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Thread: Reds Prospect Rankings - A new twist

  1. #31
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Reds Prospect Rankings - A new twist

    Well for starters, Maloney can't hit 90 MPH on his absolute best day, while Cueto has hit 98 MPH before. Cueto also has several plus pitches with his slider and his fastball, while Maloney, at least as of the most recent scouting reports I have seen, have him with 4 average pitches with good control of them (which will get you good results in the minor leagues). Guys like Maloney don't see much success at the major league level without outstanding stuff. You can only fool people so much while working in the 85-88 MPH range.

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  3. #32
    Vavasor TRF's Avatar
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    Re: Reds Prospect Rankings - A new twist

    ok, a followup. If Maloney is sitting in the Dumatrait range as far as velocity goes, why do you think he was so much more successful a getting K's. Maloney's K/9 at Louisville was sick. Dumatrait never had any kind of stretch where he was K'ing 9 per 9 innings. In fact he never had that success at AA either, but Maloney did in 2 leagues.
    Suck it up cupcake.

  4. #33
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    Re: Reds Prospect Rankings - A new twist

    Dumatrait has the better arm of the two, but has no command or control or pitchability or whatever you want to call it. Maloney has a mediocre arm, but has a good idea of what to do with it. He's made it to AAA without his stuff failing him, so that's a good sign.

  5. #34
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    Re: Reds Prospect Rankings - A new twist

    What superdude said basically. Good movement and 4 different pitches combined with control of them will get you far in the minor leagues.

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    Re: Reds Prospect Rankings - A new twist

    If Maloney hits 85-88 with his fastball and has 4 average pitches with good control of them, could he be successful as a back -end starter for the Reds? It does not seem as if he has good enough stuff to dominate as a starter, but he could be a good 4th or 5th starter if he has 4 pitches with good movement, and control of them. We could use another 4th or 5th starter who can actually pitch.

  7. #36
    Vampire Weekend @Bernie's camisadelgolf's Avatar
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    Re: Reds Prospect Rankings - A new twist

    Quote Originally Posted by HokieRed View Post
    No Adam Rosales anywhere in the position players?
    Next year will tell me a lot about how I feel about Rosales. He's playing first base now, so it's important that he produce offensively (which he did this year), but his K-rate is unimpressive, and that's something I put a lot of faith in. If he duplicates his numbers next year between AA and AAA, he'd most likely be in the top-ten.

  8. #37
    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: Reds Prospect Rankings - A new twist

    Quote Originally Posted by camisadelgolf View Post
    Next year will tell me a lot about how I feel about Rosales. He's playing first base now, so it's important that he produce offensively (which he did this year), but his K-rate is unimpressive, and that's something I put a lot of faith in. If he duplicates his numbers next year between AA and AAA, he'd most likely be in the top-ten.
    I really think the 1B stuff for Roales was a chance to let his arm heal and to give the IF spots to other players. I don't believe that the Reds envision him as a 1B long term. If so, then I agree he belongs down on the list or completely off the list. I see his role as Ryan Freel with power. That is why I rated him as high as I did.

    I value guys like that can have real value to a major league team as opposed to a guy like say Stubbs who needs to develop a reliable bat in order to become an everyday CF. If that doesn't happen he becomes a speedy defensive replacement in the Dewayne Wise mold. Stubbs value is based entirely on him being able to do something that he hasn't really done in 2 years in the organization, while Rosales has already played multiple positions and his bat seems ok.

    I guess I just place more value on probability of contribution than on a dream of what could be. If Stubbs hits he'll be a better player than most of the guys on this list. Its too big an if for my tastes. Stubbs primary value to the Reds IMO as tradebait while Baseball America and the like are still touting him. OTOH, I think Rosales will be ready for a bench role before 2008 is over.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

    Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS

  9. #38
    Vampire Weekend @Bernie's camisadelgolf's Avatar
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    Re: Reds Prospect Rankings - A new twist

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    I really think the 1B stuff for Roales was a chance to let his arm heal and to give the IF spots to other players. I don't believe that the Reds envision him as a 1B long term. If so, then I agree he belongs down on the list or completely off the list. I see his role as Ryan Freel with power. That is why I rated him as high as I did.

    I value guys like that can have real value to a major league team as opposed to a guy like say Stubbs who needs to develop a reliable bat in order to become an everyday CF. If that doesn't happen he becomes a speedy defensive replacement in the Dewayne Wise mold. Stubbs value is based entirely on him being able to do something that he hasn't really done in 2 years in the organization, while Rosales has already played multiple positions and his bat seems ok.

