I agree. A pitcher this young needs to stay on the developmental path that increases his innings by 30 or 40 per year. Jumping back and forth is dangerous IMO. Cueto threw 138 innings in 2006 and jumped to 161 or so in 2007. These Winter innings tacked on has Cueto near 200 and seems a risky jump IMO.Originally Posted by dougdirt
I don't think the back and forth game or the big innings jumps should happen before age 23 and ideally age 25.
All my posts are my opinion - just like yours are. If I forget to state it and you're too dense to see the obvious, look here!
Cueto pitched winterball last year too, so he was actually over 138 innings last year too. I don't recall the exact number of innings, but 21 seems to jump to mind awful quick....
That's how the Orioles brought 'em along exactly that way for a long time. Doyle Alexander, Mike Garland, Mike Flanagan, Scott McGregor, Dennis Martinez, Mike Boddicker and Storm Davis all started off in the majors in the pen. Earl Weaver used to ease them into the rotation. It worked.
I'm not a system player. I am a system.
Maybe it worked because they were all good pitchers? Not saying Cueto isnt, but I don't think them coming from the pen had anything to do with their success.
I'm in full agreement with you OBM.
There's not only a chance for injury but Cueto will be worn out and running on fumes by the second week of June if they don't shut him down soon.
For me, using Cueto in the pen to start has more to do with keeping the innings load down in 08. He's carried a heavy load here in 07. (I'm starting to wonder if he's being showcased for trade....)
Of course, if he is in the pen, they should be real careful about how often they get him up.
Maybe, but the Orioles of that era were run by some of the brightest minds ever to get involved in the game. They did it deliberately, making no secret of their conviction that young starters need a transition period. It worked quite well. IMO, there's something to be learned there, especially given the lack of success in the game when it comes to bringing along young arms.
I'm not a system player. I am a system.
I think it might work better for certain types of pitchers.... Johnny Cueto just doesn't seem to be that type. Chad Billingsley for example seemed to benefit greatly from a move to the bullpen before coming back to the rotation.
Why would Cueto be different?
I'm not a system player. I am a system.
Just my thinking here, so take that for what its worth obviously. The bullpen thing seems to work for guys with control problems get more equipped to handle major league hitters. Even guys with just 2 pitches (think Joba Chamberlain for the most part).
Cueto on the other hand is not a pinpoint control guy, but he controls his stuff within the strikezone and has control of all of his pitches already.
I don't think Cueto would have as rough of a transition to the major leagues given that he has the stuff and already has the control part of his game down.
I'm guessing "not" is a typo in that sentence.
It's a fair argument that Cueto's control is so evil he may not need to transition. He could certainly be cut from the Yovanni Gallardo mold in that respect. My counter would be that:
A) I don't really want to see him in the majors until August or so (as I think there's a benefit to pitching a full season at an advanced level in the minors). So hopefully the team has a settled rotation by that point in the season.
B) It would give him a chance to test his stuff against MLB hitters in small doses. That way he can makes some adjustments and build confidence without having to go through 80-100 pitches in his first forays into the league.
C) Given his frame, I'd like to let him mature a bit more before I placed to yoke of a rotation slot on his shoulders, especially later in the season.
My general take is, while a BP stint might be unnecessary for Cueto, it probably won't do him any harm. Of course, if the Reds have a critical need for a starter and Cueto's the top dog in AAA, then he'll be getting the call.
Last edited by M2; 11-30-2007 at 01:18 PM.
I'm not a system player. I am a system.
No, its not. From what I hear is that Cueto is a guy who gets the ball into the strikezone, but isn't a guy who will hit the exact target that he wants.
I think a bullpen stint wouldn't harm him if it came at the end of the season, but I am not a fan of jerking yonug pitchers from the bullpen to the rotation due to the way your arm and preperation differs between the two things.It's a fair argument that Cueto's control is so evil he may not need to transition. He could certainly be cut from the Yovanni Gallardo mold in that respect. My counter would be that:
A) I don't really want to see him in the majors until August or so
(as I think there's a benefit to pitching a full season at an advanced level in the minors). So hopefully the team has a settled rotation by that point in the season.
B) It would give him a chance to test his stuff against MLB hitters in small doses. That way he can makes some adjustments and build confidence without having to go through 80-100 pitches in his first forays into the league.
C) Given his frame, I'd like to let him mature a bit more before I placed to yoke of a rotation slot on his shoulders, especially later in the season.
My general take is, while a BP stint might be unnecessary for Cueto, it probably won't do him any harm. Of course, if the Reds have a critical need for a starter and Cueto's the top dog in AAA, then he'll be getting the call.
My apologies for misreading you there.
I've read that comment by BA too. Still doesn't make a lick of sense to me as the natural outcropping of lack of command in the strikezone would be that he'd be hittable and have a hard time punching out hitters. Neither is the case.
Certainly, lack of pinpoint control hasn't been on on-field problem for him at any in which he's played (as opposed to Ricardo Aramboles who had that command problem follow him everywhere he pitched). My take is that perception might be skewed by Cueto having an unpredictable pitching pattern. Supposedly he's a pretty heady pitcher. Guys like that often put a pitch where you didn't expect it, which might seem like an accident to someone, even a scout, in the stands - causing the "He got away with that one" reaction.
IIRC, Greg Maddux got accused of similar things back in his early years. It took a while for people to realize that, no, that's exactly where he wants it.
Though if Cueto does have command issues that need fixing, I'd think that would argue for a bullpen transition period where he can hone that ability in smaller chunks. Starting would allow him to make 5x as many mistakes in a given outing.
I'm not a system player. I am a system.
Likewise, it would also give him 5 times as many reps to hone that skill.
My guess is that this is the most beneficial thing to the bullpen rotation.
As a starter, you can have 4 good innings, get beat up a bit in the 5th, and at the end of the day feel like you failed.
If those innings come one at a time, it's easier to recognize the successes and deal with the failure. Let him get comfortable trusting his stuff against major leaguers and keep his innings down for one more year while he's young and still filling out.
Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.
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