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Thread: Now is the time to act

  1. #1
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    Now is the time to act

    Never in recent memory have so many frontline starting pitchers allegedly been available in a trade. While many of these "rumors" may just be posturing and fluff thrown out there to keep bloggers and media types busy speculating, I have to believe where there is smoke, there is fire. In other words, some of these guys have to be available.

    While I know anyone is always available for the right price and yadda yadda yadda, I am used to hearing about such and such pitcher being untouchable. This year that is not the case. And I believe the Reds must take advantage of this fact.

    For the first time in a long time, the Reds have an overabundance of hitting talent. They have four superstar prospects that are all virtually major league ready. They also have a true ace for the first time in well over a decade. In other words, they are perfectly positioned to make a serious play for one of these top-notch pitchers. They have to take advantage of this situation, because the stars haven't lined up like this in some time. The FA market for pitching is the also the weakest it has been in some time, and with management now "dedicated to winning" its time to act, and make a trade to acquire a big-time pitcher. Each of the following is *allegedly* available according to some published reports:

    Johan Santana
    Jake Peavy
    Erik Bedard
    Scott Kazmir
    Ben Sheets
    AJ Burnett
    Matt Garza
    Dontrelle Willis
    Chris Capuano
    Scott Baker
    Boof Bonser
    Kevin Slowey

    Obviously the names on the list vary greatly in talent, but any one of them would be a welcome addition to the Reds rotation, and would probably make the Reds an instant contender. Take your pick, the prices will vary, but they need to make a play for one of them. Decide which one the Reds should go after and why, what the price would be, how realistic it is that they'll be traded, and discuss away...
    Last edited by Benihana; 11-09-2007 at 04:15 PM.
    Go BLUE!!!

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  3. #2
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Now is the time to act

    Everyone is available for the right price. If the Reds offered Bruce, Bailey, Harang and Cueto to a team, I don't think anyone would turn them down for any single player in baseball....

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    Re: Now is the time to act

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    Everyone is available for the right price. If the Reds offered Bruce, Bailey, Harang and Cueto to a team, I don't think anyone would turn them down for any single player in baseball....
    Thanks, Doug. The point is, if published reports are to be believed, these guys are really available for serious discussion. Some of them I believe (Santana, Willis, Baker, etc.) some of them I don't think are serious (Peavy).

    Personally, I would offer Stubbs and Freel for Capuano, and see where it goes from there. If they prefer bullpen help, I would offer Weathers for Capuano straight up.

    My second target would be Garza, and I would offer Hamilton and Alex Gonzalez.
    Last edited by Benihana; 11-09-2007 at 12:33 PM.
    Go BLUE!!!

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    Posting in Dynarama M2's Avatar
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    Re: Now is the time to act

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    Everyone is available for the right price.
    Baseball isn't a magic trick ... it doesn't get spoiled if you figure out how it works. - gonelong

    I'm witchcrafting everybody.

  6. #5
    Tired of talk. Win! Joseph's Avatar
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    Re: Now is the time to act

    All these guys are available simply because the free agent market is thin and the teams are hoping for someone to offer a Herschel Walker type trade.

    I don't think you can put together even a 'fair' trade and get one, it will take an offer that is unbalanced in favor of the holding team.

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    Re: Now is the time to act

    Johan Santana and Jake Peavy: I put these two in the same mold. Ridiculously good. What would get them though? Dunn, Travis Wood, Homer, and cash? Is that too much for the Reds to give up, or not enough for the other teams to get in return? I would have to know I can re-sign them though. Don't want Johan as a rental for our good players.

    Ben Sheets - Fragile man, but would love to have him. I don't like to deal with division rivals, unless you feel you can get him for less than you think he is worth. Sheets and Shouse, for Stormy and Hamilton.

    AJ Burnett and Matt Garza - Not sure what I would give up for these two. But I would like them.

    I also like Slowey. Not too sure of there needs in MIN, guessing a CF'er is one though. Hambone +1 for Slowey. See where they lean on that.
    Last edited by TOBTTReds; 11-09-2007 at 12:36 PM.

  8. #7
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Now is the time to act

    Well my point was more along the lines that while guys may be 'available', its going to take a kings ransom to get them (like Peavy for example). I mean if we called the Phillies and said 'what would it take to get Cole Hamels?' I think they entertain the idea and at least make a proposal back, of course the odds of us meeting it would be very slim. As for Willis being available, I wouldn't offer much of anything for him that is of value.

  9. #8
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: Now is the time to act

    I'm finding this offseason fascinating. I don't think anybody is truly more or less available than they've been in the past. It's just that teams are more comfortable asking for what they really think the player is worth, thanks to the high end of the market being so high with guys like Santana and Cabrera being floated. Everybody wants a piece of the top 3 prospects for a pitcher market.

    What is funny about it is that in doing so, they are essentially flooding the market with supply, which will bring the price down a bit, and in turn make those very same people unwilling to make any deals because the return isn't what they'd thought it would be. Classic economics.

    The best offshoot of this is that we're likely to see a more efficient market thanks to the level activity, as evidenced by the GM meeting introductions.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

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    Re: Now is the time to act

    Quote Originally Posted by Joseph View Post
    All these guys are available simply because the free agent market is thin and the teams are hoping for someone to offer a Herschel Walker type trade.

