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Thread: Yahoo: Reds "A move or two" away from contending

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    Worst Behavior. reds44's Avatar
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    Yahoo: Reds "A move or two" away from contending

    http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/news?slu...yhoo&type=lgns

    WISH LIST

    In baseball's low-revenue markets, flexibility comes at a premium. The ability to maneuver without albatross contracts constraining a team's payroll is the truest sign of good management.

    All of this matters to the Cincinnati Reds because such an issue is their Catch-22. Ken Griffey Jr., baseball's biggest superstar when he joined the Reds in 2000, will make $12.5 million this season. Adam Dunn, the Reds' biggest producer, is due $13 million. That means more than 36 percent of Cincinnati's payroll goes to two players.

    So while general manager Wayne Krivsky understands he needs a solid No. 3 starter to work behind Aaron Harang and Bronson Arroyo, the team, as currently comprised, fills up the expected $70 million payroll. So no Carlos Silva, no Livan Hernandez not even the return of Kyle Lohse.

    If the Reds want any shot at overhauling themselves, they must trade Dunn or Junior or both. Dunn, a 40-homer machine, would seem a perfect target if he didn't have a no-trade clause through June 15. Whichever team wants Dunn might get him to waive the contract provision with a bonus payment or contract extension. Selling Griffey isn't much easier. He's a 10-and-5 guy 10 years in the big leagues, five with the same team meaning he can veto any deal. And he'll be 38 next year.

    Krivsky straddles a rough situation: win now to save his job or build the Reds and hope he'll be around to enjoy it when they win. And in his bubble, there's not much room to move.

    REALITY CHECK

    Were Krivsky to unload Dunn for a top prospect and get another solid one for Griffey, the Reds could emerge with the best core in the game.

    Brandon Phillips is a 30-home run, Gold Glove-caliber second baseman. Josh Hamilton, so stunningly talented, will only get better in center field as he continues to play. First baseman Joey Votto has raked at every minor-league level. And then there's Jay Bruce. He might be the best player in the minor leagues, a well-put-together Texan who slugged. .567 in nearly 200 Triple-A at-bats last season and will be 20 on Opening Day.

    Can't forget the pitching, either. On top of Harang, the terminally underrated right-hander, and Arroyo, the Reds also boast one of the top pitching prospects in the game, Homer Bailey, and another who could be just as good: 21-year-old Dominican Johnny Cueto.

    Point is, the Reds are a move, maybe two, from contending in the putrid Central. The talent is there, even if Krivsky unloads Dunn and Griffey. So, Cincinnati hopes, is the motivation: The Reds will pay new manager Dusty Baker $3.5 million a year to straighten out a team that underachieved last year.

    Bringing in Baker was, apparently, a sign that the Reds are serious about winning, and even if general wisdom doesn't say so, his credentials do: 14 seasons, three first-place finishes and a .527 winning percentage. Now, of course, comes the tough part: Convincing Cincinnati, seven years and running without a postseason appearance, that he can make a difference.

    Certainly a more optimistic outlook then most.

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    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Yahoo: Reds "A move or two" away from contending

    I think he is along the right lines... so long as if we 'unload' Griffey or Dunn that Hamilton stays healthy and produces.

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    The Lineups stink. KronoRed's Avatar
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    Re: Yahoo: Reds "A move or two" away from contending

    The often said "dump Dunn and JR for prospects" is really getting ridiculous, teams are hoarding prospects now, two would be free agents who are defensively challenged are not going to bring this team the help it needs

    IMO.
    Go Gators!

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    Re: Yahoo: Reds "A move or two" away from contending

    Quote Originally Posted by KronoRed View Post
    The often said "dump Dunn and JR for prospects" is really getting ridiculous, teams are hoarding prospects now, two would be free agents who are defensively challenged are not going to bring this team the help it needs

    IMO.
    Dunn could, Griff couldn't. But Hamilton could probably bring more.
    Last edited by Benihana; 11-13-2007 at 04:06 PM.
    Go BLUE!!!

