction to Dusty Baker: Wood! Prior! Neifi! drool
    I agree that the piece was consonant with the fluff pieces that float around such nebulous things as manager-hirings.

    Find target upon which to grind axe. Team hires target. Grind.

    Riggleman and Baylor were just as guilty of shredding Wood's arm as anyone...but hey, it fits neatly into a narrative, so grind away.

  13. #672
    Designated Threadkiller LincolnparkRed's Avatar
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    Re: Managerial search over. It's Dusty.

    Quote Originally Posted by Falls City Beer View Post
    Riggleman and Baylor were just as guilty of shredding Wood's arm as anyone...but hey, it fits neatly into a narrative, so grind away.
    I think Wood was his own grinding wheel in the case of his arm. I would still hear Steve Stone talking about what awful mechanics he has, even after he left the Cubs booth he would do a radio show or two here in Chicago and every time there is a Wood injury (often enough) you would hear Stone's I told you so voice opining on his awful pitching motion.
    Climbing down from the bridge, but keeping the torch lit until Dusty's fate is settled

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    Re: Managerial search over. It's Dusty.

    Quote Originally Posted by LincolnparkRed View Post
    I think Wood was his own grinding wheel in the case of his arm. I would still hear Steve Stone talking about what awful mechanics he has, even after he left the Cubs booth he would do a radio show or two here in Chicago and every time there is a Wood injury (often enough) you would hear Stone's I told you so voice opining on his awful pitching motion.
    No doubt.

    But I remember Riggleman riding Wood like a circus donkey down the stretch in 98.

  15. #674
    Please come again pedro's Avatar
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    Re: Managerial search over. It's Dusty.

    Quote Originally Posted by M2 View Post
    C'mon pedro, all those years of bemoaning the Reds management, front office and ownership and countless posts made in support of an analytic approach to the game, that was just you faking it. I bet you were wearing an "I love John Allen" t-shirt the whole time.
    I'm proud of those shirts. I really am. Screened 'em up in my basement myself. And while I know that Johnny's photo shopped smile looks a little insincere I just can't for the life of me understand why no one else wanted one.
    Get your nunchucks and the keys to your dad's car. I know where we can get a gun

  16. #675
    Member OnBaseMachine's Avatar
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    Re: Managerial search over. It's Dusty.

    Quote Originally Posted by pedro View Post
    I'm proud of those shirts. I really am. Screened 'em up in my basement myself. And while I know that Johnny's photo shopped smile looks a little insincere I just can't for the life of me understand why no one else wanted one.
    I'm sure RedRead would love one.


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