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Thread: Beane speaks about the future for Oaktown

  1. #1
    Box of Frogs edabbs44's Avatar
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    Beane speaks about the future for Oaktown

    Wayne, take notice.

    • Oakland GM Billy Beane said he will decide in the next month whether to supplement the core of his team or break it up. Beane said he is monitoring the health and rehabilitation status of several key players, including Eric Chavez, Justin Duscherer (whom Oakland intends to convert to a starter), Rich Harden and Mark Kotsay. "That's why we're at a fork in the road," Beane said. "We're either going forward and going for it or cutting it down and rebuilding. There is no middle ground in our market. When we hit the bottom, small market teams like us don't bounce." Beane said he would decide a course of action by the start of the winter meetings Dec. 3.
    http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/200...day/index.html

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    Re: Beane speaks about the future for Oaktown

    couldn't have said it better myself

    the fish also grasp this concept pretty well
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    Posting in Dynarama M2's Avatar
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    Re: Beane speaks about the future for Oaktown

    I really think that what sets Beane apart is his ability to get to a conclusion without undue bother. Other franchises could take a decade to reach the point where he starts.
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    Box of Frogs edabbs44's Avatar
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    Re: Beane speaks about the future for Oaktown

    Beane just expressed to his fans what they are dealing with and where this team could be headed. From a fan's point of view, I think that's awesome.

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    Re: Beane speaks about the future for Oaktown

    Quote Originally Posted by edabbs44 View Post
    Beane just expressed to his fans what they are dealing with and where this team could be headed. From a fan's point of view, I think that's awesome.
    Sort of like those on here that are requesting an idea of a plan from Wayne?

    See!. It can be done. And simply too.

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    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: Beane speaks about the future for Oaktown

    Quote Originally Posted by M2 View Post
    I really think that what sets Beane apart is his ability to get to a conclusion without undue bother. Other franchises could take a decade to reach the point where he starts.
    You know, it's funny. I have yet to hear a fan base complain about a true tear down and rebuild. I've heard lots of complaints about perennial mediocrity with little significant movement in either direction.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

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    Titanic Struggles Caveat Emperor's Avatar
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    Re: Beane speaks about the future for Oaktown

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    I have yet to hear a fan base complain about a true tear down and rebuild. I've heard lots of complaints about perennial mediocrity with little significant movement in either direction.
    I'd imagine that is because a true tear down and rebuild implies that the rebuilding is successful.

    Lots of teams tear down and their attempts to rebuild are scuttled, usually due to faulty plans and construction work. That leads to the perennial mediocrity you describe -- or, what I'd term the "small market treadmill" where teams are constantly running in place due to never bringing up enough talent at any one given time to make a serious charge.
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    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: Beane speaks about the future for Oaktown

    Quote Originally Posted by Caveat Emperor View Post
    I'd imagine that is because a true tear down and rebuild implies that the rebuilding is successful.

    Lots of teams tear down and their attempts to rebuild are scuttled, usually due to faulty plans and construction work. That leads to the perennial mediocrity you describe -- or, what I'd term the "small market treadmill" where teams are constantly running in place due to never bringing up enough talent at any one given time to make a serious charge.
    The problem is usually in the failure to truly tear down, which makes the rebuild impossible from both the talent and fiscal perspectives.

    The Royals and Pirates would just lose a star or two when the time came, creating an endless cycle, rather than really purging the roster of present day value for greater future value. The trick is to really increase the amplitude of the cycle, not just start the next wave.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

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    Re: Beane speaks about the future for Oaktown

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    The problem is usually in the failure to truly tear down, which makes the rebuild impossible from both the talent and fiscal perspectives.

    The Royals and Pirates would just lose a star or two when the time came, creating an endless cycle, rather than really purging the roster of present day value for greater future value. The trick is to really increase the amplitude of the cycle, not just start the next wave.
    That implies there's coveted talent to shed, though. The Marlins had a World Series-winning roster to break up. The Pirates and Royals have had the occasional star, and a whole bunch of dreck no one wanted to give much for. You don't create a wave with B/C prospects, however plentiful they may be.

