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Thread: Adam Dunn's 2007

  1. #1
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Adam Dunn's 2007

    With Dunn's extension picked up, I figured people might be interested in actually talking about him as a player again.

    Just a quick set of splits for those who might not have noticed:

    Adam Dunn in 2007

    First Half
    357 PA: .258/.356/.549, 13 2B, 24 HR, 45 BB, 105 SO (.306 BABIP)

    2nd Half
    275 PA: .273/.425/.560, 14 2B, 16 HR, 56 BB, 60 SO (.305 BABIP)

    In the 2nd half of 2007, Dunn made a bunch more contact and took more walks. He did not hit for any more power. Why?

    Looking for stats, scouting, etc. Is this a change we can expect to see in 2008 or merely a funny random distribution? Did he alter his approach? Did he get pitched to differently? Did he realize he might be a free agent and decide to try harder?

    Please no discussion of trades, defense, or the run value of strikesouts -- lots of other threads for that. This is about WHY Adam Dunn appears to be a completely different player in the 2nd half of 2007 and what we can expect moving forward. Let's see what ORG has to offer constructively.
    Last edited by RedsManRick; 11-01-2007 at 12:50 PM.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

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  3. #2
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Adam Dunn's 2007

    He did hit for the same power.... ISO slugging of .291 and .287... Those are nearly identical.

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    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: Adam Dunn's 2007

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    He did hit for the same power.... ISO slugging of .291 and .287... Those are nearly identical.
    Yes, but no more power. More contact. More walks. Same power. Are us stats guys wrong? Did Dunn really turn strikeouts in to walks and hits?
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

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    Please come again pedro's Avatar
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    Re: Adam Dunn's 2007

    Here's my theory. When Ryan Freel hit his head on the warning track it knocked "farney" loose who subsequently jumped into Dunn's head, thus making him a .270 hitter, just like Ryan Freel.
    Get your nunchucks and the keys to your dad's car. I know where we can get a gun

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    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Adam Dunn's 2007

    Well, his batting average looks a lot better at .273 rather than .258, but in the second half his .273 average is just 3 hits turning into out from being .258. That is not a big deal when you really think about it like that. As for the walks.... I can't really tell you, but I like it.

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    Vavasor TRF's Avatar
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    Re: Adam Dunn's 2007

    Is Dunn hitting fewer HR's say 8-10 over the course of a year more valuable if his BB rate shoots way up? He's still going to K up to 150 times likely, which will have the banana phone callers all over his butt, but good god... a .425 OBP! Thats quite good.

    But does our perception of his value change if Dunn *only* hits 35 HR's a year?
    Suck it up cupcake.

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    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: Adam Dunn's 2007

    Well Doug, that's pretty much where I was hoping to go with it. I'm sure we're going to hear a lot about how Dunn became a better hitter in the 2nd half. How he hit the ball the other way more and stopped trying to swing for the fences so much. In fact, he very well might have changed his approach. However, the result of that was not a better batting average. As you point out, that batting average difference is basically too small to mean anything.

    Slicing those splits a bit differently, a batter can either walk, strike out, or put the ball in play.

    First Half:
    BIP: 58.0% (HR on 11.6% of Balls In Play, 6.3% Doubles)
    BB: 12.6%
    SO: 29.4%

    2nd Half:
    BIP: 57.8% (HR on 10.1% of Balls In Play, 8.8% Doubles)
    BB: 20.4%
    SO: 21.8%

    So, while a lot of pundits will probably talk about how Dunn hit the other way and focused on his 2 strike approach, the result of whatever changes he made was trading about 1/3 of his strikeouts for walks. That's the result.

    So, there's been a ton of discussion on this board about what happens when you cut down on strikeouts. Well, Dunn gave us a great case study and I think the results speak for themselves. He didn't hit for a significantly better average. He didn't hit for more OR less power. He just walked a lot more often -- something I think we can all agree is a great thing.

    (His 2nd half SO% would put him around 140 over the course of a full season, FYI)

    Now, the question remains -- what did Dunn actually do differently that resulted in this change and can we expect to see it moving forward? Anybody?
    Last edited by RedsManRick; 11-01-2007 at 01:21 PM.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

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    Vavasor TRF's Avatar
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    Re: Adam Dunn's 2007

    Look even closer at his two best months pre and post ASB, June and August. Both were good power months and were his best BA, but the difference in OBP is nearly 100 points. Abberation? Sample size? Luck? Well he carried that OBP into September, so I think something has clicked.

    I'm betting that getting his knee scoped will also help him as he won't be in pain all the time. My son just had the same surgery, and stopped limping for the first time in almost 6 months 4 days after the surgery.
    Suck it up cupcake.

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    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: Adam Dunn's 2007

    But what did Dunn change? Is he fouling off borderline 2-Strike pitches that he can't really handle instead of taking them? Or is he expanding his zone a bit early in the count on balls he can handle, rather than forcing himself in to those bad counts in the first place?