    I guess I just place more value on probability of contribution than on a dream of what could be. If Stubbs hits he'll be a better player than most of the guys on this list. Its too big an if for my tastes. Stubbs primary value to the Reds IMO as tradebait while Baseball America and the like are still touting him. OTOH, I think Rosales will be ready for a bench role before 2008 is over.
    That's fair. When Rosales' arm heals, what do you see as his primary position? It seems as if he has a heck of a bat for a shortstop. One thing I didn't mention is that in 2006, Rosales didn't look very good. When I have the time, I'll check the BABIP differentials between '06 and '07. If I can expect more of the 2007 numbers, like I said, I'll rank him higher.

    As for Stubbs, he walks a little more than Rosales, and his K/BB ratio is nearly the same, so to say Rosales is above Stubbs in prospect status at this juncture is difficult for me to accept.

  10. #39
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    Re: Reds Prospect Rankings - A new twist

    I think I remember from the box that Rosales played SS in his first AFL game.

  11. #40
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    Re: Reds Prospect Rankings - A new twist

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    I value guys like that can have real value to a major league team as opposed to a guy like say Stubbs who needs to develop a reliable bat in order to become an everyday CF. If that doesn't happen he becomes a speedy defensive replacement in the Dewayne Wise mold. Stubbs value is based entirely on him being able to do something that he hasn't really done in 2 years in the organization, while Rosales has already played multiple positions and his bat seems ok.
    Drew Stubbs had an .880 OPS from July until the end of the season, a stretch that was 250 plate appearances. While he hit poorly for the first part of the year, something obviously changed (and no, I don't think it was the choking up thing, as in his previous 125 plate appearances he had an OPS of .925). Obviously he needs to carry that forward, but he has shown the ability to do it. As for Rosales, I have heard that his arm is doing better now, although I don't know the reliability of that fully. I don't know if he will ever play shortstop for more than a fill in type at a major league level, but I would bet he could play another position up there.

    I guess I just place more value on probability of contribution than on a dream of what could be. If Stubbs hits he'll be a better player than most of the guys on this list. Its too big an if for my tastes. Stubbs primary value to the Reds IMO as tradebait while Baseball America and the like are still touting him. OTOH, I think Rosales will be ready for a bench role before 2008 is over.
    Guess thats where we disagree on Stubbs. I take a lot more out of his most recent 250 plate appearances, than his first or second, which came a while ago.

  12. #41
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    Re: Reds Prospect Rankings - A new twist

    My list goes something like this (if you're still rookie-eligible you are eligible for the list):

    POSITION PLAYERS

    1. Jay Bruce OF
    2. Joey Votto 1B/OF
    3. Drew Stubbs CF
    4. Daniel Dorn OF
    5. Juan Francisco 3B/OF
    6. Adam Rosales INF
    7. Chris Valaika 2B/SS
    8. Justin Turner 2B
    9. Chris Dickerson CF
    10. Craig Tatum C

    STARTING PITCHING

    1. Homer Bailey R
    2. Johnny Cueto R
    3. Travis Wood L
    4. Matt Maloney L
    5. Sean Watson R
    6. Sam LeCure R
    7. Daryl Thompson R
    8. Ben Jukich L
    9. Carlos Fisher R
    10. Alexander Smit L

    RELIEF PITCHING

    1. Jared Burton (still rookie eligible I believe)
    2. Josh Roenicke
    3. Pedro Viola
    4. Tyler Pelland
    5. Carlos Guevara

    BELOW A BALL

    1. Todd Frazier SS/3B/OF
    2. Brandon Waring 1B/3B/OF
    3. Kyle Lotzkar RHP
    4. Devin Mesoraco C
    5. Neftali Soto SS/3B/OF

    I only listed 30 guys (5 only for relief and rookie level) because after the Top 30, everyone else kind of lumps together. Until guys like Cozart, Reed, Ravin, Chiu, etc. start doing something to really differentiate themselves, I'll focus on the Top 30 guys in the organization.
    Last edited by Benihana; 10-16-2007 at 11:24 AM.
    Go BLUE!!!

