One other point to be considered. Metrics measure what happened and only that. We should be careful not to interpret them otherwise. Your eyes see what happens and then merge that with everything else you've ever seen and know about that player.
Can you, FCB, really differentiate Junior's 2007 performance from any pre-existing bias you've had about his ability? Can you differentiate his 2007 performance from your general assessment of his current ability? Can you do this both for Dunn and Junior, relative to the performances of their peers in 2007?
It's quite possible that both the following things are true:
1.) Ken Griffey Jr is a worse outfielder than Adam Dunn in a general sense -- if they had to make the exact same plays, Dunn would better.
2.) Ken Griffey Jr had a better defensive season in 2007 relative to the other people at his position than did Adam Dunn.
The metrics you've seen posted in this thread only speaks to the second point. I find often that people discrediting quantitative measurement do so largely after they incorrectly inflate the scope of the intended interpretation. I suspect that that is at least partially going on in this case, and with critiques of defensive performance in general.
Last edited by RedsManRick; 11-09-2007 at 12:09 PM.
Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.
IMO, it's a slippery slope to equate the offensive runs with highly theoretical fielding runs. Technically it should add up to your team's overall +/- compared to the rest of the league, but it can't even get you close to that.
Also, Votto's -4.1 runs below average number in 23 games in the field (more like 21 games if you go by innings played) is highly suspect.
Baseball isn't a magic trick ... it doesn't get spoiled if you figure out how it works. - gonelong
I'm witchcrafting everybody.
Hey, you two if you have disagreements that are personal in nature, take it out back or in the PM center.
Otherwise, be civil and keep it on topic before we hang a "Sorry, We're Closed" sign out.
Some people play baseball. Baseball plays Jay Bruce.
I would have to say that Dunn is a better LF than Griffey is a RF. One key here is that there is a lot more quality RF'ders than there are LF'ders.
Dunn is clearly a bad fielder, you won't getany argument from me there, but Griffey is just as bad, while playing a position with more skilled peers. Griffey has no speed any more. He can'tdo much more than a jog out there, even at top speed.
Also, you can tell Griffey is new to the position. As WOY noted he had huge troubles on the bounces out of the RF corner, and for the most part I felt that he had trouble reading the ball off the bat. Again, hard to blame him since he' played nothing but CF his entire life, but he doesn't know where the ball is going.
To the point of the thread, and to FBC's comments, have you read Justin's work? Justin has done a ton of great analysis over there and it merits much more discussion than this chippy back and forth.
Last edited by RedsManRick; 11-09-2007 at 02:52 PM.
I would absolutely love to hear what M2, Steel, and WOY have to say on the matter, particularly in regards to the numbers (and methodology behind them) which is the subject of this thread.
Last edited by RedsManRick; 11-09-2007 at 03:17 PM.
I could see RF'ders going towards that definition too, and that would have to be the mian reason. But I still find most RF'ders to be much more athletic and therefore better fielders.
Yes I did, and I thought it was a terrific analysis, but I'm still skeptical of most defensive metrics. I like them to compare players within the same position, but when they are translated from different positions or into run values, I find they become extremely questionable.To the point of the thread, and to FBC's comments, have you read Justin's work? Justin has done a ton of great analysis over there and it merits much more discussion than this chippy back and forth.
Arguing about who is a worse outfielder--Griffey or Dunn--strikes me as arguing over who is more of an obnoxious drunk: Britney Spears or Lindsay Lohan?
We'll burn that bridge when we get to it.