    Some things I'd like to see:
    - P/PA in first half vs. 2nd.
    - Proportion of K's swinging vs. K's looking in each half

    My hypothesis is that Dunn did alter his 2 strike approach. Rather than take those borderline pitches which often turned in to strikeouts looking, he's fouling those pitches off. The result is that he's staying alive longer with 2 strikes leading primarily to more walks.

    I don't think he's making any better contact, but he's doing a better job at managing the strike zone. He's given himself another tool to manage counts. I'd love to hear some qualitative support and argument to that idea.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

  11. #10
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Adam Dunn's 2007

    This might be somewhat of a starting point for some Dunn discussion. I don't have time to look at it right now, but hopefully someone else does.

    http://baseball.bornbybits.com/plots/bat/Adam_Dunn.html

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    Be the ball Roy Tucker's Avatar
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    Re: Adam Dunn's 2007

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post

    Now, the question remains -- what did Dunn actually do differently that resulted in this change and can we expect to see it moving forward? Anybody?
    Swung at fewer out-of-the-strike-zone pitches?

    From my very subjective viewpoint, it didn't look like he cut down on his swing. Maybe waited on pitches a hair longer? He didn't seem to strike out on those low and outside pitches that he used to flail at before.

    What did it for me was that he did hit consistently over a full season. I think he is maturing as a hitter (whatever that means).

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    Re: Adam Dunn's 2007

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    I don't think he's making any better contact, but he's doing a better job at managing the strike zone. He's given himself another tool to manage counts. I'd love to hear some qualitative support and argument to that idea.
    This is also my opinion. I have always been frustrated by Dunn's two strike approach. It was not a question of why he couldn't but why he wouldn't. However, I believe Adam Dunn is now a more mature, responsible athlete. In 2007, he made great strides on defense and conditioning (see second half of 2006). I believe his two strike approach was part of the maturing of Adam Dunn...Becoming a father can do that to a man.
    "I am your child from the future. I'm sorry I didn't tell you this earlier." - Dylan Easton

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    Re: Adam Dunn's 2007

    I don't think he's making any better contact, but he's doing a better job at managing the strike zone. He's given himself another tool to manage counts. I'd love to hear some qualitative support and argument to that idea.
    My observation is that he did cut down his swing, especially with two strikes, and he did look to go the other way more. My guess is that his swing-and-miss percentage was lower and his hit chart shows more action to left and left center. While the differences between the first and second halfs may not be dramatic, I'm guessing that the differences in these two areas are pretty dramatic when you compare 07 and 06.

    My hypothesis is that Dunn did alter his 2 strike approach. Rather than take those borderline pitches which often turned in to strikeouts looking, he's fouling those pitches off. The result is that he's staying alive longer with 2 strikes leading primarily to more walks.
    Probably some truth to this. I'd add that by cutting down on his swing and waiting a bit longer (i.e., adjusting to hit the ball the other way) he was able to foul off some pitches that he would have missed before.
    "Baseball is a very, very complex business. It's more of a people business than most businesses." - Bob Castellini

  15. #14
    Vavasor TRF's Avatar
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    Re: Adam Dunn's 2007

    The numbers don't support that he changed his 2 strike approach at all. In fact, outside of full counts, his numbers with 2 strikes are abysmal with the highwater mark being 1-2 with a .426 OPS.

    No, I think he's being more aggressive EARLY in the count.
    Code:
    By Count 	AB 	R 	H 	2B 	3B 	HR 	RBI 	BB 	HBP 	SO 	SB 	CS 	AVG 	OBP 	SLG 	OPS
    Count 0-0	62	0	25	5	0	9	18	0	2	0	3	0	.403	.415	.919	1.334
    Count 0-1	40	0	18	2	0	4	16	0	1	0	2	0	.450	.463	.800	1.263
    Count 1-0	36	0	13	4	0	2	8	0	0	0	2	0	.361	.342	.639	.981
    Count 1-1	35	0	11	0	1	5	10	0	0	0	0	1	.314	.306	.800	1.106
    His stats when the count was full in 2007 was where we see a ridiculous change.

    2007:

    Code:
    By Count 	AB 	R 	H 	2B 	3B 	HR 	RBI 	BB 	HBP 	SO 	SB 	CS 	AVG 	OBP 	SLG 	OPS
    Count 3-2	59	0	13	2	1	5	17	55	1	33	1	1	.220	.600	.542	1.142
    2006:
    Code:
    By Count 	AB 	R 	H 	2B 	3B 	HR 	RBI 	BB 	HBP 	SO 	SB 	CS 	AVG 	OBP 	SLG 	OPS
    Count 3-2	90	0	14	1	0	5	10	48	0	45	1	0	.156	.449	.333	.782
    I think the only thing that changed was his numbers in full count situations, and that he's been a little more aggressive early in the count.
    Suck it up cupcake.

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    First Time Caller SunDeck's Avatar
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    Re: Adam Dunn's 2007

    I should know this and it reveals that I really don't pay enough attention to the Reds anymore, but was he batting in the same place both halves? Was there something external that could have caused him to get less pitches in the strike zone? Was the situational aspect of his at bats similar in both halves?
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