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Thread: Just Say No...to Dusty!!!

  1. #16
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Just Say No...to Dusty!!!

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    He abhors playing young guys until they absolutely prove that they are better... assuming they get a chance to do so.

    He's been accused with not listening to both Chad Fox and Robb Nen when they said they couldn't pitch -- both of their careers ended early due to injury.

    He has a completely lack of understanding when it comes to sample size. He'll start the guy who's 2 for 5 against a pitcher ahead of the normal starter who is 15 for 50.

    He's a slave to "conventional" thinking, using lefties as LOOGYs in approriately and pinch hitting a crappy hitter for a good one to take advantage of a non-existent platoon (especially if it's a vet for a young guy).

    Using Juan Pierre and Tony Womack as "double leadoff guys" should tell you all you need to know.

    If Dusty comes in, bet on a lot of Freel at 3rd and Cantu at first with Stanton as the primary setup guy. Arroyo will be injured by July.

    Thanks Rick. You just put me on suicide watch.

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  3. #17
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    Re: Just Say No...to Dusty!!!

    Quote Originally Posted by flyer85 View Post
    are there other issues with Dusty besides his tendency to overwork his starters?
    Just from 2004:

    http://www.baseballprospectus.com/ar...articleid=2669

    "I think walks are overrated unless you can run... If you get a walk and put the pitcher in a stretch, that helps. But the guy who walks and can't run, most of the time they're clogging up the bases for somebody who can run." --Dusty Baker

    "Who's been the champions the last seven, eight years? ...Have you ever heard the Yankees talk about on-base percentage and walks? Walks help. But you ain't going to walk across the plate. You're going to hit across the plate. That's the school I come from." --Baker

    BTW, here's what Brian Cashman had to say in 2002:

    "The intent was to have a collection of guys with a high on-base percentage and a high slugging percentage, and that would lead to a lot of runs scored." --Brian Cashman, Yankees GM, on off-season acquisitions

    Back to Baker...

    "It's called hitting, and it ain't called walking. Do you ever see the top 10 walking? You see top 10 batting average. A lot of those top 10 do walk. But the name of the game is to hit." --Baker

    "It depends where he is in the order... If he's in the top one or two, the most important stat is runs scored and on-base percentage. For your third, fourth and fifth hitter, it's RBIs and runs scored. And runners in scoring position, what your average is." --Baker, on what are the most important offensive statistics

    "Then, you hope again your seventh hitter is a good clutch man and drives in more than he scores. Your eighth hitter, you hope he drives in some key runs and scores fewer runs than he drives in. That's the guy where you need a higher on-base percentage because he gets the pitcher to the plate. That's my little-basics stuff." --Baker

    And finally, Baker on pitcher abuse:

    "Sooner or later, somebody is going to get hurt, and then they are going to blow it all out of proportion... But go back and look at the overall picture. For a guy who is supposed to have run pitchers into the ground, look around and see our track record of how healthy our pitchers have stayed. Who has had healthier pitchers?" --Baker, on his handling of young pitchers

    Wood and Prior combine for 422.1 IP in 2003 and 24 starts of 120 or more pitches thrown (six starts at 130 or more). In 2004, the young flamethrowing combo produces a combined 259 Innings. From 2004 to current, Kerry Wood has produced exactly 39 more Innings in four seasons than he did in 2003 alone.

    If Baker's only issue was pushing talented young pitchers to destructive pitch counts all too consistently, I wouldn't want him around. But compound that with his complete misunderstanding of how offensive baseball works and you've got about the least preferable potential manager on the face of the planet.
    Last edited by SteelSD; 10-12-2007 at 11:45 AM.
    "The problem with strikeouts isn't that they hurt your team, it's that they hurt your feelings..." --Rob Neyer

    "The single most important thing for a hitter is to get a good pitch to hit. A good hitter can hit a pitch that’s over the plate three times better than a great hitter with a ball in a tough spot.”
    --Ted Williams

  4. #18
    He has the Evil Eye! flyer85's Avatar
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    Re: Just Say No...to Dusty!!!

    I'm with Doug, good thing I don't have access to the roof of my building.
    What are you, people? On dope? - Mr Hand

  5. #19
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    Re: Just Say No...to Dusty!!!

    People act as if Baker's blind spots can't be corrected. They can. Look, he's a smart guy, and he's got to know by now that things like OBP and pitch counts matter. For people in the industry, these notions have become de rigueur -- commonly known and accepted. It's not outsider knowledge any more. If Baker refutes it, he ain't getting a job.

    What he has always possessed, though, are qualities you can't teach -- leadership, drive, the ability to communicate -- and it's that stuff (combined with his track record as a manager and player) that gets players' attention and respect.

    Again -- if he's so clueless, why did he win so much?
    "Baseball is a very, very complex business. It's more of a people business than most businesses." - Bob Castellini

  6. #20
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Just Say No...to Dusty!!!

    Quote Originally Posted by lollipopcurve View Post
    People act as if Baker's blind spots can't be corrected. They can. Look, he's a smart guy, and he's got to know by now that things like OBP and pitch counts matter. For people in the industry, these notions have become de rigueur -- commonly known and accepted. It's not outsider knowledge any more. If Baker refutes it, he ain't getting a job.

