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Thread: The Value of our 2007 Cincinnati Reds

  1. #1
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    The Value of our 2007 Cincinnati Reds

    Justin over at http://jinaz-reds.blogspot.com has finished up his look at the non pitchers on the roster and used a series of articles to determine and evaluate the players and what their overall value was. You can view the entire post by going to his website and the actual link to this post is http://jinaz-reds.blogspot.com/2007/...on-player.html

    Basically, the conclusion breaks it down to this chart which shows the overall value of each of the players and what they brought to the Reds.

    Code:
    Name	        POS	RAR	TtlFld	TotalValue
    B Phillips	2B	30.2	9.2	39.4
    A Dunn	        LF      51.3	-14.9	36.4
    K Griffey Jr.	RF	36.4	-10.4	26
    J Hamilton	CF	25.2	-0.2	25
    S Hatteberg	1B	26.9	-5.5	21.4
    A Gonzalez	SS	13.3	6.2	19.5
    J Keppinger	SS	17.1	0	17.1
    N Hopper	CF	10.8	6.8	17.6
    EEncarnacion	3B	24.8	-8.2	16.7
    D Ross	        C	-4.6	12.3	7.7
    J Valentin	C	3.2	-0.1	3.1
    J Cantu	        1B	3.8	-1.4	2.4
    J Votto     	1B	7.3	-4.1	3.2
    R Freel	        CF	-0.2	2.5	2.2
    D Wise	        CF	0.3	0.6	0.9
    J Conine	1B	4.6	-3.4	1.2
    R Jorgensen	C	0.4	0	0.4
    R Hanigan	C	0.3	0	0.3
    J Ellison	RF	-1.8	1.8	0
    E Cruz	        SS	-0.2	-0.7	-1
    M Bellhorn	3B	-1.4	0	-1.3
    B Coats	        RF	-1.4	-0.4	-1.8
    P Lopez	        SS	-3.6	-0.4	-4.1
    C Moeller	C	-4.8	-0.3	-5.1
    J Castro	SS	-8.2	-1.3	-9.4
    Just thought it could spark some good conversation about players, their value and possibilties for the offseason.

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    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: The Value of our 2007 Cincinnati Reds

    For what it's worth, by Justin's methodology, our position players added 230 runs above replacement at the plate, and cost us 12 runs below average (which is replacement for defense) in the field.

    That puts a replacement level offense in the 550 run neighborhood (pitchers not being counted), which strikes me as a pretty fair assessment.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

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    Re: The Value of our 2007 Cincinnati Reds

    Griffey a better RF than Dunn a LF? Nonsense. Seriously. Garbage. Griffey is the worst outfielder in baseball. Bar none.

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    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: The Value of our 2007 Cincinnati Reds

    Quote Originally Posted by Falls City Beer View Post
    Griffey a better RF than Dunn a LF? Nonsense. Seriously. Garbage. Griffey is the worst outfielder in baseball. Bar none.
    Sorry FCB, but Justin's methodology is just a touch better than yours.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

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    Re: The Value of our 2007 Cincinnati Reds

    Quote Originally Posted by Falls City Beer View Post
    Griffey a better RF than Dunn a LF? Nonsense. Seriously. Garbage. Griffey is the worst outfielder in baseball. Bar none.
    Apparently he isn't. When did you sit down and watch EVERY outfielder in baseball by the way? Its just a silly comment to make unless you have actually put the time in to come to that conclusion or you have someone else who has backing up your claim.

    To expand a little further, Adam Dunn is one of the 5 worst defensie players relative to his peers in all of baseball. Griffey isn't even rated as one of the 5 worst right fielders in baseball. This is all according to the Fielding Bible for 2007 that just had its information come out. Griffey is still below average out there, but nowhere near the tune that Dunn was in LF.

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    Re: The Value of our 2007 Cincinnati Reds

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    Sorry FCB, but Justin's methodology is just a touch better than yours.
    Did I say anything about methodology?

    I said Griffey's worse than Dunn as an outfielder. I agree with a lot of what he says, but something is amiss if the argument is that Dunn's worse than Griffey as an OF. Really, just watch one game.

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    Re: The Value of our 2007 Cincinnati Reds

    Quote Originally Posted by Falls City Beer View Post
    Did I say anything about methodology?

    I said Griffey's worse than Dunn as an outfielder. I agree with a lot of what he says, but something is amiss if the argument is that Dunn's worse than Griffey as an OF. Really, just watch one game.
    I watched plenty and I disagree with your assessment. Both are below average I would say. The thing is, even if (and this is a big IF in my mind) Dunn is better than Griffey in the outfield, compared to his peers, Griffey is much closer to the competition than Dunn is.