  13. #42
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Reds Prospect Rankings - A new twist

    Quote Originally Posted by Benihana View Post
    My list goes something like this (if you're still rookie-eligible you are eligible for the list):

    POSITION PLAYERS

    1. Jay Bruce OF
    2. Joey Votto 1B/OF
    3. Drew Stubbs CF
    4. Daniel Dorn OF
    5. Juan Francisco 3B/OF
    6. Adam Rosales INF
    7. Chris Valaika 2B/SS
    8. Justin Turner 2B
    9. Chris Dickerson CF
    10. Craig Tatum C

    STARTING PITCHING

    1. Homer Bailey
    2. Johnny Cueto
    3. Travis Wood
    4. Matt Maloney
    5. Sean Watson
    6. Sam LeCure
    7. Daryl Thompson
    8. Ben Jukich
    9. Carlos Fisher
    10. Alexander Smit

    RELIEF PITCHING

    1. Jared Burton
    2. Josh Roenicke
    3. Pedro Viola
    4. Tyler Pelland
    5. Carlos Guevara

    BELOW A BALL

    1. Todd Frazier
    2. Brandon Waring
    3. Kyle Lotzkar
    4. Devin Mesoraco
    5. Neftali Soto
    GREAT list IMO.

  14. #43
    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: Reds Prospect Rankings - A new twist

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    Drew Stubbs had an .880 OPS from July until the end of the season, a stretch that was 250 plate appearances. While he hit poorly for the first part of the year, something obviously changed (and no, I don't think it was the choking up thing, as in his previous 125 plate appearances he had an OPS of .925). Obviously he needs to carry that forward, but he has shown the ability to do it. As for Rosales, I have heard that his arm is doing better now, although I don't know the reliability of that fully. I don't know if he will ever play shortstop for more than a fill in type at a major league level, but I would bet he could play another position up there.


    Guess thats where we disagree on Stubbs. I take a lot more out of his most recent 250 plate appearances, than his first or second, which came a while ago.
    Stubbs 2nd half is what got him on my list at all. I had dropped him off prior to that. I'm actually pretty excited about his progress in the second half and hope he shows us why everyone has him rated so highly. I acknowldege that if Stubbs hits, he is probably number 3 on the list. But until we see a break out year, I can't put him ahead of a guy who was .140 OPS points better and 2 levels higher.

    His "get on the list free" card expired after 2 below average OPS seasons in a row. I need to see it first at this point. I think where we disagree is that you have him high on the list for his ceiling and I have him ranked based on his floor.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

    Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS

  15. #44
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    Re: Reds Prospect Rankings - A new twist

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    Frequently we've had threads about the top 10, top 40, top 20 pre-season, mid-season, off-season etc. Much of the discussion ends up being a debate of relievers versus other players, low minors players with a limited track record versus higher level players and stats versus tools. To try and limit the side issues and to help focus the discussion on the players themselves, I've created my list going into the winter by separating the players into four categories: Starting Pitchers, Relievers, Position Players and Below A Ball level players. I've rated the top dozen of each. No real reason for choosing a dozen but here they are:

    Code:
    Rank	Starters	Relief		Pos Players	Below A
    1	Bailey		Roenicke	Bruce		Frazier
    2	Cueto		McBeth		Votto		Lotzcar
    3	Maloney		Viola		Rosales		Waring
    4	Fisher		Pelland		Dorn		Soto
    5	Jukich		Salmon		Griffin		Chiu
    6	Smit		Guevara		Francisco	Cozart
    7	Wood		Ruzic		Valaika		E. Del Rosario
    8	Lecure		Rojas		Stubbs		Mesoraco
    9	Thompson	Geronimo	Dickerson	K. Jones
    10	Ondrusek	Asadoorian	Perez		McKennon
    11	Avery		Lutz		Tatum		Ef. Rodriguez
    12	Gonzalez	Medina		Coats		Menchaca
    In the below A category, How do you rank Lotzcar and Frazier above Waring!? Waring has given every appearance of an absolute monster. He wins Billings triple crown, Pioneer league HR, 3rd in RBI's, 15th in BA. What about Bartles as well? Early on in the GCL--- which he dominated, and then did extremely well when moved up to Billings.

  16. #45
    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: Reds Prospect Rankings - A new twist

    Quote Originally Posted by gedred69 View Post
    In the below A category, How do you rank Lotzcar and Frazier above Waring!? Waring has given every appearance of an absolute monster. He wins Billings triple crown, Pioneer league HR, 3rd in RBI's, 15th in BA. What about Bartles as well? Early on in the GCL--- which he dominated, and then did extremely well when moved up to Billings.
    Frazier was the best combination of pedigree and performance in the Reds draft. Mesoraco had the Pedigree but didn't perform. Waring performed, but has a lesser pedigree (7th round pick I believe). The short season leagues are filled with guys who are dominant at that level and go on to be nothing special.

    Lotzkar (I misspelled it) is a 6-4, 200 LB, 17 year old who did pretty well and throws upper 90s. He had 1st round (sandwich pick) pedigree as well.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

    Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS


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