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    Making sense of it all Matt700wlw's Avatar
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    Re: Yahoo: Reds "A move or two" away from contending

    I'd "dump" Junior just to free up the money.

    There's no sense in having him and Dunn roaming the outfield again next season if they can get around it...

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    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: Yahoo: Reds "A move or two" away from contending

    The Reds have as good a core of talent of anybody in the Central this side of Milwaukee. However, Milwaukee has a real problem with their defense and is shaping up to look like a better version of the early 2000's Reds.

    A move or two away from contention is right, so long as we understand contention to be equivilent to the right side of .500. Contention as most of baseball considers it - 90+ wins, is probably 3 or 4 of the right moves away.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

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    Re: Yahoo: Reds "A move or two" away from contending

    Good article. Focuses on the issue of imbalance in payroll where the key position, pitching, is secondary to the corners of the outfield. Also understands that the Reds have a lot of young talent and a that a few shrewd moves can boost the team's fortunes.

    I hope Krivsky sees things this way.
    Last edited by Kc61; 11-13-2007 at 07:38 PM.

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    BobC, get a legit F.O.! Mario-Rijo's Avatar
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    Re: Yahoo: Reds "A move or two" away from contending

    Quote Originally Posted by KronoRed View Post
    The often said "dump Dunn and JR for prospects" is really getting ridiculous, teams are hoarding prospects now, two would be free agents who are defensively challenged are not going to bring this team the help it needs

    IMO.
    Just my opinion but your failing to address the point. Jr dealt free's up both $$$ and a position for Bruce or Hamilton to play full time. Trading Dunn brings us both solid talent in return and free's up more money and a full time position for the other half of that equation. The prospects we get in return for Jr are quite frankly meaningless to the bottom line.

    That bottom line is we are not going to win with Griffey on this team, his offense is going downhill (I feel rapidly) and his defense is well below average. Dunn doesn't necc need to go but Griffey leaving would be a plus for this team's ability to win IMHO.

    Everyone keeps discussing how Hamilton may be fragile, but what if he's not. If he's not then we may very well be selling very low on him because he has great talent and insticts and he is still quite young enough to become a megastar in every facet of the game. Anyone remember Anthony Munoz? He blew out both knees in college, what if Paul Brown had said this guy has a history of getting hurt so I'll pass? I'll tell ya what would have happened, probably not even any SB appearances for the Bengals.
    "You can't let praise or criticism get to you. It's a weakness to get caught up in either one."

    --Woody Hayes

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    Posting in Dynarama M2's Avatar
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    Re: Yahoo: Reds "A move or two" away from contending

    All the Reds need to win is PayFlex? Cool. I knew PayFlex had game!
    Baseball isn't a magic trick ... it doesn't get spoiled if you figure out how it works. - gonelong

    I'm witchcrafting everybody.

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    BobC, get a legit F.O.! Mario-Rijo's Avatar
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    Re: Yahoo: Reds "A move or two" away from contending

    Quote Originally Posted by M2 View Post
    All the Reds need to win is PayFlex? Cool. I knew PayFlex had game!
    If that's a shot at my post it's absolutely not what I was alluding too. The freed up spot in the OF and the lineup IMO is the cake and the payflex is the icing.
    "You can't let praise or criticism get to you. It's a weakness to get caught up in either one."

    --Woody Hayes

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    "Let's Roll" TeamBoone's Avatar
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    Re: Yahoo: Reds "A move or two" away from contending

    It really irks me when just about EVERYONE thinks Adam Dunn is worth nothing more than a prospect. Really really irks me.

    He gets absolutely no respect.
    "Enjoy this Reds fans, you are watching a legend grow up before your very eyes" ... DoogMinAmo on Adam Dunn

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    Worst Behavior. reds44's Avatar
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    Re: Yahoo: Reds "A move or two" away from contending

    Quote Originally Posted by Mario-Rijo View Post
    Just my opinion but your failing to address the point. Jr dealt free's up both $$$ and a position for Bruce or Hamilton to play full time. Trading Dunn brings us both solid talent in return and free's up more money and a full time position for the other half of that equation. The prospects we get in return for Jr are quite frankly meaningless to the bottom line.