    Speaking of the Marlins, they are absolutely an example of a fan base that had a violent negative reaction to a teardown and rebuild. In fact, I'd say the negative fan-base reaction to a teardown is normal across baseball, even if the strategy is justified. Maybe not among the cognoscenti of the fan base, but the rank and file tend to react as, "fine, get back to me when it's rebuilt."
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    Re: Beane speaks about the future for Oaktown

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    You know, it's funny. I have yet to hear a fan base complain about a true tear down and rebuild. I've heard lots of complaints about perennial mediocrity with little significant movement in either direction.
    Padres fans tried to sue the team for trading away Sheffield and others in 1993.

    http://query.nytimes.com/gst/fullpag...54C0A965958260

    Marlins fans were livid when the 1997 World Championship team was dismantled the following winter. And again in 2002 when Clement and Alfonseca were traded.

    Of course, in the long run, those fire sales all proved to help the team ride a future wave crest into the World Series.
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    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: Beane speaks about the future for Oaktown

    Quote Originally Posted by IslandRed View Post
    Speaking of the Marlins, they are absolutely an example of a fan base that had a violent negative reaction to a teardown and rebuild. In fact, I'd say the negative fan-base reaction to a teardown is normal across baseball, even if the strategy is justified. Maybe not among the cognoscenti of the fan base, but the rank and file tend to react as, "fine, get back to me when it's rebuilt."
    Fair point. I guess as long as the fans are going to complain about losing, I'd rather get it out of the way and be a competitor in 3-4 years than simply try to save face every single year without end in sight.

    I'd also question how much communication happened in those cases. Were the fans told, "here's why were doing this" other than a pure "we can't afford those guys, woe is us"?
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

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    Re: Beane speaks about the future for Oaktown

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    You know, it's funny. I have yet to hear a fan base complain about a true tear down and rebuild. I've heard lots of complaints about perennial mediocrity with little significant movement in either direction.
    I've heard plenty of A's fans complain over the years, they'll complain about this, you can count on it.

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    Re: Beane speaks about the future for Oaktown

    So I assume with this admiration of Beane's candor, that no one believes the Reds overall have a good core of ballplayers at their various fielding positions - not complete at all positions, but still a good starting point. I guess it surprises me with the supposed healthy skepticism around here, that Beane can do no wrong and the Reds are just fiddling. Frankly, I don't get it. There seems to be absolutely no credit given to the Reds for anything. But Beane says he might do either thing and he's hailed the conquering hero. Beats me.
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    Re: Beane speaks about the future for Oaktown

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    Fair point. I guess as long as the fans are going to complain about losing, I'd rather get it out of the way and be a competitor in 3-4 years than simply try to save face every single year without end in sight.
    Well, so would I. But truthfully, I don't think every season has to be approached as if the only choices are all-in or fold, and in reality few teams act that way. Peaks and valleys are better than flat mediocrity, but it can be overdone.

    I'd also question how much communication happened in those cases. Were the fans told, "here's why were doing this" other than a pure "we can't afford those guys, woe is us"?
    I think Cleveland and Shapiro did a very nice job of explaining it several years ago, but half their fans went away all the same and still haven't approached previous levels even though they regained their competitive footing astonishingly quickly.
    Not all who wander are lost

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    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: Beane speaks about the future for Oaktown

    Quote Originally Posted by IslandRed View Post
    I think Cleveland and Shapiro did a very nice job of explaining it several years ago, but half their fans went away all the same and still haven't approached previous levels even though they regained their competitive footing astonishingly quickly.
    And I would argue that if you don't win, the fans are going to go away anyways. Losing 95 games does no more harm than losing 85.

    The goal needs to be "how do we get to be a 90 win team?" not "how do we draw as many fans as possible while rebuilding". It's counter-intuitive, but stop paying attention to attendance figures and public outcry and just build a winning team. I promise, the fans will come back when you start winning again.

    So stop trying to save face with 82 win dead-end seasons and actually rebuild the darn thing. Outside of Wrigley, there's no money to be made in losing with a smile and a "well, we tried" motto.
    Last edited by RedsManRick; 11-08-2007 at 08:25 PM.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.


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