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NFL Week Seven Picks, Pats, and Apologies

Last Week: 6-7
Season: 55-34
Record Picking Redskins Games: 3-2
Against the Spread: 12-7-1
Lock of the Week: 4-1

Last Week’s Pats/Apologies: I am taking a “mulligan” for last week. I was on the road, tired, and not operating at maximum concentration levels. I am still counting the games against my record, but I didn’t even make picks against the spread last week. Haste makes waste—and last week, I posted with much haste.

This Week’s Picks:

Baltimore at Buffalo: My “upset specials” haven’t exactly been on target lately, but I have this strange sense that Buffalo is about to pull one off. Kyle Boller is bound to lose Baltimore a game at some point.

Bills 17, Ravens 15

Atlanta at New Orleans: Was the Saints impressive win at Seattle an aberration or a sign of a turnaround? We won’t know much more this week, as I don’t see Atlanta putting up much of a fight.

Saints 27, Falcons 16

Arizona at Washington: The Redskins defense might be the best unit in the league this year. Yet, they are only 3-2 and two of those wins were very close. So, why aren’t the Redskins better? The offense continues to make huge mistakes and they seem unable to execute any explosive plays. If Tim Rattay starts at QB for Arizona, expect a blowout. If it’s Kurt Warner, expect a tighter game. Either way, Washington should win.

Redskins 24, Cardinals 13

San Francisco at New York Giants: I’m sold: You don’t win four games in a row in the NFL by accident. The Giants offense is very good, and their defense seems to have rebounded from their miserable start. Right now, New York looks as good as any team in the NFC.

Giants 23, 49ers 17

New England at Miami: Hide the women and children.

Patriots 37, Dolphins 10

Tennessee at Houston: At this point, I’m not sure if the Titans are better off with Vince Young or Kerry Collins at QB. This is a total toss up pick: I’ll go with Tennessee because I like Jeff Fisher in these types of games.

Titans 20, Texans 17

Tampa Bay at Detroit: For some reason, I am very confident in the Lions this week. The Tampa Bay offense is beginning to slow down with their running back injuries and Detroit has had two weeks to get ready following their debacle in Washington.

Lions 26, Bucs 20

Kansas City at Oakland: I just can’t figure out how the Chiefs have managed to win 3 games this year—I just don’t think KC is a very talented team. Oakland, on the other hand, appears to be much improved from last year.

Raiders 22, Chiefs 17

New York Jets at Cincinnati: Ugh. Total desperation game for both teams. I don’t think either team has much upside at this point, but the loser can pretty much officially call it a season for 2007. I think the Jets are done.

Bengals 21, Jets 16

Minnesota at Dallas: Adrian Peterson is a star, but how long can he mask the Vikings other offensive deficiencies? Dallas got thumped last week, but at least the thumping came at the hands of arguably the best team ever (through six games at least). Cowboys will rebound.

Cowboys 28, Vikings 14

St. Louis at Seattle: I picked St. Louis to win the NFC West. Oops.

Seahawks 29, Rams 20

Chicago at Philadelphia: A borderline must-win game for both of these disappointing teams. I’m just not big on Philly right now despite the fact that they pulled off a win in New York last week. In contrast, I’m just not ready to give up on the Bears quite yet.

Bears 20, Eagles 16

Pittsburgh at Denver: I correctly predicted the Steelers to lose in Arizona a few weeks ago, and I have sneaking feeling that they are about to be handed their second loss of the season. Denver has looked dreadful so far this year, but coming off a BYE, I see them putting a nice effort together.

Broncos 22, Steelers 19

Indianapolis at Jacksonville: The Jags are hot right now, but Indy has had two weeks to prepare for this game. Jacksonville ran wild on Indy late last year, but this isn’t the same Colts defense that got thrashed that day. David Garrard has been a solid “game manager” thus far, but at some point, he’ll need to make big plays for the Jags. No way does he keep pace with Peyton Manning this week.

Colts 24, Jaguars 17

4 To Score

1. Bears (+5) against the Eagles. I’m just not ready to pile the dirt on Chicago quite yet.
2. Broncos (+3) against the Steelers. It’s not often the Broncos are home underdogs.
3. 49ers (-9.5) against the Giants. I like the Giants to win, but this spread seems a tad high to me.
4. Titans (-1) against the Texans. This is the kind of game Jeff Fisher always seems to win.