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Thread: The Value of our 2007 Cincinnati Reds

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  1. #9
    Five Tool Fool jojo's Avatar
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    Nov 2006

    Re: The Value of our 2007 Cincinnati Reds

    Quote Originally Posted by Austin Kearns View Post
    I would have to say that Dunn is a better LF than Griffey is a RF. One key here is that there is a lot more quality RF'ders than there are LF'ders.

    Dunn is clearly a bad fielder, you won't getany argument from me there, but Griffey is just as bad, while playing a position with more skilled peers. Griffey has no speed any more. He can'tdo much more than a jog out there, even at top speed.

    Also, you can tell Griffey is new to the position. As WOY noted he had huge troubles on the bounces out of the RF corner, and for the most part I felt that he had trouble reading the ball off the bat. Again, hard to blame him since he' played nothing but CF his entire life, but he doesn't know where the ball is going.
    The difference between left field and right field defense isn't nearly as dramatic as the corners versus CF. Some years, the corners could almost be interchangeable in terms of defensive talent. Righfield defense in general was down this season particularly in the American league. In '07 there probably isn't much difference between LF and RF.

    Concerning directly comparing Dunn and Jr defensively, here's what a survey of advanced defensive metrics thinks about '07:

    UZR: -15*
    Dewan (+/-): -29 plays (roughly -20 runs)
    Justin's translated THT data: -18

    UZR: -16
    Dewan (+/-): somewhere between +6 and -10 (+4 to -8 runs)
    Justin's translated THT data: -18

    A few caveats: Dunn's UZR is an estimate based upon mid season projections and MGL's abbreviated list of data he's released for the worst left fielders in the AL and NL (Dunn will be better than -18 but his mid season projection was for -29 so he won't be much better than -18). Also, Dewan's score for Jr is given as a range because Dewan's full set of data hasn't been released and we know from the fielding awards that Jr wasn't in the top tier (cut off +6) or the worst tier (cut off -11). Conservatively, I think most would agree he was closer to -11 than +6.

    Really the assessments by these metrics are pretty consistent. Basically neither are good and the difference between the two in year one of Jr as a RFer probably isn't worth arguing about though Jr grades out slightly better as Dewan's system was kinder to him than other systems. Dunn looks to be legitimately approaching a -2 win defender. PMR is being released now and it should help further illuminate this issue. As a CFer, Jr probably was the worst defensive outfielder in the game. However, as expected, moving him to a corner has mitigated the defensive damage his glove causes though he is still one of the worst defensive Rfers in the game.

    Take home message: It is tough to find a team that plays worse corner outfield defense than the Reds.
    Last edited by jojo; 11-10-2007 at 10:14 AM.
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

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