    That bottom line is we are not going to win with Griffey on this team, his offense is going downhill (I feel rapidly) and his defense is well below average. Dunn doesn't necc need to go but Griffey leaving would be a plus for this team's ability to win IMHO.

    Everyone keeps discussing how Hamilton may be fragile, but what if he's not. If he's not then we may very well be selling very low on him because he has great talent and insticts and he is still quite young enough to become a megastar in every facet of the game. Anyone remember Anthony Munoz? He blew out both knees in college, what if Paul Brown had said this guy has a history of getting hurt so I'll pass? I'll tell ya what would have happened, probably not even any SB appearances for the Bengals.
    You make some interesting points. I don't see this happening, but what if the Reds went REALLY young to begin 2008? What if they delt Griffey and Dunn (or even just Griffey) and had Bruce and Hamilton in the OF on opening day? What if Cueto and Bailey were both in the opening day rotation? What would people's reactions be to it?

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    Box of Frogs edabbs44's Avatar
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    Re: Yahoo: Reds "A move or two" away from contending

    Quote Originally Posted by TeamBoone View Post
    It really irks me when just about EVERYONE thinks Adam Dunn is worth nothing more than a prospect. Really really irks me.

    He gets absolutely no respect.
    Not sure about just one prospect. I think people realize he's worth the plural tense of that word.

    Also, don't forget that prospects come with millions in extra money to spend.

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    "Let's Roll" TeamBoone's Avatar
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    Re: Yahoo: Reds "A move or two" away from contending

    Quote Originally Posted by edabbs44 View Post
    Not sure about just one prospect. I think people realize he's worth the plural tense of that word.

    Also, don't forget that prospects come with millions in extra money to spend.
    Even if it's two, it's not enough for a slugger like Dunn. He's proven; prospects are not.

    And I don't trust anyone on the Reds staff to spend those millions wisely. More likely than not, the team will end up with next to nothing and its best player (leading in several categories) will be gone as well.

    If they deal him, they'll have a huge offensive hole to fill. I don't see that happening.
    "Enjoy this Reds fans, you are watching a legend grow up before your very eyes" ... DoogMinAmo on Adam Dunn

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    BobC, get a legit F.O.! Mario-Rijo's Avatar
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    Re: Yahoo: Reds "A move or two" away from contending

    Quote Originally Posted by reds44 View Post
    You make some interesting points. I don't see this happening, but what if the Reds went REALLY young to begin 2008? What if they delt Griffey and Dunn (or even just Griffey) and had Bruce and Hamilton in the OF on opening day? What if Cueto and Bailey were both in the opening day rotation? What would people's reactions be to it?
    I think it would make us better right away. Sure Griffey and Dunn are proven run producers who would likely be missed for a time perhaps even for a yr or so. But quite frankly this launching pad we call a ballpark doesn't need 'em to produce runs. But what we do need is better pitching, better defense and time for our young offensive players to grow.

    My fear is the longer Griffey remains on the team the further away from contention they will be. Dunn although not ideal in LF would be reasonable to keep due to his offense and now experience, but we cannot afford to have 2 below avg defenders out there if for nothing else our pitcher's sake.

    If you need proof of that just look at how few HR's we are actually giving considering the park we play in and look at how many hits we are giving up. We are a team who doesn't walk many and again doesn't give up so many long balls that we can afford to continue to give up so many hits. Which is in large part due to our defense.

    Edwin still isn't a defensive gem but he still has the potential too be, and he has shown improvement. Votto hasn't shown enough to draw a conclusion, the MI is fine. We have guys who can man CF proficiently in Hopper and Freel and who knows perhaps a Bruce or Dickerson. But we already know about LF and RF, one we can likely manage but 2 we cannot continue to put out there.
    "You can't let praise or criticism get to you. It's a weakness to get caught up in either one."

    --Woody Hayes


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