    What he has always possessed, though, are qualities you can't teach -- leadership, drive, the ability to communicate -- and it's that stuff (combined with his track record as a manager and player) that gets players' attention and respect.

    Again -- if he's so clueless, why did he win so much?
    For the same reason all managers win or don't win.... talent.

  7. #21
    He has the Evil Eye! flyer85's Avatar
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    Re: Just Say No...to Dusty!!!

    Quote Originally Posted by lollipopcurve View Post
    Again -- if he's so clueless, why did he win so much?
    good players?

    It's why I am not a huge fan of Torre. Joe won in NY because he had the best teams. I believe a manager only has a minimal impact and talent is by far the biggest factor in the winning equation. That being said the Reds need to find a manager that will be worth a couple of wins, and stay away from ones that will cost a couple of wins.
    What are you, people? On dope? - Mr Hand

  8. #22
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Just Say No...to Dusty!!!

    Quote Originally Posted by flyer85 View Post
    good players?

    It's why I am not a huge fan of Torre. Joe won in NY because he had the best teams. I believe a manager only has a minimal impact and talent is by far the biggest factor in the winning equation. That being said the Reds need to find a manager that will be worth a couple of wins, and stay away from ones that will cost a couple of wins.
    Which comes back to Baker. How many wins did he cost the Cubs in the next few seasons due to what he did to Prior and Wood in 2003?

  9. #23
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    Re: Just Say No...to Dusty!!!

    For the same reason all managers win or don't win.... talent.
    So why bother worrying about who the manager is?
    "Baseball is a very, very complex business. It's more of a people business than most businesses." - Bob Castellini

  10. #24
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    Re: Just Say No...to Dusty!!!

    Quote Originally Posted by lollipopcurve View Post
    So why bother worrying about who the manager is?
    Sort of my take.

    I actually think that, strategically, managers impact the final win-loss record of a team very, very little.

    But I do think that, emotionally, managers can impact a team in many ways.

    Dusty could help with the latter; or he could hurt with the latter.

  11. #25
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    Re: Just Say No...to Dusty!!!

    I actually think that, strategically, managers impact the final win-loss record of a team very, very little.

    But I do think that, emotionally, managers can impact a team in many ways.
    Agreed.
    "Baseball is a very, very complex business. It's more of a people business than most businesses." - Bob Castellini

  12. #26
    Making sense of it all Matt700wlw's Avatar
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    Re: Just Say No...to Dusty!!!

    Quote Originally Posted by lollipopcurve View Post
    So why bother worrying about who the manager is?
    Talent is the big key in any teams success, but look at the talent on Narron's rangers teams....

    Their pitching was suspect, but WOW......


    He couldn't do crap with them

    A manager CAN push the right buttons on certain teams....1990 comes to mind

  13. #27
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    Re: Just Say No...to Dusty!!!

    Quote Originally Posted by lollipopcurve View Post
    So why bother worrying about who the manager is?
    Becuase in Bakers history he doesn't play the best talent on his teams. He also has shown that he possibly helps lead to injured pitchers, which in turn deminishes the amount of talent a team has.

  14. #28
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: Just Say No...to Dusty!!!

    Quote Originally Posted by lollipopcurve View Post
    People act as if Baker's blind spots can't be corrected. They can. Look, he's a smart guy, and he's got to know by now that things like OBP and pitch counts matter. For people in the industry, these notions have become de rigueur -- commonly known and accepted. It's not outsider knowledge any more. If Baker refutes it, he ain't getting a job.

    What he has always possessed, though, are qualities you can't teach -- leadership, drive, the ability to communicate -- and it's that stuff (combined with his track record as a manager and player) that gets players' attention and respect.

    Again -- if he's so clueless, why did he win so much?
    Firstly, why would he now understand OBP and pitch counts when he didn't 18 months ago? What has changed? It certainly wasn't contentious stuff in 2006.

    He won because he had Jason Schmidt, a roided up Aurilia, Robb Nen and Barry Bonds. He won because he had Kerry Wood, Mark Prior, Sammy Sosa, Aramis Ramirez, and Derrek Lee.

    Even the worst managers can't turn a 98 win team in to a loser. But with our thin margin of error, I would hope we would have a manager who can maximize our opportunities -- not leave them on the bench or pitch them to the point of injury.

    Given that the manager likely doens't have a huge impact on W/L record, the failure to play/develop good young talent and the penchant for using your pitchers to the point of injury is quite possibly the worst qualities a manager can have because he screws up your future in addition to the present.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

  15. #29
    Be the ball Roy Tucker's Avatar
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    Re: Just Say No...to Dusty!!!

    Quote Originally Posted by lollipopcurve View Post
    So why bother worrying about who the manager is?
    Isn't that the Billy Beane theory?

    Pay attention to the open sky

  16. #30
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    Re: Just Say No...to Dusty!!!

    Quote Originally Posted by Roy Tucker View Post
    Isn't that the Billy Beane theory?
    Nope, he just wants a manager who is on the exact same paragraph and page.

    Anyone who thinks it doesn't matter who is managing is only fooling themselves and devaluing the human aspect of the game.


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