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Thread: Is it smart to deal Bailey/Cueto?

  1. #1
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    Is it smart to deal Bailey/Cueto?

    With all the trade possibilities discussed involving Bailey and Cueto I have to know how many really believe it's smart for a small market team to trade away blue chip pitching prospects.

    Pitching wins championships - I think most agree on that point (except for those people suggesting we trade Bailey for Cabrera!). I understand you have to give up talent to get talent and we need more pitching talent. But pitching is extremely expensive - note the $8 million we're all familiar with for EM. We're a small market team with limited ability to buy and keep expensive pitching. I believe if Castellini wants to make the Reds a long term contender - not a one or 2 year splash - he needs to make Bailey and Cueto untouchable unless a similarly young - talented arm is coming back in return. Trade any 2 or 3 of Votto, Hamilton, EE, Dunn, Gonzo for pitching. (As a fan I'd rather see Griffey retire here with a championship). But don't trade Bailey and Cueto.

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    Re: Is it smart to deal Bailey/Cueto?

    Don't trade Votto, Bailey, Cueto, or Bruce unless it's a ridiculous deal you can't refuse. They will be good and cheap for years to come.

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    Re: Is it smart to deal Bailey/Cueto?

    I'm so glad you started a "small market economics" thread because I've been wanting to do it for a while, but didn't want to bore everyone w/ my calculators and horn-rimmed glasses.

    I'm an economics major - fiscal conversative and I'm all for the Reds trading Bruce, Cueto,and Bailey as long as the return means top-tier pitching ace(s) ...read Bedard, Kazmir, Peavey, Santana. Although, I don't think Santana would be the wisest economic move because I think he's only under contract for one more year. The other pitchers would be a decent choice for our economic status.
    1. Bedard: Under Contract through 2009 - got paid $3.4 mil in 2007 but is eligible for arbitration the next 2 years - still would be very reasonable for an Ace pitcher
    2. Kasmir: Under Contract through 2010 - got paid $0.4 mil in 2007 but is eligible for arbitrarion from here on out - still really reasonable!!!
    3. Peavey: Under Contract through 2009 - '08 gets $6mil and '09 club option, he gets $8mil ... I think we can all agree that that's a bargain by today's standard

    Yes, even though all three of these guys are more expensive than Bruce, Bailey, & Cueto they are ready NOW and can really contribute NOW, whereas our prospects aren't and won't be for a couple years. We've got Harang & Arroyo now and may not by the time Bruce, Bailey, Cueto have reached their full potential.

    If we could manage landing two of (Bedard, Peavey, Kazmir) for some combo of Bruce, Bailey, Cueto, and some throw ins, then we definitely should. We need to spend some $$$ on a closer and maybe another reliever and then we have an excellent chance at winning the division - maybe more!!! The mix of our expensive players (Dunn, Griffey) w/ these cheaper Aces (specifically Bedard and Kazmir) and WINNING ... we will fill GABP for the next 2 years and will create amazing revenue that by the time we start having to cough up more money for these newly acquired starters we might actually be able afford them and maybe not have to worry so much about "small market economics" afterall.... it's called turning around an organization, my friends :-)
    Last edited by hippie07; 11-10-2007 at 01:57 PM.

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    Re: Is it smart to deal Bailey/Cueto?

    I agree with the above posters.... unless you can get a proven starting pitcher (that isnt at the end of his career) I would hold onto them. I would be more likely to move Votto or Bruce but thats just because we seem to cycle offensive players pretty regularly here and not so much pitchers.

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    Re: Is it smart to deal Bailey/Cueto?

    NO

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    Re: Is it smart to deal Bailey/Cueto?

    I don't want to trade Bailey and Cueto for some unproven major league pitcher with potential like Garza.

    But if you can get someone with a 4-7 year track record of success like Bedard, Kazmir or Peavy........that's a whole 'nother story. I'm still not sold on Bailey anyway.
    Who's on first?

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    Re: Is it smart to deal Bailey/Cueto?

    I think both Bailey and Cueto have the potential to be top of the rotation starters. However, Bailey needs to work some more on his off-speed pitches and Cueto needs to spend some more time at AAA. I would only trade either pitcher if we could get a proven top of the rotation starter who can win now.

  9. #8
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    Re: Is it smart to deal Bailey/Cueto?

    UPR- Is it smart to deal Bailey/Cueto?

    NO. If the Reds trade any of the up and coming young players named Bruce,Votto, Bailey, Cueto and Maloney we will soon regret the trade(s) for years to come.

    I want the Reds to be smart and pay fairly for pitching. Not overpaying for it. We have several players other teams want. It's time for WK to show his poker face, be patient (but not overly so) and be the competent GM I think he can be. This is Krivsky's chance to make an incredible mark on this team the way Bob Howsam did in the late 1960's and early 70's as the Reds General Manager.

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    Re: Is it smart to deal Bailey/Cueto?

    Agreed. But I'd let Votto go for pitching talent.

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    Re: Is it smart to deal Bailey/Cueto?

    Deal them both before they are revealed as frauds IE all the Reds pitching prospects since Tom Browning.
    I was in the ORG once, best 6 months of my life.

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    Re: Is it smart to deal Bailey/Cueto?

    Quote Originally Posted by redsfanmia View Post
    Deal them both before they are revealed as frauds IE all the Reds pitching prospects since Tom Browning.
    Yes... and while we're at it, let's add a rule that the Reds are not allowed to have a winning season for the next ten years.

  13. #12
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    Re: Is it smart to deal Bailey/Cueto?

    As some have already said, the futures of these players is too high to deal them, unless the deal is rediculious.
    If you can't build a winning team with that core a fire-sale isn't the solution. Selling the franchise, moving them to Nashville and converting GABP into a used car lot is.
    -LTlabner

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    Re: Is it smart to deal Bailey/Cueto?

    Quote Originally Posted by AdamDunn View Post
    Yes... and while we're at it, let's add a rule that the Reds are not allowed to have a winning season for the next ten years.
    Current ownership and management will take care of that no need for a rule.
    I was in the ORG once, best 6 months of my life.

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    Re: Is it smart to deal Bailey/Cueto?

    You should never rule a player to be untouchable. It seems that no team in baseball is willing to deal away top prospects no matter what the deal is offered. The refusal to deal top prospects make the prospects value higher than it may ever be again in their career. So, if a deal came for a big time pitcher, a number one, for a couple of top prospects and you could lock up the pitcher to a long term deal then the team should go for it. The only time a team shouldn't consider trading a top prospect is if they feel the player could be a once in a generation type of player. A player of the Griffey, Pujols, or Pay-Rod level. For that I don't think Bruce should be traded for any player. But Bailey, Cueto, Votto, Hamilton, etc; I would trade them for a big time pitcher like Santana . I wouldn't deal prospects of their caliber for a pitcher like Dontrelle Willis who has had more than one 'off' year.

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    Re: Is it smart to deal Bailey/Cueto?

    Bob Howsam not only grew some good players in our farm system, but he also traded for some good players too. The Big Reds Machine wasn't just Pete Rose and Johnny Bench.

    And I agree with whoever said the Reds track record of developing starting pitchers isn't that good. We could be overvaluing Bailey and Cueto and passing up a deal for better pitching before they reveal they aren't that good. Their stock will never be higher than now, unless they pan out.........and that remains to be seen.
    Who's on first?


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