dougdirt's top 40

[Betterread]

What is your top 10?

I think the top 4 are very good prospects, Francisco has very high potential at a young age, but needs to address the contact issue, I think Stubbs has a lot of potential and is making solid progress but has some things to work on. Maloney and Valaika look like real ballplayers to me. After that I had Frazier and Turner (because they are proven hitters, but I don't know what position they'll play), but there are 5 other names that could be interchangeable with them.

1. Bruce
2. Bailey
3. Cueto
4. Votto
5. Francisco
6. Stubbs
7. Maloney
8. Valaika

9. Frazier
10.Turner

Dorn, Lotzkar, Mesoraco, Neftali Soto, Watson

[dougdirt]

I should probably wait for the rest of the list (Good Work Doug). But assuming the top 10 includes the big 4, Stubbs, Mesoraco, Frazier, Wood, Roenicke and Soto in some order, that would mean that Jose Castro, Jose Rojas, Phil Valiquette, Ben Jukich and Alex Smit didn't make the cut. I'd probably rank those guys ahead of Janish, Lutz, and Jones anyway. Castro in particular should be in the top 10 or 15 IMO. He is a guy with the defensive chops to play SS in the majors, showed a decent bat in the pitching dominated FSL (.318/.342/.383) and showed some promise as a 20 year old in AA. He at least looks like a defensive minded IF who isn't completely an automatic out. At age 20 that is a prospect IMO.

Castro, I felt comfortable leaving off simply due to the fact that I don't honestly know a whole bunch about him. Anyone coming from Boston or the New York teams, I am very wary of any reports on them I don't hear from guys I know.... and I hadn't heard anything on him. Numbers wise, he didn't blow me away, although he is young and at a high level. I didn't rank him becuase of that, not because of what he has done. Same thing with the Henry kid we also got. I left them off because of my own ignorance about them.

Rojas was in the 50 guys I selected before I started breaking them down. He just didn't make the cut. I am not big on relievers as it is, just due to their potential impact value if they aren't a bonafide closer.

Valiquette also was in the 50 mentioned, but if he is coming out of the bullpen for now, he didn't warrant a top 40 spot in my mind. If he is coming out of the bullpen next year, and has strong numbers in a full season league he will be right back in the conversation, but for now, he sits at the back end of the 40's with me.

Jukich has never done much for me. He has a good curveball, but he is very old for his level and only had decent success in a pitchers league that he was 2-3 years old for.

Smit worries me. His velocity was reported to be 4-5 MPH faster in Minnesota than it was reported when he was in Dayton this year. He was right ahead of Jukich for me, as I worry there may be something up with his arm.

I'd probably drop the ranking of most of the recent draft picks who have struggled (Stubbs, Mesoraco, etc.) and at this point Travis Wood would need to show some health and progression to higher levels before being in the top 10. I wonder what his trade value is at this point.

Stubbs has struggled some, but he has also thrived. I figure I will get some flack on where I rank him, but thats fine. As for Mesoraco, he struggled a whole lot, but at this point in his career, scouting reports outweight numbers big time, especially for a kid playing with two hurt thumbs most of the season as a catcher.

As for Wood, from everything I have heard, he feels very good and pitched well in instruction league. Thats all I need to know about him given what he has done in the past and his stuff. When you have a 20 year old pitcher who some scouts have said since he was 19 that he might have the best change up in all of the minor leagues, there is something very valuable in that, espcially if he carries a fastball in the 90s.

[dougdirt]

I think the top 4 are very good prospects, Francisco has very high potential at a young age, but needs to address the contact issue, I think Stubbs has a lot of potential and is making solid progress but has some things to work on. Maloney and Valaika look like real ballplayers to me. After that I had Frazier and Turner (because they are proven hitters, but I don't know what position they'll play), but there are 5 other names that could be interchangeable with them.

1. Bruce
2. Bailey
3. Cueto
4. Votto
5. Francisco
6. Stubbs
7. Maloney
8. Valaika

9. Frazier
10.Turner

Dorn, Lotzkar, Mesoraco, Neftali Soto, Watson

Solid list . Just a few things that we disagree with, mainly on Maloney. I can see where you could rank everyone else where you did though.

[HokieRed]

Just a technical question--are we still counting Bailey and Votto as prospects? I think Doug must be; otherwise I can't figure out who his top ten are.

[dougdirt]

Just a technical question--are we still counting Bailey and Votto as prospects? I think Doug must be; otherwise I can't figure out who his top ten are.

Yes, I am. Until they are no longer eligible for the ROY, they are prospects.

[Kc61]

Having read the full list, first let me congratulate Doug for a fine job. I thought that Soto was rated too high at nine. He's a non-shortstop who is getting a lot of credit for a hot start at GCL. He's got a long way to go before I'd put him in the top ten. Youth is on his side but I still favor prospects like Lotzkar and Francisco as well as a few others who are closer to the majors.

The other one that bothered me a little was Pelland. Guy is probably inches from the major leagues, has done well at AAA. Still a concern about walking guys but he misses bats. I think he is better than 21 in this organization.

Doug, you might consider a "best of the rest" list since the organization is so deep right now.

Once again, thanks for an interesting read.

[4256 Hits]

Doug,

Great list thanks for the read. Do you happen to have the breakout of which year each was drafted. Such as these players were taken in 2007 these in 2006......these by trade.