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    Re: The Value of our 2007 Cincinnati Reds

    FB, I think Junior gets a boost because he is still reliable on balls hit close to his position whereas Dunn struggles both with routine plays and a lack of any range. I'd agree with your assessment but this is where "scouting" skills are used in conjunction with the "numbers". Obviously both are bad fielders (and where I disagree with many that you can have a successful team that includes a number of poor fielders even if their offensive numbers seem to indicate that their defense is compensated for)and I remain firmly convinced the Reds won't become truly competitive until one of them is replaced or a true centerfielder is found.

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    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: The Value of our 2007 Cincinnati Reds

    Quote Originally Posted by Falls City Beer View Post
    Did I say anything about methodology?

    I said Griffey's worse than Dunn as an outfielder. I agree with a lot of what he says, but something is amiss if the argument is that Dunn's worse than Griffey as an OF. Really, just watch one game.
    Methodology is the way you make a decision. Your decision is based on, presumably, you watching X number of games. Justin's is based off of a variety of sources, both qualitative and quantitative and is vetted.

    I've watched lots of games. I think they are both bad outfielders. Both of them have horrific range. Neither of them can make a play out of their zone. Dunn also struggles with the ones inside of his. Griffey is pretty solid on those. That would be my qualitative assessment, Justin's numbers aside. I disagree with you even when using my own eyes. That an incredibly exhaustive analysis bears it out is great.

    I suppose you could tell me who the best hitters are by watching some games too, completely ignoring any data.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

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    Re: The Value of our 2007 Cincinnati Reds

    FCB, honest question here.... you are apparently in Philly, how many Reds games do you see a year?

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    Re: The Value of our 2007 Cincinnati Reds

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    FCB, honest question here.... you are apparently in Philly, how many Reds games do you see a year?
    I saw at least 135 Reds games and probably another 100 or so of other teams and IMO Griffey was the pits, he didn't step into right until ST and the ball goes to the corners a whole lot different then it does to CF, he looked lost and had a hell of a time digging them out of the corners.

    Just a horrible RF he is at this juncture.

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    Re: The Value of our 2007 Cincinnati Reds

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post

    I suppose you could tell me who the best hitters are by watching some games too, completely ignoring any data.
    Well, except offensive metrics are far more reliable than defensive ones. Round and round we go.

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    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: The Value of our 2007 Cincinnati Reds

    Let's remember that this is a comparison to average. It's quite possible that in 2007, LF were better defensively than RF, especially with guys like Soriano, Damon, Carl Crawford, Eric Byrnes out there. Thus, Dunn was held to a higher standard, particularly in regards to expected range. I have no idea if it's true, just throwing it out there.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

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    Re: The Value of our 2007 Cincinnati Reds

    Quote Originally Posted by westofyou View Post
    I saw at least 135 Reds games and probably another 100 or so of other teams and IMO Griffey was the pits, he didn't step into right until ST and the ball goes to the corners a whole lot different then it does to CF, he looked lost and had a hell of a time digging them out of the corners.

    Just a horrible RF he is at this juncture.
    I won't deny that Griffey is below average in RF.... but that has little to do with how bad Dunn is in LF really. Both suck out there, but I have yet to find anything that suggests Griffey sucks more than Dunn does compared to his positional peers.

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    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: The Value of our 2007 Cincinnati Reds

    Quote Originally Posted by Falls City Beer View Post
    Well, except offensive metrics are far more reliable than defensive ones. Round and round we go.
    I have no clue what bearing that statement has on this conversation.

    Saying that A (offensive statistics) is better than B (fielding statistics) does not discredit B relative to C (FCB's opinion).

    I'll take a thorough quantitative AND qualitative method of evaluation (Justin included the Fan's Scouting Report) over some random dude's opinion who doesn't see the fielders in person often and isn't a trained scout.

    And really, on what basis are we deciding what "reliable" means? Does it mean accepted? Because there are lots of really good offensive stats that aren't widely used or accepted. Does it mean accurate? How do you judge the accuracy of a stat? How warm it makes your tummy? 10 years ago people looked at you funny if you used OPS as a way to evaluate offensive production. The calculation hasn't changed at all, but now it's become standard and considered "reliable".

    In no way would I say those defensive metrics are perfect. Nor would I say they're as "reliable" (aka, accurate representations of the player's performance) as some offensive metrics. But I'm 100% comfortable saying they're as good or better than any other way of evaluating defense currently there, including the "because FCB watched some games and decided" method.
    Last edited by RedsManRick; 11-09-2007 at 12:48 PM.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.


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