    I don't think you can put together even a 'fair' trade and get one, it will take an offer that is unbalanced in favor of the holding team.
    Absolutely agree. Teams are looking mostly for a haul of young talent for these guys and the expectation is probably your very best top ranked prospects- 3 or 4 of them. I think you'll see more players available that used to be untouchable if you're willing to part with prospect #1, #2 and #3 in your system. How many of these guys do I want if it cost Bruce, Bailey and Cueto or Bruce, Votto, Bailey and Cueto? I'm not sure even Santana is worth cutting out your heart for. It makes sense if a team has the money to plug in free agents while they rebuild their system (especially if they believe they have viable prospect replacements already in the lower minors) or if a team feels a single guy puts them "over the top". My problem with a deal like that at this moment, is that I don't believe a single deal for any one pitcher would make the Reds a serious contender (and I mean World Series - to parcel out your best future chips in one piece I want to know there's an actual shot at winning it all).

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    Moderator RedlegJake's Avatar
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    Re: Now is the time to act

    I'd love to take a shot at Burnett if he could be had cheap - that's the only way he's worth the risk because of that contract. The one year cost is a risk I'd take at a decent price but the option years are deal killer for me.

    Garza - I'd be working the phones on him for sure. Capuano and Bonser, too. Heck I'd trade for Bonser just because of that name. One of the great sports names ever. Of course, I'm NOT a GM so I can say crazy things like that.

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    Re: Now is the time to act

    Quote Originally Posted by RedlegJake View Post
    Absolutely agree. Teams are looking mostly for a haul of young talent for these guys and the expectation is probably your very best top ranked prospects- 3 or 4 of them. I think you'll see more players available that used to be untouchable if you're willing to part with prospect #1, #2 and #3 in your system. How many of these guys do I want if it cost Bruce, Bailey and Cueto or Bruce, Votto, Bailey and Cueto? I'm not sure even Santana is worth cutting out your heart for. It makes sense if a team has the money to plug in free agents while they rebuild their system (especially if they believe they have viable prospect replacements already in the lower minors) or if a team feels a single guy puts them "over the top". My problem with a deal like that at this moment, is that I don't believe a single deal for any one pitcher would make the Reds a serious contender (and I mean World Series - to parcel out your best future chips in one piece I want to know there's an actual shot at winning it all).
    I don't think acquiring Dontrelle Willis, Chris Capuano, Scott Baker, Kevin Slowey or Boof Bonser would mandate the Reds giving up Jay Bruce, Homer Bailey, or Johnny Cueto at all.

    You don't have to go after Santana, you can settle for a solid #2 or #3. And acquiring a solid #2 or #3 would make the Reds instant contenders for the division, if not the pennant.
    Go BLUE!!!

  13. #12
    RZ Chamber of Commerce Unassisted's Avatar
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    Re: Now is the time to act

    Quote Originally Posted by Joseph View Post
    All these guys are available simply because the free agent market is thin and the teams are hoping for someone to offer a Herschel Walker type trade.

    I don't think you can put together even a 'fair' trade and get one, it will take an offer that is unbalanced in favor of the holding team.
    I agree. Starters are the most desired commodity in the game and the Reds would have to mortgage their future to reel in one of these guys. Considering that they really need two starters to round out the rotation, it would be short-sighted for them to put all of their chips onto just one of these guy's squares.
    /r/reds

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    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Now is the time to act

    Quote Originally Posted by Benihana View Post
    I don't think acquiring Dontrelle Willis, Chris Capuano, Scott Baker, Kevin Slowey or Boof Bonser would mandate the Reds giving up Jay Bruce, Homer Bailey, or Johnny Cueto at all.

    You don't have to go after Santana, you can settle for a solid #2 or #3. And acquiring a solid #2 or #3 would make the Reds instant contenders for the division, if not the pennant.
    True, but Capuano, Slowey, Willis and Bonser don't fit that criteria.....
    Scott Baker is someone I would make an offer for. Edwin could probably be a solid starting point for him if not straight up.

  15. #14
    Waitin til next year bucksfan2's Avatar
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    Re: Now is the time to act

    Quote Originally Posted by Unassisted View Post
    I agree. Starters are the most desired commodity in the game and the Reds would have to mortgage their future to reel in one of these guys. Considering that they really need two starters to round out the rotation, it would be short-sighted for them to put all of their chips onto just one of these guy's squares.
    I agree completely. When you consider trading for pitchers you have to consider how the move effects the organization. A trade for Santana, Willis, Peavy, Sheets, Burnett is going to take a Bruce or Bailey + package, if not both together. This would set the reds organizatoin back quite a bit. Sure it would be great to see one of those guys to compliment Harang and Arroyo but IMO the cost would be too high.

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    Re: Now is the time to act

    I remember how I felt when I saw Greg Vaughn's name on the ESPN ticker as having been traded. I quickly thought that it would be great if the Reds had got him and then the rest of the trade came up. I hope the Reds are able to picck up someone of that magnitude without selling too many of the prospects. I actually have faith that they can (otherwise without such belief it will be a long off-season.)


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