For Batters and Pitchers, what's the key stat?

[icehole3]

Im not a big believer in all the different stats, I feel guys who get a lot of doubles, triples, homers and RBI's are good players dont really care to much about all the "new wave stats", I guess Im an old schooler. If you were to educate me on all the new hip stats that are out there now, bring me into the 21st century, make me understand what's cool now a days...what is the main stat that you guys think best represents a minor league hitter that would be a cant miss prospect, in other words what is Jay Bruce or Johnny Cueto's one stat that probably makes them a cant miss top 10 prospect. Im just trying to learn thats all, my head is very hard.

[dougdirt]

There isn't just one stat to look at when it comes to prospects (even more so with prospects than with MLB guys) becuase minor league stats can be very decieving. Scouting reports are still #1 with me. Either things I read scouts say, or stuff I hear from scouts, or even stuff that I see myself (I am no scout at all, but I know what I like and what I don't like enough).

[camisadelgolf]

To be over-general, for hitters, I pay a lot of attention to BB/K ratios combined with extra base hits. For pitchers, I pay a lot of attention to H/IP and K/IP.

[icehole3]

Doug what the heck is a BABIP?

[dougdirt]

Doug what the heck is a BABIP?

Batting Average on Balls In Play. Generally for pitchers around .290-.310 is normal. Above or below is considered lucky or unlucky, although in the minor leagues if a guy is consistantly higher or lower than that it could be an indication of better stuff or just not good stuff or just a poor defense. You don't see it that often in the majors where pitchers can control their BABIP due to the talent level.

[kaldaniels]

Doug...I'm curious to what an actual scouting report hitter is like. Short and sweet...long and detail oriented???? I've never seen a true scouting report on a hitter/pitcher. Any insight???

[dougdirt]

Doug...I'm curious to what an actual scouting report hitter is like. Short and sweet...long and detail oriented???? I've never seen a true scouting report on a hitter/pitcher. Any insight???

Bat speed, description of his swing (be it level, uppercut), hands, hips, legs and how he uses them in his swing.... compact short swing, long swing... honestly, it all depends who and where you are getting it from. If you are getting it from a scout, its likely to be more detailed than if you get it from baseball america, who all they do is get it from a scout, but don't always translate it completely.

Scouting reports you get on baseball america are going to tell you a lot, but the details that actual scouts are giving to teams is a lot more than they can cover, and to be honest, some of it wouldn't make sense to most of us.

[Steve4192]

IMO, the most important stat when dealing with prospects is their age versus their level. A 20 year old just managing to hold his own in the Southern League is a lot more impressive than a 23 year old dominating the Midwest League.

The second most important stat is knowing the leagues norms for batters & pitchers. Slugging 450 in the Florida State League is outstanding. Doing it in the Pioneer League is mildly disappointing.

[icehole3]

(I am no scout at all, but I know what I like and what I don't like enough).

You like Bruce, you dont like Maybin as much??? So you like power over speed and defense?

[OnBaseMachine]

You like Bruce, you dont like Maybin as much??? So you like power over speed and defense?

Jay Bruce is a great defensive outfielder.

[dougdirt]

You like Bruce, you dont like Maybin as much??? So you like power over speed and defense?

Not at all. I actually do like Cameron Maybin. I just think he has a LONG way to go. His numbers are absolutely decieving. I don't think he could hit .250 with his current approach at the plate. If he doesn't start hitting more line drives, he is going to struggle. Think of it like this, last year in the MWL, Cameron Maybin had a line drive rate of 9% and he hit .304 with a BABIP of .415. Same league, same defenses, Jay Bruce had a line drive rate of 16% and he hit .291 with a BABIP of .351. Why would a guy with roughly had the line drives have a BABIP 65 points higher than the guy who doubled his line drive rate? Well its becuase he had 26% of his hits as infield singles (and that doesn't count bunts). That will not translate to the major leagues.

The problem with Maybin's approach is that he is hitting WAY too many ground balls (62% last year and 56% this year). Yes, the guy is absolutely faster than everyone on the field 95% of the time he steps onto the field, but hitting infield singles only gets you so far. I mean I think Maybin, based on his potential is probably in the Top 12 prospects of all baseball, so its not like I don't like the guy.... I just think he is still a very raw athlete who plays baseball at this point and has some work to do before he will be able to have success at the major league level.

[icehole3]

I have more repsect for Maybin game, guys who are speed burners can disrupt a pitching staff maybe not quite as much as a Jay Bruce can over a three game series but Maybin could cause some serious problems. I remember the Reds playing the Rockies this year and thinking Taveras is just creating havoc, they couldnt get the guy out, our infield defense maybe helped out a little but anyway his speed caught my attention. I see Maybin being more like that.

[icehole3]

Jay Bruce is a great defensive outfielder.

Bruce is a very good OF, he doesnt get to balls like Stubbs from what Ive seen and Ive seen Bruce about a half dozen times and Stubbs around a half dozen. Bruce has a cannon, Great defensive OF IMO is young Eric Davis and a young JR.

[Superdude]

Minor league stats are different than major league stats. "Tell all" stats like OPS are not as effective for judging prospects because players are changing and developing so fast. You can see vaguely how good a year a prospect had by looking at something like OPS, but it's specific stuff that allows you to project how a player may develop in the future. Here's some of the stuff I use...

K/AB is a good stat for predicting average. A guy who hits for a decent average at low levels, but is carrying a big K rate is likely to see his average drop as he moves up to levels where the defense is better and the pitchers don't allow as much hard contact. Brandon Waring is a great example of this. This becomes less of a rule the more you move up the organizational ladder though. The higher up you get, the more emphasis you can put solely on average. A guy like Jay Bruce strikes out a decent amount, but has proven he can hit the ball hard in and out of the park which helps keep his average up where it is. BB/PA is also something to look at for younger players. Even if it's not hurting them at the time, swinging at everything in rookie ball will probably lead to more K's as you move up to levels where guys can bury breaking balls down around your ankles with some level of consistency.

Judging power requires much more than slugging percentage and homeruns when you're talking about prospects because potential power development is tough to see in those stats. Here's what I use...

isoP: (SLG-BA)
XBP: (XBH/AB)

*isoP*: (isoP/BA)
XB/H: (XBP/H)

Slugging percentage is total bases per at bat. This gives you a nice picture of how much power a guy actually provided, but players with high batting averages have an advantage. isoP only counts bases reached past first base, so it's a better measure of true power. XBP is basically a simplified version of isoP where all extra base hits are counted the same. This sounds dumb, because obviously homers are worth more than doubles, but sometimes younger players haven't developed their homerun swing early in their career, and this metric gives them credit for consistently making hard contact. If a skinny 19 year old only hits 10 homers in Dayton, but has an XBP of over 15%, he's likely to add lots of power as he fills out.

*isoP* takes "true power" one step further. This measures how many bases a player reached past first base per hit. XB/H does the same thing, except the simplified version. If a guy bats .220, he's not likely to fair very well in the other power stats even if he does destroy the ball just because he's making so little contact. *isoP* and XB/H will give him his due respect.

[icehole3]

I swear I had to read your post at least 4 times but Im beginning to get the picture. Basically old school and new school are saying the same thing, I like doubles, triples and homeruns and you guys like them as well.