Just wondering things like how many Bowden players still hanging around and is there anyother payers for the 04 draft other then Bailey that have any chance of making the Reds.

Thanks again!

[Betterread]

Solid list . Just a few things that we disagree with, mainly on Maloney. I can see where you could rank everyone else where you did though.

And I really enjoyed reading your top 40. You justified every rating. Even though I might rank some players differently, your reasoning was logical and articulate. I particularly liked the scouting analysis of Wood and Mesoraco. The bottom line is that I learned something from you about a number of Reds prospects and I thank you for sharing your knowledge with this board.

[camisadelgolf]

I'm shocked by Keltavious Jones at number 40. I like him a lot (he is one of "my" prospects), but with the way he tailed off in Dayton, I'm not so high on him. I think his lack of size combined with him likely being a left fielder tells me he's kind of like Lenny Harris (a year or two removed from his prime) in the outfield. I hope I'm wrong and dougdirt know something I don't.

Overall, I think it's a great list (which is what I expect from dougdirt). There were some bold choices that I liked a lot (Roenicke as high as #10 and Hilde(n)brandt at #27, for example).

[dougdirt]

Having read the full list, first let me congratulate Doug for a fine job. I thought that Soto was rated too high at nine. He's a non-shortstop who is getting a lot of credit for a hot start at GCL. He's got a long way to go before I'd put him in the top ten. Youth is on his side but I still favor prospects like Lotzkar and Francisco as well as a few others who are closer to the majors.

The other one that bothered me a little was Pelland. Guy is probably inches from the major leagues, has done well at AAA. Still a concern about walking guys but he misses bats. I think he is better than 21 in this organization.

Doug, you might consider a "best of the rest" list since the organization is so deep right now.

Once again, thanks for an interesting read.

As far as Pellands ranking goes, basically I am not very big on ranking relief pitchers very high. I think their value is very limited unless they are a bona fide closer.

As far as Soto goes, this isn't why I ranked him at #9, but he did rank higher than Lotzkar and Mesoraco in the GCL Top 20 done by Baseball America, so some others certainly see something as well. He uses the entire field when he hits, and hits line drives all over the place. That is something I love to see in young hitters.

[SoTxRedsFan]

Awesome list Doug. I learned more about the Reds minor league system reading those articles than I did this entire season. Thanks a lot.

[bucksfan2]

As far as Pellands ranking goes, basically I am not very big on ranking relief pitchers very high. I think their value is very limited unless they are a bona fide closer.

As far as Soto goes, this isn't why I ranked him at #9, but he did rank higher than Lotzkar and Mesoraco in the GCL Top 20 done by Baseball America, so some others certainly see something as well. He uses the entire field when he hits, and hits line drives all over the place. That is something I love to see in young hitters.

Doug what have you heard about Soto from any scouts? I just watch his draft video and when I watched it it looked like he was a polished hitter. Probably a huge stretch but I watched several others and he just looked the best at the plate out of all of them. His fast start in Sarasota also sparked my interest in him.

It seems as the Mesorasco ranking is basically by defalut. Ranked high based on potental and draft position. I would assume the next 2 years are important for his development. I would doubt you see him playing much winter ball if any trying to get healthy for next season.

I think next season is huge for Stubbs. Do you think he will start in Sarasota? It sure would be nice for him to start moving a little faster than he already is.

[dougdirt]

Doug what have you heard about Soto from any scouts? I just watch his draft video and when I watched it it looked like he was a polished hitter. Probably a huge stretch but I watched several others and he just looked the best at the plate out of all of them. His fast start in Sarasota also sparked my interest in him.

I havent heard anything other than what I have read online about any of the guys that were in the GCL this year.

It seems as the Mesorasco ranking is basically by defalut. Ranked high based on potental and draft position. I would assume the next 2 years are important for his development. I would doubt you see him playing much winter ball if any trying to get healthy for next season.

Mesoraco is ranked high based off of his potential. He played pretty bad as a hitter this year, but it was really small of a sample, and scouting reports trump that big time at this point in his career. Toss in the fact he was trying to swing a bat with two injured thumbs and he gets a free pass from me.

I think next season is huge for Stubbs. Do you think he will start in Sarasota? It sure would be nice for him to start moving a little faster than he already is.

Next season is big for him, and yes, he will start in Sarasota unless he goes crazy in the spring and the Reds think he is ready for AA (although I doubt that happens because they really seem to push these guys 1 level at a time). The Reds have not shown that they are willing to push their college drafted hitters much. Only Rosales, Roberts and Dorn have made the jump from drafted one year to starting in Sarasota the next under Krivsky. I would like to see more of the college hitters skipping over Dayton than spending half a season or more in Dayton. I know that the Dragons have a great fan base and great owners, but I think it would be better for some guys to skip over Dayton (college wise only, HS kids can really use the benefit of playing in Dayton).

[AmarilloRed]

Alex Smit was not on your Top 40. Where do you have him ranked and could he make the Top 40 in the future?

[dougdirt]

Alex Smit was not on your Top 40. Where do you have him ranked and could he make the Top 40 in the future?

He could make it in the future, but I would like to see his velocity where it once was. His drop in velocity, I am worried that something may be up with his arm.