Hypothetical Draft Pick Question

[bucksfan2]

I was wondering this yesterday. Lets assume for arguements sake that the reds decide that they are going to let Dunn walk and take a run at Hunter. I don't want to start a debate on whether that is the smart move or not. What happens draft pick wise? Lets also assume that Dunn goes to a playoff team or one that just missed (Padres). Do the reds get a comp draft pick and then lose it? Or do they get a comp pick and the Twins also get a comp pick?

[lollipopcurve]

Assuming both Dunn and Hunter are graded as A level free agents (likely)....

Both teams' 1st rounders are protected since they finished in the bottom half of the league.

The Reds would get a first rounder for Dunn if a team that finished in the top half signed him, plus a supplemental pick between the first and second. The Reds would lose their 2nd round pick to the Twins.

If Dunn were signed by a team whose 1st round pick was protected, the Reds would get a supplemental pick between the 1st and 2nd rounds, plus that team's 2nd round pick.

[M2]

I still say it's up in the air that the Reds would offer Dunn arbitration, particularly if the aim was to take a run at Hunter.

The draft pick compensation would be a drag on Dunn's overall market and I'm guessing his agent would fight like a devil to make sure the Reds let him walk without any strings attached (unless someone gave him a blow-me-out-of-the-water deal prior to the date where arbitration has to be offered).

If the Reds want to re-invest that money in Hunter and Dunn's agent sniffs that out (not something that would be all that hard to do), then that's a whole lot of leverage. Basically it would mean the team doesn't feel it can afford both Dunn and Hunter in addition to everything else it might want. In that case, Dunn accepting the arbitration offer could be a catastrophic monkey wrenching of the team's offseason plans.

His agent can basically offer up two scenarios. One is the team and Dunn both go their merry ways. The other is the Reds offer arbitration and Dunn accepts. He'd be looking at an enormous raise (well beyond what his current deal calls for), which, with a good season, he could build on in free agency after the 2008 season. He also has a lot of control over his trade market if he stays with the Reds in 2008. If the Reds really wanted Torii Hunter instead, then they'd pretty much have to acquiesce.

[texasdave]

Just coming off knee surgery and with injuries always a possibility, why would AD take the risk of accepting a one-year arbitration offer for let's say 17 million dollarsj when if he turns down arbitration he can negotiate a free-agent contract of I would imagine at least 75 million. Dunn doesn't seem like the type of person that needs to squeeze every last dime out of a team. Also, I wouldn't think it is out of the question that he could turn in another season along the lines of 2006. So it would be a bit of gamble on two fronts for Adam. Personally, I take the 75 or so million long-term contract and forgo the one-year arbitration contract in hopes of making an even bigger killing. But that's just me.

[M2]

Just coming off knee surgery and with injuries always a possibility, why would AD take the risk of accepting a one-year arbitration offer for let's say 17 million dollarsj when if he turns down arbitration he can negotiate a free-agent contract of I would imagine at least 75 million. Dunn doesn't seem like the type of person that needs to squeeze every last dime out of a team. Also, I wouldn't think it is out of the question that he could turn in another season along the lines of 2006. So it would be a bit of gamble on two fronts for Adam. Personally, I take the 75 or so million long-term contract and forgo the one-year arbitration contract in hopes of making an even bigger killing. But that's just me.

I don't think it's much of a gamble, in fact I think it's the safer play. Scott Boras long ago established that the market works best for players when they maximize their annual cut (and he's had a number of players who've said yes to arbitration under similar circumstances). If Dunn gives his salary an arbitration elevator and has another big year (a good bet since he's in his prime and he'd be playing in the GAB), he'd be looking at something north of Carlos Lee.

Obviously if someone ponies up that kind of offer, he could pounce on it, but chances are potential suitors would wait out the Reds arb offer date. If Dunn's unencumbered that would certainly boost market interest. If he's not, then he's guaranteed a fat salary by accepting arbitration and he doesn't have to take the risk of shopping himself with draft pick compensation attached.

In this case, arbitration is the quickest path to easy money. It's also a mechanism for bigger money down the road.

Beyond that, the Reds can't afford him to say yes if that's their plan. It would force them into a set of either/or choices they hadn't planned for and it would add cost uncertainty to the payroll. Paying more for Dunn than the figure they'd previously agreed to would be a disastrous bit of business. Trying to cinch in those draft picks could prove a self-destructive overreach.

Mind you, I think the whole plan would be idiotic. You don't cut a big bat in his prime to sign a 32-year-old CF for five years. That's begging for trouble. If the Reds want to free up salary for a guy like Hunter then Jr. needs to be the contract they offload.

[camisadelgolf]

I don't think it's much of a gamble, in fact I think it's the safer play. Scott Boras long ago established that the market works best for players when they maximize their annual cut (and he's had a number of players who've said yes to arbitration under similar circumstances). If Dunn gives his salary an arbitration elevator and has another big year (a good bet since he's in his prime and he'd be playing in the GAB), he'd be looking at something north of Carlos Lee.

Obviously if someone ponies up that kind of offer, he could pounce on it, but chances are potential suitors would wait out the Reds arb offer date. If Dunn's unencumbered that would certainly boost market interest. If he's not, then he's guaranteed a fat salary by accepting arbitration and he doesn't have to take the risk of shopping himself with draft pick compensation attached.

In this case, arbitration is the quickest path to easy money. It's also a mechanism for bigger money down the road.

Beyond that, the Reds can't afford him to say yes if that's their plan. It would force them into a set of either/or choices they hadn't planned for and it would add cost uncertainty to the payroll. Paying more for Dunn than the figure they'd previously agreed to would be a disastrous bit of business. Trying to cinch in those draft picks could prove a self-destructive overreach.

Mind you, I think the whole plan would be idiotic. You don't cut a big bat in his prime to sign a 32-year-old CF for five years. That's begging for trouble. If the Reds want to free up salary for a guy like Hunter then Jr. needs to be the contract they offload.

I think that's exactly what bucksfan2 tried to avoid hearing. It's good conversation, though.

On a similar topic, I sometimes wonder whether it's better to trade a player for prospects or wait for his draft pick compensation. In the cases of Rich Aurilia and Scott Schoeneweis, I think it's better to let them walk. In the case of Dunn, though, I think you're better off with a trade. Draft picks are risky, and on top of that, when you trade for prospects in other systems, you should have a better idea of their capabilities, and you don't have to worry about paying their signing bonuses.